| What's happening? Boris Johnson has picked a fight that goes way beyond Brexit. The U.K. prime minister's threat to rip up part of an international treaty he signed only last year doesn't just make a chaotic split between the U.K. and the European Union at the end of the year increasingly likely. It has the potential to poison relations with the bloc for a generation. During crisis meetings on Thursday, European officials demanded Johnson scrap his plan to re-write the Brexit divorce accord — but his government refused. The EU is threatening legal action unless he backs down within three weeks. The move could sink negotiations between the two sides to sign a trade deal before the end of the Brexit transition period on Dec. 31. "Significant differences" remain, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said in a statement yesterday. "The U.K. has not engaged in a reciprocal way on fundamental EU principles and interests." The concept of reneging on a treaty commitment has shocked both the EU and members of Johnson's own Conservative party — even longstanding Brexiters like former leader Michael Howard. The German ambassador to the U.K. had a particularly withering response.  Conventional wisdom holds that this week's threats are a bluff to get a better trade agreement. After the inevitable row, so the theory goes, a deal will be done. But many of the safeguards that stopped a runaway no-deal Brexit in 2019 have since been taken away. So, what would happen if Johnson does follow through on his threat and walks away without a trade deal? Most analysts expect a series of significant hits to the U.K. and its economy, from border chaos and additional business costs to market volatility. Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform sees 10 potential consequences if the U.K. pushes ahead with its current plan. Thanks to Johnson's latest intervention, the longer-term effects will be even more significant. Trust between the U.K. and its biggest and nearest trading partner will have been dented at the very start of their new relationship. It will take time to rebuild. Britain may struggle to get a trade deal with the U.S. Scotland, already chomping at the bit for independence, may finally break away. Johnson brought these issues to the political forefront, whether by accident or design. They will now reverberate long after Brexit is settled. — Edward Evans Beyond Brexit  Click here for the latest maps and data on the spread of coronavirus. Sign up here for our coronavirus newsletter, and subscribe to our podcast. Want to keep up with Brexit? You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday. Share the Brexit Bulletin: Colleagues, friends and family can sign up here. For full EU coverage, try the Brussels Edition. For even more: Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access for our unmatched global news coverage. | 
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