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Trump’s health is another mystery we didn’t need

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Today's Agenda

Trump and Covid

The coronavirus pandemic turned investors into amateur epidemiologists almost overnight, and now President Donald Trump's illness with the disease has them moonlighting in Kremlinology as well.  

Is the president dangerously sick, as his apparently unprecedented treatment with an experimental cocktail of drugs suggests, or is he ready to return to the White House, feeling better than he has in 20 years? The stock market, for some reason, allegedly keeps rising and falling as the answer to that question shifts with every rumor and risky limo ride. As Mohamed El-Erian writes, the outlook for the economy and markets was uncertain enough before the president of the United States fell ill. Some traders had apparently convinced themselves herd immunity had prematurely arrived in the U.S., suggests John Authers. Seeing the disease roll unchecked through the White House, from the president to his body man and all staffers in between, casts doubt on such notions. 

There would be much more certainty, for better or worse, if officials were being transparent about the president's health. But not even Trump's doctors have been honest about his progress, notes Jonathan Bernstein, not to mention the (now also infected) White House press staff. This approach may have been designed to keep the president and markets happy, but it has deprived Trump of the sort of national upwelling of sympathy enjoyed by his U.K. counterpart, Boris Johnson. 

Such good feelings may have temporarily boosted Johnson's standing, but Trump's situation is very different, writes Therese Raphael. Johnson was far more popular than Trump when he fell ill and has mostly taken the virus far more seriously. Voters blame Trump for his own illness and that of many Americans. Markets may have rallied today partly on hopes Trump will get well soon. But they're also starting to price in the likelihood he'll be replaced soon, too.

Cities and Cinemas Suffering

Meanwhile, the pandemic is surging again around the country, threatening more death, misery and economic destruction. Even in places where it is relatively quiet, well-off professionals are still mostly working from home, writes Justin Fox, crushing the economies of the cities that need their commuting, shopping and dining dollars. 

People still aren't jamming into movie theaters, either, leading to delays of the blockbuster fare that keeps them in business. Today the opening of "Dune" got pushed back nearly an entire year. Last week the latest Bond flick, "No Time to Die," also got moved to 2021, which was the last straw for the U.K.'s Cineworld Group, operator of Regal theaters, notes Alex Webb. It's closing hundreds of locations and possibly ending tens of thousands of jobs. There may be hope for our cities and movie theaters, but life will need to soon get back to a normal that includes people returning to them.

Further Pandemic Reading: Who should get a vaccine first? The answer depends partly on how effective it is. — Mark Buchanan 

Bonus Economic Reading: All recoveries start out K-shaped, with lower-income workers catching up last. This one should be no different. — Michael R. Strain 

There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere

There's a cliche that says it's always darkest before the dawn, which is absolutely not true in a scientific sense but could still hold some metaphorical water. It is entirely possible, Tyler Cowen writes, that all of the fear, anger and general discontent so many of us feel these days is simply a sign of vast changes afoot in technology and culture, much of which could actually be good. Yes, there's a pandemic, recession and climate catastrophe happening, but humanity is also making huge leaps in health care, clean energy and other technologies that could help solve those problems. 

Telltale Charts

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton Petco Lamborghini Aflac SE (note to self: double-check those names) might just be ditching Tiffany to get a better prize in Cartier, writes Andrea Felsted

Further Reading

Republicans don't really want the Supreme Court to end abortion rights, or they would have done it by now. — Frank Wilkinson 

Bank regulators are right to worry about how banks account for real-estate risks these days. — Elisa Martinuzzi 

After the George Floyd protests, immigrant businesses in Minneapolis are suffering from a lack of local leadership. — Adam Minter 

Around Gettysburg, race is still an open wound in America. — Frank Barry

I plan to die with nothing, having spent my money on experiences, charities and my kids while I'm still alive. — Farnoosh Torabi 

ICYMI

The CDC says coronavirus can spread indoors beyond 6 feet.

Exxon plans a huge surge in carbon emissions.

Americans are driving less.

Kickers

The U.K.'s poor Excel skills hid a surge in Covid-19 cases.

How to build a lay-down desk.

The economics of vending machines.

The remaining eight MLB playoff teams, ranked. 

Note: Please send lay-down desks and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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