| HBO Max is already a success, according to Jason Kilar, the Chief Executive Officer of AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia. There are many reasons to doubt this. HBO Max still isn't on Amazon Fire or Roku devices, the two most popular streaming platforms in the U.S.. HBO Max doesn't have a breakout show — by Kilar's own admission. And it's especially hard to believe when Kilar just fired two of the executives in charge of HBO Max. But Kilar swears that had nothing to do with performance, and everything to do with positioning a TV company for the streaming era. Kilar knows a thing or two about internet businesses. He worked at Amazon for almost a decade, was the founding CEO of Hulu, and then tried and failed to take on YouTube. (His startup Vessel was a proto-Quibi.) Kilar spoke with me Saturday about the future of the movie business, his fight with Amazon and competing with Netflix. While I encourage you to read the whole conversation, I thought I'd focus on his view of streaming TV's future here. You can decide for yourself on HBO Max. All TV is moving to the Internet, including sports Kilar: Over the next couple of decades, the dominant means of content distribution, including sports, will be internet protocol. You will see a transition from satellite and cable to IP in terms of delivery. Are you selling individual games? Are people paying for Turner and ESPN+ services? Or are they paying for a bundle? There will be a bundle. If you could go back in history and start things fresh, you'd give customers a choice of a la carte and bundle. The bundle offers more value, but having a la carte option is also lovely. We don't get the luxury to go back in time. You will see a continuation of the bundle that has most of the major sports. Only five or six streaming services will matter Take a look at the past 40 to 50 years in media, and I'll focus on the US. There's been an explosion of content offerings from 3 and 4 channels to 800 in terms of pay-TV, and yet what you see is there are 4 really big ones -- maybe 5 or 6 – that account for a lot of the value. I think you'll see the same thing happen here. There will be more than 800 streaming services. There will be thousands. But there will be 5 or 6, maybe a little less or more, that will account for the majority of mind share. HBO Max will be one of them People forget, but it took Netflix four years to get to its first 1 million subscribers. It took Hulu about a year. HBO Max got there in a matter of weeks. Because it has better shows than any of its competitors When I first joined the company, I did this introduction video from my garage to say hello. I got announced on April 1, and didn't start until May 4. I did my best to allow people to see a face with the name. I did a two minute video to introduce myself and explain why I made the decision to join the company. The first thing I said was 'quality bar.' We all have quality bars. When I think about Casey Bloys, Toby Emmerich and Peter Roth, the thing that's consistent among their teams and their people is where they place the quality bar, which I'd argue is just a cut above. Even if it doesn't have a breakout hit Keep in mind, the pandemic has impacted all of us. When you look at what we launched with — "Love Life," within a week or two, we renewed for season two. It's something I've been personally happy with. In terms of a breakthrough hit that dominates the pop-culture landscape, it's fair to say we don't have that yet. I absolutely believe it's coming. Amazon and Roku will cave As we head into the fourth quarter, when gift giving happens, it becomes a more material situation for a seller of hardware. There are alternatives in the Google Chromecast and Apple TV. New movies will be released at home -- but theaters won't disappear. There's a rush to mutually exclusive outcomes -- there will either be a vibrant and huge theatrical business or no theatrical business. I don't see that. You'll see changes in theatrical, specifically different windows. Historically you could see windows of 130 days and longer; that was just the way the world was for decades. I don't think that will be the way of the future. A few years from now, will you still release movies that stay in theaters for a few months? Will "Wonder Woman 3" be exclusively in theaters for 130 days? We'll see a shorter window for all movies -- not just romantic comedies, but even for the biggest, most ambitious films. A programming note: I am going to be off the next couple weeks. (Or try to.) Try not to make any news -- Lucas Shaw The best of Screentime (and others things)  BIG JET TV on YouTube Source: YouTube | 
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