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Presidential polling fooled us twice. Can’t get fooled again

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Today's Agenda

What We've Learned From the Election That Won't Die

Perhaps the wisest election analysis yesterday came from Slate's Megan Wiegand, who suggested we all just go to bed instead of watching returns. Following this advice would have netted you a good night's sleep without hurting your understanding of the race in the slightest.

Because when dawn broke today, the outcome was still very much up in the air, although it's been trending in favor of former Vice President Joe Biden. This was not the kind of nail-biter most Democrats expected, leading Cathy O'Neil to offer another piece of solid advice: Stop caring about the polls. Just stop it! Votes are still being counted, of course, and this year's polling error may shrink. But it seems clear that, for the second presidential election in a row, pollsters botched it. We must shake our addiction to watching these numbers, Cathy writes, because they give us a false sense of control. It's not healthy for democracy, not to mention our Election Day stress disorder.

Even less healthy for democracy is the president of the United States, who has spent the day tweeting dangerous nonsense as vote-counting puts him in an ever-deeper electoral hole. He may yet climb out. President Donald Trump did handpick half the current Supreme Court majority, and he has vowed it will swing the election his way. But he has made this claim so ham-fistedly, Noah Feldman writes, that he may already have dimmed his hopes of swaying the court's relative moderates by backing them into an embarrassing corner. 

And by repeatedly casting doubt on the perfectly legitimate voting process, Jonathan Bernstein writes, Trump once again makes it clear just how unsuited he is for the job.

Of course, some 67 million Trump voters apparently don't see it that way. Biden and his more than 70 million voters will have to process being part of a country that is still far more divided than the polls suggested 24 hours ago, writes Bloomberg's editorial board.   

If Biden wins the presidency, he'll also likely have a Republican Senate opposing him. Ramesh Ponnuru suggests there may be topics on which Biden and Mitch McConnell can strike deals. But nothing about such a presidency will please progressives. 

And that's in the best-case scenario for divided government. There's also a strong possibility McConnell will do everything in his power to wreck a Biden presidency from the start, Frank Wilkinson writes, even if it hurts the economy. And the nation's already fraying fabric will weaken further still.

The Establishment Always Wins

Twenty-four hours ago, financial markets were priced for a blue-wave election that would give Democrats the green light to shower money all over the economy. Those hopes are gone, writes John Authers. And yet stocks are still rallying hard. Divided government keeps corporate tax cuts in place and makes the Fed work even harder. Either way, the stock market wins. 

The bond market is a slightly different story. Prices are rising there, too, sending yields lower, partly on expectations of less fiscal stimulus but also to hedge against a protracted fight over the election, writes Brian Chappatta. In other words, after all this nonsense, stocks are rising and interest rates are falling, which is pretty much what they were doing anyway.

Telltale Charts

One of the election's weirder outcomes was California voters approving Proposition 22, which lets Uber and other gig employers keep calling workers contractors, meaning they don't have to treat them as well. Noah Smith suggests keeping these companies happily in business could in turn help keep high-income workers happily living in big cities at risk of being hollowed out by the pandemic.

Further Reading 

Boeing may not make much money selling its yacht, but there's no reason it should have a yacht at this point. — Brooke Sutherland 

Ant can rescue its IPO by changing its business model, ramping up its fealty to Beijing and sidelining Jack Ma. — Tim Culpan 

Ferraris may be less polluting than other cars because they get driven less. That doesn't mean the company can ignore the electric-car movement. — Chris Bryant 

ICYMI

Judge "shocked" by the Postal Service's failure to round up mail-in ballots.

Saudi Arabia loosened curbs on foreign workers.

Canada is making it easier for foreigners to become citizens.

Kickers

The mysterious radio signal is coming from inside the galaxy. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Giant swimming prehistoric paper clip lived 200 years.

Lost chameleons reappear in a hotel garden after 100 years.

Why are printers still so bad?

Note: Please send paper clips and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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