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A loyal aide

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

Yoshihide Suga is patient. The longest-serving chief cabinet secretary in Japanese history, he's been a loyal aide in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, managing his public messaging and smoothing over internal quarrels.

Eight years on, he's widely expected to take over from Abe, who is stepping down for health reasons, with the ruling party picking a new leader on Monday.

Abe's time in office provided a period of stability after years of leadership turnover, including his own previous, and brief, premiership in 2006-2007.

The son of farmers, Suga worked his way up through the party machinery, honing his negotiating tactics. He's played an instrumental role in "Abenomics," the premier's marquee economic policy.

As such, Suga is unlikely to substantially change direction. He's being touted as a continuity candidate who will hew to Abe's policies.

On some issues he may push less hard. Abe comes from a family of politicians, including his paternal grandfather and father. His maternal grandfather was prime minister. His hopes of rewriting Japan's pacifist constitution were deeply personal. For Suga less so.

But he would still have to manage relationships with the U.S., China, Russia and South Korea. On foreign policy he's largely untested. There are tensions with Beijing and Seoul, especially over Japan's wartime past. Suga would need to engage with whoever wins the U.S. election, including on trade.

And it's unclear if, at 71, he's seen as a bridging premier, or someone with longevity. With the economy struggling under the pandemic, and structural problems with an aging society and dwindling labor force, Japan can ill-afford a return to leadership uncertainty.

Rosalind Mathieson

Abe gestures at Suga during a news conference in Tokyo on May 4. 

Photographer: Eugene Hoshiko/AP

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Global Headlines

China pitch, 2.0 | President Donald Trump is reviving his 2016 campaign playbook on attacking China, but running as the incumbent means defending a record of limited success in rewriting the economic relationship with Beijing. As Jenny Leonard reports, much of what the Trump team has laid out sounds like campaign promises made four years ago.

Campaign 2020

There are 53 days until the election. Here's the latest on the race for control of the White House and Congress.

Trump and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, will signal today that their paths to the White House run through Pennsylvania, as both commemorate the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks near the town of Shanksville, where one of the hijacked planes crashed in 2001.

Other developments:

Sign up to receive daily election updates as a direct mobile notification on Twitter. Simply click on this link and like the tweet.

Talks fray | The British government rebuffed a European Union request to scrap a plan to re-write their divorce accord after the bloc gave a three-week ultimatum to do so and threatened legal action. The dispute risks jeopardizing efforts to secure a trade deal by Dec. 31 — if there's no agreement by then it will trigger tariffs and snarl commerce with extra paperwork at the border.

  • The U.K. secured a free-trade agreement with Japan, its first major post-Brexit accord.
  • Britain recorded strong economic growth in July as virus restrictions eased but has clawed back little more than half of output lost during the lockdown.

High stakes | India and China pledged to de-escalate tensions along their disputed Himalayan border after their foreign ministers met yesterday for the first time since May, when the stand-off began. The nations have been increasing troop strength along the 3,488-kilometer Line of Actual Control for months and this week the first shots were fired since 1975 — an indication multiple rounds of talks have done little to lower the temperature.

Election strategy | With opposition leader Alexey Navalny hit by a near-fatal poisoning, President Vladimir Putin faces a key test of support in Russian regional elections starting today. The three-day ballot, a prelude to 2021 parliamentary elections, is also a showcase for a "smart voting" campaign promoted by Navalny before he fell ill. It encourages voters in individual areas to back the politician most likely to defeat the ruling United Russia party's candidate.

Corruption probe | Lawmakers in Peru will vote today on whether to start impeachment proceedings against President Martin Vizcarra after the release of tapes of him discussing a minor graft case. Prosecutors are investigating allegations that a singer used contacts in the presidential palace to obtain contracts worth about $50,000, despite lacking experience.

What to Watch

  • Secretary of State Michael Pompeo is heading to the Qatari capital, Doha, for the start of peace talks between Afghan government officials and Taliban leaders tomorrow.
  • Less than a week after Serbia agreed to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem by July as part of a deal with Kosovo brokered by Trump, the Balkan nation's president has cast doubts on the plan.

  • French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting his government today to plan how to curb a surge in coronavirus infections — almost 10,000 new cases yesterday — without harming a fragile economic rebound.

  • EU finance ministers will discuss the bloc's landmark recovery fund and how to pay off joint debt today during their first meeting in person in seven months.

Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which Disney live-action remake is under pressure for filming in a sensitive region? Send your answer to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... The newest Covid-19 vaccine candidate to start human testing is the first where volunteers won't get a painful injection. Instead, they'll receive a spray through the nose. The Chinese-made vaccine joins about 35 other candidates currently in human testing, as the global race to be first with an effective weapon against the deadly pathogen intensifies. Some scientists hope a vaccine that gets sprayed through the nose may have a better chance of stopping the spread of the virus through respiratory tracts.

A woman receives an H1N1 flu nasal spray vaccination in December 2009 in San Francisco. 

Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images North America

 

 

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