Brussels Edition: The economy, stupid

Follow Us Get the newsletter Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. The EU will get a much needed update on the economic outlook today when the Commission presents its latest forecasts. The numbers come shortly after wide swaths of the bloc imposed strict new curbs — like Italy's latest clampdown that hits industrial and financial hubs — to slow a spike in coronavirus infections, quickly rendering previous forecasts out of date. While the economy had bounced back strongly from the first round of restrictions, it could now be headed for another contraction in the final months of the year. That would serve as a remainder to negotiators in Brussels why it would be wise to quickly agree on the outstanding details of their recovery fund. The projections could also strengthen the European Central Bank's resolve to prepare new stimulus, which is already in the works. — Alexander Weber  and John Ainger What's Happening U.S. Election | You can be forgiven for having one eye on the U.S. election. While the outcome isn't final and legal challenges await, Joe Biden won Michigan and Wisconsin, putting him on the cusp of taking the White House from President Donald Trump. Follow the latest here. Brexit Grind | Trade talks between Britain and the EU are still making progress at a snail's pace, with the bloc's chief negotiator Michel Barnier telling ambassadors of the remaining 27 member states that solutions on access to British fishing waters and a level playing field for business continue to be elusive. Time is quickly running out. Final Hurdles | EU lawmakers and governments resume talks today on the rule-of-law mechanism, a key outstanding issue in negotiations over the bloc's 1.8 trillion-euro budget and recovery fund. A breakthrough would be welcome given the rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, and officials say the two sides are close to an accord. Still, disagreements over the contentious issue of top-ups to the budget persist. Lockdown 2.0 | From German beer taverns to al fresco dining in Italy and even yodeling classes in Switzerland, the latest lockdown measures are hitting the things Europeans love most. They're also bringing the specter possibility of a double-dip recession. Read more on the measures being taken here and the latest on the virus's spread here. Taking the Mink | In a fresh blow to vaccine efforts, Denmark has found a new strain of Covid-19 after an outbreak in the country's mink population led to a mutation of the virus. All animals will now be culled — roughly 16 million are raised each year. In Case You Missed It Paris Exit | It marks one year since Trump moved to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, and now the country is officially out. Should Biden triumph, rejoining the pact would take only 30 days once he gives notice to the UN. So mark your diaries for Feb. 19, assuming he wins of course. Hungarian Exception | Hungary reported both record coronavirus cases and deaths — the third highest per capita in the EU — yet Prime Minister Viktor Orban's new measures are falling short of those  laid out elsewhere in the bloc. To compound matters, two cabinet members have now also tested positive. Green Island | The Greek island of Astypalea is set to embark on a green mobility project, with a little help from German carmaking giant Volkswagen. Car- and ride-sharing offerings will help reduce traffic, and vehicles on the island will switch to electric powertrains that will recharge mostly with locally-produced renewable energy.  Hydrogen Boost | Investors backed by the EU launched a program that will harness private investment including from Bill Gates's Breakthrough Energy Ventures fund to jump-start the region's green hydrogen industry. Here's how the gas became the hottest thing in green energy. Chart of the Day Car sales fell in Europe's four largest auto markets last month, signaling the relapse of a demand slump as another wave of the coronavirus cases hit the region. German new-car registrations dropped 3.6% in October, while sales plunged by more than a fifth in Spain, slumped 10% in France and slipped 0.2% in Italy. The figures suggest the industry will be unable to maintain the surprise growth seen in September. Today's Agenda All times CET. 11 a.m. Eurostat to release retail trade reading for September 11 a.m. Commission releases its quarterly economic forecast, and Paolo Gentiloni, the commissioner for the economy, holds a press conference 1 p.m. Governor of Austria's central bank Robert Holzmann speaks at Bruegel event  Like the Brussels Edition? Don't keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here. For even more: Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters. 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