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Populist stronghold

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

Europe may have just lost one of its last best chances to bring the continent's nationalist forces to heel.

Polish President Andrzej Duda's narrow victory in yesterday's election is poised to cement the transformation of the European Union's largest eastern member under the Law & Justice Party.

Echoing messages from leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Hungary's Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump, Duda's campaign bashed immigrants and gays, denounced Germany and — with the help of state-run television — warned his rival would kowtow to "Jewish interests."

The country of 38 million was hailed for embracing western ideals after the collapse of communism. But since taking power in 2015, Law & Justice has pursued a nationalist ideology.

That includes attacks on independent judges and the media, frustrating the EU. Now Law & Justice has three years until the next general election, setting up more clashes on everything from carbon emissions to EU aid, of which Poland is the biggest net recipient.

Poland's opposition, citing irregularities, said it may contest the ballot in court, and challenger Rafal Trzaskowski has yet to concede. But the judiciary has been reluctant to step in when the number of votes in dispute wouldn't change the outcome, which now appears to be the case.

Trump, who welcomed Duda to the White House in June, will continue to have an ally in antagonizing Angela Merkel, as with his decision to relocate some U.S. troops stationed in Germany.

One aspect of the election was clear: Voters are energized, with turnout of almost 70% a record in Poland's post-communist history. That could reverberate in upcoming votes in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Michael Winfrey

 

Duda at a campaign rally last week.

Photographer: Agata Grzybowska/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Class action | U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos downplayed the health risk of reopening schools in the fall, a priority of Trump's, a day after the president — who has resisted face coverings — wore a mask while visiting a Washington hospital for injured veterans. DeVos repeated a threat to cut funding to schools that don't fully resume in-person learning. Her comments came as Florida reported 15,300 new virus cases, the biggest one-day rise since the pandemic began in the U.S.

  • In a sign of tension within the Trump administration over its Covid-19 response, one of the president's task force members said infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci doesn't necessarily "have the whole national interest in mind."

High turnout | More than half a million Hong Kong residents — over 13% of registered voters — defied government warnings and a fresh virus outbreak to vote in an unofficial primary to narrow down opposition candidates competing in Sept. 6 Legislative Council elections. Those selected must still overcome calls for disqualification by pro-Beijing politicians after the recent imposition of a national security law on the city.

  • Beijing said it will sanction Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in response to the U.S. penalizing Chinese officials for a crackdown on Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang.

Mosque move | EU foreign ministers are meeting today to discuss tensions with Turkey over energy drilling off Cyprus and its actions in Libya and Syria. The session follows a court ruling Friday that paved the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to convert the Hagia Sophia back to a mosque, a move critics say is a further sign a less secular and tolerant Turkish state has emerged on his watch.

Hagia Sophia is a former Orthodox patriarchal basilica, later a mosque, in Istanbul. It was opened as a museum in February 1935.

Photographer: Ayhan Altun/Moment RF

Decision time | Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces pressure to ban telecommunications companies from installing new equipment made by China's Huawei in Britain's 5G networks from as soon as the end of 2021. The National Security Council meets tomorrow to decide on Huawei's future in the U.K. following U.S. sanctions against the company — and sources say a review found Huawei will now have to use untrusted microchips, making 5G security risks impossible to control.

Wake-up call | Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the government would better address concerns about loss of income and jobs after the ruling party's worst showing in an election since independence in 1965 (it still won 89% of seats). The city-state's economy has been badly hit by the pandemic. The result shows Singapore is ready for an inclusive government with different views, opposition Workers' Party Chairman Sylvia Lim said.

What to Watch This Week

  • The Trump administration plans to make an announcement this week regarding escalating tensions in the South China Sea, where Washington and Beijing are vying for military supremacy.

  • Former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is the underdog in tomorrow's primary runoff as he tries to reclaim an Alabama Senate seat for Republicans in a race that amounts to a grudge match with Trump.

  • Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti plan to meet Thursday in Brussels for talks hosted by the EU as the bloc tries to revive efforts to find a settlement to their dispute.

  • Senators Mitt Romney and Pat Toomey are the first major Republican elected officials to criticize Trump's decision to commute the prison sentence of longtime adviser Roger Stone.

  • EU leaders gather from Friday for two days of talks on plans for a massive stimulus package.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to Bill Peterson, who was first to name Ivory Coast as the country whose prime minister died last week.

And finally … South African President Cyril Ramaphosa reinstated a ban on alcohol sales and condemned people for "recklessness" over measures to curb the pandemic. Many South Africans are refusing to wear face masks in crowded places, are attending large public gatherings and having "drinking sprees," Ramaphosa said in a televised address yesterday. South Africa is also reimposing a curfew. The booze ban aims to ease pressure on overstretched hospitals by reducing trauma cases. Liquor industry representatives have warned of a "disastrous" economic impact.

A cashier in front of a closed liquor store in Johannesburg in May.

Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

 

 

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