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What great Covid vaccine news does and doesn’t mean

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Today's Agenda

Light at End of Covid Tunnel Not Train, Apparently

Since April 2020, or 100 years ago, we've been comparing the experience of this pandemic to being an impatient kid on a long car ride. Today we learned we may be just a few more SpongeBob episodes from home. A Covid-19 vaccine candidate by Pfizer and BioNTech prevented the disease in 90% of candidates, according to early trial data. This is some of the best pandemic news we've gotten yet, writes the normally-pretty-conservative-about-these-things Max Nisen.

Unfortunately, it will still take more testing and months before this vaccine and others will be available to vast numbers of people. We may need to use a vaccine lottery in the first stages of delivery, write Scott Duke Kominers and Alex Tabarrok. In the meantime, we'll still need to wear masks and practice distancing, especially with the latest wave being the most virulent yet. Justin Fox suggests, based on the usual patterns these things take, the latest wave will have already peaked by the time President-elect Joe Biden takes office and vaccines start being distributed. On the bright side, that means it may just be a matter of months before normalcy is in view. 

Traders, naturally, have already jumped to that future, pushing stocks to new highs. Brian Chappatta writes markets are pricing in a return to normalcy. But Mohamed El-Erian suggests this is premature. Especially considering the current Covid wave, we'll still need economic stimulus, vaccine or no, to get the economy back to full health and avoid permanent damage.

Trump Wants His Stapler Back

In the indispensable 1999 movie "Office Space," a mumbling drudge named Milton is fired but not informed of his dismissal or forced to leave the office, which he eventually (spoiler alert) burns to the ground. We never figured such a thing could happen with a president of the United States, but the current office holder is testing that premise.

Not only has Donald Trump not conceded his loss in the 2020 presidential election to Biden, he's still making false accusations that the race was stolen from him. This threatens Biden's ability to have a smooth transition, which he'll need to get off to a strong start, as Mohamed El-Erian notes. And denying Biden a normal transition does no favors for Trump's popularity, writes Jonathan Bernstein. His unfounded fraud claims also put Republicans in a terrible spot, forcing them to join him in trashing the office and their own reputations.  

Even when he eventually leaves the job, Trump will still have a large following to agitate, Tim O'Brien writes, making trouble for Biden and democracy. The raw divisiveness of Trump's whole presidency has already made it much harder for this election's losers to reconcile with those of 2016. Andreas Kluth warns Poland is an example of how quickly demagoguery can permanently scar national unity. Autocrats around the world are pointing to America's creaky voting apparatus and Trump's rabble-rousing to argue this country is not so special, notes Clara Ferreira Marques. The electoral system desperately needs reforms to give all sides more confidence in it, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. But at least we still have a democracy. Even if the president is trying to pull a Milton on it.

Further Shaky-Democracy Reading: America needs e-voting, and making it safe is a perfectly solvable engineering problem. — Leonid Bershidsky 

Previewing Biden Policy, Foreign and Domestic 

Under the circumstances, it may feel premature to start thinking about a Biden presidency. But the former vice president is wasting no time, today meeting with a new Covid-19 task force. And given his long track record in Washington and the White House, Bloomberg Opinion writers already have a pretty good sense of how his presidency will look. 

Foreign Policy:

James Stavridis notes Biden's team will be one of the most experienced in history, and its first acts will be starting to mend the many alliances Trump smashed.

Still, Europe can't expect Biden to reverse time and make Europe the center of America's foreign policy again, writes Max Hastings. The continent will have to keep learning to fend for itself.

Eli Lake points out Biden will revisit the Iran nuclear agreement, but he probably won't simply reinstate the one President Barack Obama signed.

David Fickling suggests Biden won't exactly embrace China in the circle of trust, but he will end Trump's trade wars. 

The world's other populists will suddenly lack an important buddy in the White House. For example, Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro may have to become a better global citizen soon, writes Mac Margolis

Domestic Policy:

Wall Street seems to think having Biden in the White House and Republicans in charge of the Senate will make for ideal economic conditions, but John Authers is doubtful. The challenges of the moment call for big spending, and divided government won't do it.

Noah Smith suggests one idea that could draw Republican support: subsidizing small-business startups

But Biden must also keep in mind the young people who helped get him into office, writes Frank Wilkinson. Though he won't usher in a socialist utopia, he can still advance some of their causes even without help from Congress. 

Telltale Charts

OPEC+ is set to decide whether to pump more oil, just as new pandemic lockdowns are hurting demand and previously shuttered production comes back on line, writes Julian Lee. TLDR: Oil prices are going to keep falling.  

It would be very easy for Brazil to get to net zero emissions if it wanted to, writes David Fickling. This would be a big help in fighting climate change.

Further Reading

Hydrogen may never be much use for fueling cars, but it could be a good reserve power source when sun and wind aren't available. — Andreas Kluth 

Apple suppliers keep violating its labor standards. Maybe Apple is part of the problem. — Tim Culpan 

Standard Chartered's plan to let bankers work from satellite offices near home seems unnecessarily complicated. — Marcus Ashworth and Elisa Martinuzzi  

Thinking of joining a startup? Don't expect to get rich. — Erin Lowry 

ICYMI

Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Trump campaign adviser David Bossie have Covid-19.

VF is buying streetwear label Supreme for $2.1 billion.

Kickers

Scientists find an amphibian fossil with an early projectile tongue. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

Scientists find two new species of freakishly adorable Australian mammals

McDonald's will start selling plant-based burgers.

There's an English word that hasn't changed sound or meaning in 8,000 years.

Note: Please send plant burgers and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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