| What's happening? Trade talks are at "the moment of truth" but both sides warn they are still far apart. The public warnings couldn't be starker. On Thursday, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that post-Brexit talks with the European Union are in a "serious situation." David Frost, Johnson's chief negotiator, said negotiations seemed "blocked." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of "big differences" between the two sides. Behind the rhetoric, officials in Brussels are still hopeful that a deal can still be struck before next week. Pessimism is to be expected at this stage, they say, both as a negotiating tactic and to manage expectations at home. Johnson needs to show his Euroskeptic party he is winning concessions from Brussels; von der Leyen needs to show that her team is driving a hard bargain on behalf of member states. But a deal will depend on political will — and whether the two sides can strike a bargain on fish. Johnson said that unless the EU softens what he called its "not reasonable" stance, there won't be an accord. Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, made it clear on Friday that if the U.K. wants greater control over its waters, it will have to accept limits on access to the EU single market. In other words, if the British impose stingy fishing quotas on the EU, the EU could retaliate in other, unrelated areas.  French fishing boats, Dec. 1, 2020. Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg Johnson's threat may be real. But it is just possible he might be able to accept a long transition period before any new quotas take effect, thus putting off for years the tough decisions about who gets to catch what. If, at a later date, he decided to cut the EU's share of the catch, the bloc's response could only be proportionate, and not fatal to the entire deal. Would that be such a concern given fishing's tiny contribution to the economy? If a deal does materialize on Sunday night, the race to ratify it will begin. In London, Parliament will be recalled from its Christmas break, while the European Parliament is expected to hold an extraordinary sitting on Dec. 28. But if a deal comes later than Sunday, it could get complicated: the EU could implement the deal provisionally or — as Barnier has suggested — Britain could face a short spell without a trade deal in place while the bloc formally ratified it. Businesses have less than two weeks to prepare for the new border checks and paperwork that will come into force from Dec. 31. Firms are lobbying hard for a grace period. It is no surprise that ports have been jammed with trucks as firms try to stockpile goods in advance. Faced with the prospect of chaos, truckers have been warning they will turn away deliveries to the U.K. in January because it's too expensive for them to keep drivers stuck in line for days. Today's miles-long tailback on the M20, the main motorway to Dover and the Channel tunnel, is a sign of things to come — whatever happens in the negotiating room. — Edward Evans Brexit in BriefBeyond BrexitWatch Bloomberg Quicktake, our new streaming news service with a global view and an informed take.  Click here for the latest maps and data on the spread of coronavirus. Sign up here for our coronavirus newsletter, and subscribe to our podcast. Want to keep up with Brexit?You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday. Share the Brexit Bulletin: Colleagues, friends and family can sign up here. For full EU coverage, try the Brussels Edition. Like getting the Brexit Bulletin? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters. | 
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