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Brussels Edition: Tested by Turkey

Brussels Edition
Bloomberg

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Tensions with Turkey will dominate today's first in-person meeting of EU foreign ministers since the coronavirus-induced lockdown. Strains within the EU itself are possible as it gropes for a strategy to address Turkish challenges ranging from energy drilling off Cyprus to involvement in the Syrian and Libyan civil wars. The latest irritant is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's plan to reconvert the Hagia Sophia in Istanbul to a mosque. EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell sent conciliatory signals last week after a visit to Turkey, telling the European Parliament ''what we're trying to do is avoid any kind of confrontation.'' The question these days is not only whether Ankara agrees, but also whether EU national capitals do too.

John Ainger and  Jonathan Stearns

What's Happening

Polish Nail-Biter | Poland's highly-charged presidential election is too close to call, with President Andrzej Duda and his challenger both declaring victory after an exit poll showed the incumbent winning by a thin margin. Duda's lead — 51% over 49% for Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski — doesn't take into account nearly half a million votes by Poles living abroad that may favor Trzaskowski. Official results may be published later today.

A Bigger Bill | When it comes to freeing up record amounts of money to
overcome the pandemic, the big hitters in the EU need to make more concessions than they had bargained for to get everyone over the line. It's going to be an intense week of negotiations.

No Control | When the European Central Bank meets this week to review its radical suite of measures to revive the economy, there's one tool it insists it will stay away from: yield-curve control. What is it, and why is there so much opposition to it?

Budget Boost | Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's plans to pass his first budget after more than two years in power have been bolstered after the Basque Nationalist Party, a key ally, won a landslide victory in a regional election. And Sanchez could do with a win, with the economy set to shrink by as much as 15% this year.

Burst Bubbles | Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was on top of the world last month as his jubilant allies popped champagne and danced to a brass band after a landslide election victory. Now he's finding that wielding absolute power during the coronavirus crisis is a double-edged sword. Here's our story on why.

Kosovo Talks | And that's all happening against the backdrop of Serbia's peace talks with Kosovo, with the leaders of the two nations set to meet in person this week in Brussels. This is why the long running dispute is a problem for the EU.

In Case You Missed It

Consumer Survey | A new YouGov survey across 26 countries shows consumers everywhere are concerned about their jobs and household budgets. They're also cautious about spending or investing the money they do have, suggesting that signs of a rebound will take time to get people back into shops, airports or restaurants.

Brexit Prep | With less than six months until the U.K.'s transitional membership of the EU single market ends, ministers have announced plans to spend 705 million pounds on new border infrastructure. It follows a leaked letter last week from Trade Secretary Liz Truss that expressed concern over potential smuggling.

Tightening Up | After a spike in coronavirus cases, Hungary will conduct health checks at the border and require 14-day quarantines for those arriving from higher-risk countries. Foreigners from the highest-risk nations will be barred entry, cabinet minister Gergely Gulyas said.

Creative Destruction | The U.S. is usually better than Europe at reshaping its economy after recessions, partly because it's easier for American entrepreneurs to streamline their business by firing workers, or even start a new one by going bankrupt. In the coronavirus crisis, that advantage isn't immediately apparent.

Chart of the Day

Spaniards face the greatest risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 in the workplace, according to figures published in the latest OECD Employment Outlook. Almost 56% of Spanish workers are at risk of being infected with the virus, compared with the OECD average of 48.1%. Spain also has the second-lowest percentage of jobs that can be done from home, while Luxembourg has the least workers at risk and the highest percentage of jobs that can be done from home.

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 9:30 a.m. EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss Turkey
  • 10:30 a.m. EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders speaks about the GDPR to the European Parliament's LIBE committee
  • After 12 p.m. Press conference by Commissioner Ylva Johansson following the High Anti-Smuggling Conference with partnership countries
  • 4:30 p.m. European Council President Charles Michel, receives the Prime Minister of Montenegro, Dusko Markovic
  • Ministerial videoconference of Ministers of the Interior of EU Member States and Partner Countries on countering migrants' smuggling
  • Dutch prime minister meets Portugal's Antonio Costa
  • Germany's Merkel and Italy's Conte meet outside Berlin

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