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Good morning. Focus turns to Europe's rescue package, global virus cases top 60 million and the U.S. is closed for Thanksgiving. Here's what's moving markets.

Rescue Packages

The holdouts on the European Union's $2 trillion spending package, Poland and Hungary, will meet on Thursday with other members watching on and hoping for a compromise over their opposition to the funding being tied to upholding the rule of law. Italy, meanwhile, called on the European Central Bank to consider wiping out or holding government debt it buys forever to help nations recover. The impact of the pandemic was laid bare by the U.K., which is facing its worst economic slump in 300 years. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak sought to balance more support for the jobs market with controversial spending cuts in his review in order to put the country on a stronger footing as, in the background, Brexit negotiations reach a decisive stage and relations with China deteriorate.

60 million

Global Covid-19 cases topped the 60 million-mark, with the toll in the U.S. continuing to worsen. Tens of millions are set to travel to visit family for Thanksgiving despite surging infection rates in parts of the country. New York state registered the most virus cases since April, rates are accelerating in the South West and Rocky Mountain West and California shattered its daily record. Canada is also dealing with a second wave that's hitting the country's oil heartland. Elsewhere, Germany has extended its virus curbs as it struggles to regain control of the spread and the U.S. is considering lifting entry restrictions on Europeans.

Data Deluge

U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving, providing a moment to step back and parse the slew of economic data that came before the holiday and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, where policymakers discussed updating their bond-buying guidance "fairly soon." The data deluge showed lingering signs of strain and strength in the U.S. economy as it attempts to navigate through the effects of the pandemic. Peter Navarro, a senior White House economic adviser, said U.S. families are facing a financial "chasm" as virus aid expires and called on lawmakers to reach a deal on a new package. 

OPEC Headache

The next OPEC+ meeting will take place next week and the jump in crude prices is providing more fuel for those countries that favor ratcheting up production and creating a headache for those with the opposite view. A weaker dollar and a surprise decline in U.S. crude inventories sent oil prices to an 8-month high on Wednesday too. Iraq has also criticized the cartel, saying economic and political considerations of members should be taken into account rather than OPEC taking a one-size-fits-all approach. All of which should add to the anticipation before the meeting, which starts on Monday.

Coming Up…

European futures are trending marginally higher and the day is likely to slow down with the U.S. closed for Thanksgiving. President-elect Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump delivered starkly different messages for the day, with Biden focusing on the need to stem the virus spread and Trump pardoning a long-time ally and calling for the election results to be overturned. Consumer confidence figures for Germany and France top the economic data agenda, while the earnings calendar is led by distiller Remy Cointreau and U.K. insurer Aviva.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

The bond market might not be pointing to a resurgent global economy next year, but the commodity market certainly is. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index -- which covers 23 major raw materials including gold, copper, natural gas, crude oil and agricultural goods -- is up 5% this month and zeroing in on a six-year high. The gauge's strength is relatively broad based and the underlying drivers seem to come not just from supply pressure -- perhaps most evident in copper and agricultural commodities -- but also from the demand side. Chinese and Indian refiners have issued a flurry of buy tenders seeking crude for loading in January, highlighting strong oil demand coming from parts of Asia. And a report from Commerzbank this week pointed to an impressive recovery in world trade, with China again the main driving force. Of course the batch of disappointing U.S. economic data overnight may dampen the ardor of the most enthusiastic commodity bulls over the short-term -- but that may be no bad thing. A steady grind higher in commodity prices through the end of the year would lend better support to other risk assets than a rapid surge to multi-year highs that risks an equally speedy reversal.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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