| Hi, this is Alyza on Bloomberg's cybersecurity team. Tech companies have been uncovering clues that the same Russian hackers and trolls who meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election have plans to attack the upcoming one. Earlier this month, Facebook Inc. said it removed a small network of accounts with links to Russia's Internet Research Agency, a troll farm that stoked divisions and sowed chaos using social media in the last presidential contest. The accounts were attempting to gain traction on the American left. Twitter Inc. also said it removed accounts tied to the Russian state, with both companies acting on a tip from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Then, last week, Microsoft Corp. reported that hackers associated with Russia's military intelligence unit—the same group called out by the U.S. for attacks on the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016—have targeted approximately 200 organizations related to the election, including campaigns, consultants, parties and advocacy groups. Many experts see the newly disclosed cyberattacks as evidence of Russia probing for material to use in a timed "hack and leak" operation similar to the one used against Democrats in 2016. There are also signs that disinformation campaigns could proliferate. Already, in Ukraine, pro-Russian hackers tried to alter the country's election commission website to falsely report a far-right victory in 2014. That type of campaign could be particularly dangerous in the aftermath of a contentious election amid a pandemic, when mail-in ballots could take days or weeks to count. On their own these developments aren't surprising. After all, the playbook appears to be much the same as it was four years ago. What will matter is the American response. In many ways, the U.S. has improved its election defenses since 2016. The Department of Homeland Security has worked with state and local officials on the integrity of voting infrastructure. The FBI has created a task force to fight foreign influence. And U.S. Cyber Command targeted Russian operatives to warn them against meddling in the 2018 midterms. Meanwhile, social media companies have become more adept at cracking down on state influence operations. But conversations with multiple national security experts reveal that there's profound unease in the profession that these precautions won't be enough. One frequent concern from security experts is that the flow of information appears to be broken. In late August, U.S. intelligence chief John Ratcliffe stirred outrage when he said he would no longer give Congress in-person briefings on election threats. And earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security sparked concern by withholding an intelligence bulletin about Russia's efforts to spread disinformation regarding Democratic nominee Joe Biden's mental acuity, saying the document wasn't ready for circulation. Even more worrying, experts say, is that the White House has not been firm or clear in warning the Kremlin not to interfere come November. And officials have said that President Donald Trump and some of his top appointees are downplaying the threat posed by Russia, while inflating the danger from China. What all that means, said the Center for Strategic International Studies' Jim Lewis, is "we've clearly failed to persuade the Russians that interfering in the election is a bad idea."—Alyza Sebenius | 
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