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Rolling the dice

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

Reshuffling a government is risky. It can either provide fresh momentum or add to the sense of deck chairs being pushed around on the Titanic.

French President Emmanuel Macron certainly needs a reset. He's coming off the back of a disastrous showing in local elections. His foreign policy is under question after failed efforts to play a key mediating role in places like Libya and Iran.

Earlier today he removed his prime minister, Edouard Philippe. He's likely to name a replacement within hours. In a big cabinet reshuffle, it's often the case that an entire government steps down and some people are then reappointed. But Philippe looks to be on the outs with his boss.

As premier he's focused on domestic affairs, liaising with unions through the long-running Yellow Vest protests against Macron's economic policies, including pension reforms. He has tended to operate in the shadow of his president, careful not to be seen as directing policy.

But his popularity has risen during the coronavirus crisis, and he's been talked about as a possible presidential contender in 2022.

As the worst of the pandemic slows in France, the risk is that economic grievances will return to the fore. In a speech last month, Macron promised to boost growth and reduce inequality. He's been talking more about the need for a greener economy.

All of that's hard to deliver in the best of times. The pandemic will make it even harder, even with a different team.

And the clock is ticking.

Rosalind Mathieson

Macron, right, speaks with Philippe yesterday at the Elysee Palace.

Photographer: Ian Langsdon/EPA POOL

Click here for Bloomberg's most compelling political images from the past week and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

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Global Headlines

July 4 fireworks | U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Mount Rushmore today for an early Independence Day celebration with thousands of guests who won't be required to wear masks or socially distance, as he continues an aggressive public schedule despite a spike in coronavirus cases. The event is expected to draw protests from environmentalists who say planned fireworks risk forest fires and from Native American groups who say the 79-year-old South Dakota monument is on land illegally seized from the Sioux.

Bloody summer | India has been warning of a two-front war on its contested borders for years. Now, as tensions flare with China high in the Himalayas and suspected Pakistan-backed militants 410 miles away in Kashmir, India's army chief has urged the government to ensure his troops aren't forced to fight both adversaries at once, Sudhi Ranjan Sen reports.

Security vehicles patrol near the site of a gun battle between suspected militants and government security forces in India-controlled Kashmir on June 18.

Photographer: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP

Revolution illegal | A 24-year-old man will face a Hong Kong court today after police arrested him for inciting secession and committing terrorist acts in the first charges under the new national security law. It comes as authorities criminalized a slogan chanted by hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters over months of rallies — the latest sign they plan to use the law to crack down on free speech.

Fading hope | The surprise resignation of Ukraine's central bank chief will reveal how committed President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is to the pledges of reform that got him elected. Many had already lost hope before Governor Yakiv Smoliy quit Wednesday, complaining of "systematic" political pressure. That has spooked investors and cemented disillusionment among those who backed the former TV comic to draw a line under Ukraine's murky post-Soviet politics.

Bolsonaro's pivot | President Jair Bolsonaro is changing tack after pushing his administration to the brink of an institutional crisis with Brazil's congress and top court — the media are dubbing his new style one of "peace and love." As the pandemic tears through the country and the economy nosedives, legal problems involving Bolsonaro's inner circle have forced him to rethink his strategy to shield the government from simultaneous crises. But as Samy Adghirni, Simone Iglesias and Murilo Fagundes explain, it may not last long.

What to Watch

  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made his first public appearance in about a month to criticize some top cadres over their management of the coronavirus.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson today will tell Britons to act responsibly as the U.K.'s pubs prepare to re-open and will warn he'll close parts of the economy again if the pandemic runs out of control.

  • Voters in the Dominican Republic go to the polls Sunday and could put an end to two decades in power by the ruling party.
  • Croatia, one of Europe's top tourist destinations, also holds elections on Sunday. Clouded by Covid-19, the vote may result in a hung parliament.

Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which country's long-serving leader is facing opposition via social media posts of an almost century-old portrait, the owner of which is running for president from prison? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... A Turkish court starts hearing a case today against 20 Saudi citizens in absentia on charges related to the killing and alleged dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul. While a Saudi tribunal sentenced five people to death for the crime, it said it didn't have enough evidence to incriminate two top officials close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler. Turkey charged those aides of inciting premeditated murder. Khashoggi's body was never found.

Demonstrators hold photographs of Khashoggi outside the White House on Oct. 19, 2018. 

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

 

 

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