| In October of last year, I wrote a preview of four new streaming services from some of the world's largest companies, the onset of the so-called streaming wars. That term has proven to be something of a misnomer since the biggest dispute is between streaming services and distributors like Roku and Amazon, not between individual services. But now that all four services are out (five if you include Quibi), I thought it might be good to provide an early report card. The short version: While Disney has excelled, every other new service has glaring flaws. Disney+ What's gone right: Walt Disney Co. executed a marketing plan that ensured everyone in the U.S. knew about the arrival of its new streaming service, culminating in the biggest streaming launch on record. Buoyed by the only smash hit on any of these services ("The Mandalorian"), Disney added more than 50 million subscribers in just five months. And while Disney+ hasn't had a new hit series since "The Mandalorian," it hasn't suffered mass defections either. Customers are more loyal to Disney+ than any streaming service other than Netflix (and Hulu), per Antenna. This chart shows the percentage of new customers who were still subscribing after six months.  What's gone wrong: Not enough programming. Almost all the other Disney+ originals are just ads for Disney, and the coronavirus has paused production of Marvel series. Disney hasn't figured out what shows can lure more adults without being too mature for kids. Verdict: Disney is now Netflix's biggest competitor if you include Hulu, which it also owns. Apple TV+ What's gone right: A buzzy show out of the gate in "The Morning Show," endless cash reserves and a willingness to buy movies that studios can't release in theaters. What's gone wrong: The service hasn't been able to sustain its early momentum, and is still looking for an actual programming strategy or target audience. Verdict: When's the last time someone asked you about a show on Apple TV+? The service is something of an afterthought -- not as big a misfire as the Arcade gaming service or Apple News +, but not a clear hit like Apple Music. In the end, that may not matter all that much. Apple Inc.'s push into services looks good in an earnings release, where the company has reported booming revenue and proven to Wall Street that its growth isn't done. HBO Max What's gone right: HBO continues to deliver some of the best programs on TV ("Insecure," "I May Destroy You") while HBO Max has one of the best libraries of any service. HBO Max also had early success with original kids' programming. What's gone wrong: HBO subscribers don't understand what the new service is, how much it costs or how to get it. New customers can't access HBO Max on the two most popular online TV distributors (Roku and Amazon). And the original series for adults are lackluster. Verdict: As with Apple TV+, the success of HBO Max is a small concern in the larger framework of AT&T Inc. But unlike with Apple, AT&T needs HBO Max to succeed to justify spending $85 billion on Time Warner. So far, the results are underwhelming. Peacock What's gone right: It's free! People also like its live channels devoted to specific topics. What's gone wrong: Peacock lost the Olympics as a big marketing platform, and has yet to release any originals that generated much attention. Verdict: Incomplete. Comcast was very much relying on the Olympics as a marketing vehicle for this service, and just changed the leadership for NBCUniversal at the start of the year. Quibi Whats gone right: Quibi has gotten oodles of free press. Whats gone wrong: It's for all the wrong reasons. Verdict: Read this again. A few other things to keep in mind: - Remember when all these services were supposed to hurt Netflix Inc.? The streaming service has added nearly 26 million customers since the start of the year, and is going to have its best year yet in terms of overall additions.
- You don't need a new hit every day. Disney has held up just fine by having one show people really love (and a catalog parents need). HBO Max and Quibi flooded the market with new shows, and nary a one is a true smash. Copying Netflix is not a tried and true strategy. Creating a differentiated product is.
- It's too early to call any of them an outright failure. Every service is one hit away from luring customers. Hulu was limping along for a few years there until it struck gold with "The Handmaid's Tale." Now its slate of originals is one of the deepest in the business.
See you again in a few months. – Lucas Shaw The best of Screentime  | 
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