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Brussels Edition: Bracing for failure

Brussels Edition
Bloomberg

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

With just weeks left to hash out a deal, the next round of trade talks between Britain and the EU kicks off in London and it seems Boris Johnson is already preparing fall-back options in case of failure. As the U.K. Prime Minister readies to tell the bloc he's willing to walk away rather than compromise on what he sees as Brexit's core principles, his government is set to publish new legislation this week designed to dilute the legal force of the divorce deal on issues including state aid and customs in Northern Ireland. The move could further undermine prickly negotiations on a trade deal, with neither side showing any sign of moving from their entrenched positions. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney called Johnson's latest maneuver "a very unwise way to proceed."

Viktoria Dendrinou

What's Happening

Euro Question | ECB policy makers discussing monetary policy this week will do so in the shadow of their U.S. counterparts. Officials are being forced to confront not only the euro's strengthening to a two-year high, but also whether a driving force behind that move — a shift in strategy by the Federal Reserve — is one they need to follow.

Winter Ills | The world economy's rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading, setting up an uncertain finish to the year. The northern winter may trigger another wave of the disease as the wait for a vaccine continues and government support for furloughed workers and bank moratoriums on loan repayments are set to expire. Here's all that could go wrong.

Green Vote | The European Climate Law, the legal foundation of the Green Deal, is up for key votes in the EU Parliament. Lawmakers in the industry committee will cast their ballot today, while the environment committee is set to vote Thursday on amendments calling for stricter climate policies than those proposed by the EU Commission in March.

Flight Turbulence | British pilots already fearing for their jobs as the coronavirus crisis hammers air travel face a new risk. There's no agreement in place that would allow aviators holding U.K. licenses to serve the bloc on anything other than British planes.

Virus Update | The surge in new coronavirus cases in France is far outstripping increases in other European countries and is coming just as millions of children return to school. Germany's infection rate increased to the key threshold of one for the first time in six days. Here's the latest.

In Case You Missed It

Italian Rebound | Italy's economy will recover more quickly than expected in the third quarter, with growth topping the government's latest forecast of 9.5%, according to Finance Minister Roberto Gualtieri. An updated finance plan in coming weeks will set a "significant" long-term target for reducing debt.

Rhine Re-Engineering | After low waters forced shipping on stretches of the River Rhine to all but cease two years ago, Germany is pushing to secure commerce on this critical artery. The multi-pronged effort involves an elaborate model of the trickiest stretch, re-engineering boats and even mulling once-taboo new locks.

Irish Pick | Ireland nominated an EU parliament member and a former senior official at the European Investment Bank to replace Phil Hogan, who quit as trade commissioner after breaking coronavirus guidelines. A likely reshuffle of the top EU team means Ireland may well lose the influential role as the bloc grapples with its post-Brexit ties.

Pipeline Politics | The furor over the poisoning of a top Russian dissident has put Angela Merkel's controversial backing for a Baltic Sea pipeline in the spotlight, triggering calls for her to wield her biggest stick: withdraw support for the project.

Tempting Turkey | The EU will offer Turkey incentives to strike a deal with Greece and Cyprus over maritime claims, while also preparing sanctions against Ankara if mediation efforts fail. The roots of the Mediterranean tensions run much deeper than a spat over hydrocarbons, Marc Champion reports.

Chart of the Day

Donald Trump plans to nominate a top aide to lead the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, seeking to make him the first American secretary general of the global policy and advisory group. Sweden, meanwhile, is nominating former European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom for the job, which has never been held by a woman. Though the organization has its headquarters in Paris, there hasn't been a European at its helm in more than two decades.

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 2:45 p.m. EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager gives a speech at competition regulators' conference, holds panel discussion with Germany's Economy Minister Peter Altmaier
  • European Parliament's industry committee holds a vote on the European Climate Law
  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hosts talks between Serbia and Kosovo
  • Julian Assange's extradition trial resumes in London

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