Header Ads

The inevitable superpower?

Turning Points
Bloomberg

We've reached a turning point, Michael R. Bloomberg wrote in the first edition of Bloomberg Green this week, as governments around the world debate how to spend trillions of dollars to restore the global economy.
 
On the environment, he notes, the choice is clear: either invest heavily in clean infrastructure to create jobs and improve public health, or keep protecting polluting industries. The Trump administration has chosen the latter, bailing out oil and gas companies.
 
Similar stark choices face policymakers in other corners of the economy. In finance, an unprecedented deluge of corporate credit to make up for revenue shortfalls could be used to "ensure a stronger foundation for high and durable growth that benefits more than the well-off," economist Mohamed A. El-Erian argued in the Financial Times. The other choice would be to allow companies to use the money to pad executive pay while indulging in more financial engineering.
 
One path leads to prosperity for all—a New Deal for the "essential workers:" gig employees and internal migrants who've taken the brunt of the Covid-19 onslaught. The other path leads to crippling debt and bankruptcies.

This week in the New Economy

Mohamed Aly El-Erian

Photographer: Giulio Napolitano/Bloomberg

Which way will countries go on trade? Faced with supply chain disruptions, many are invoking national security to erect protectionist barriers and argue for greater self-reliance. They're doing so even though such an inward turn increases the odds of a global depression, and has devastating implications for developing economies, reversing years of gains against poverty.

Global public health is also at a crossroads, amid ominous signs that rich countries are getting ready to hog novel coronavirus vaccines, if they ever emerge, at the expense of poor nations.

That choice is not only morally reprehensible, but it makes little practical sense, given that the safety of any single country depends on immunization everywhere.

Yet "medical nationalism," rather than humane internationalism, has been a feature of this pandemic. The impulse of governments around the world has been to block exports of protective gear and stockpile supplies, leading to a mad scramble for life-saving equipment in a global black market overrun by fakes and fraudsters.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is leading the world off a precipice by defunding the World Health Organization in the middle of a pandemic.

Times Square on June 9.

Photographer: Nina Westervelt/Bloomberg

For the world's great cities, the incubators of this pandemic—and the nodes of transmission—a moment of reckoning is at hand. Their future depends on a correct diagnosis of the Covid-19 condition. Contrary to popular opinion, New York City's fundamental problem isn't density, (overcrowded Hong Kong has recorded just four virus deaths). New York, like many other cities, is suffering from a different kind of malady: Inequality.

In the Big Apple, as in so many other cities, Covid-19 preys on the poor. Dilapidated housing and pollution breed asthma. Low incomes lead to poor diets, obesity and pulmonary disease—all comorbidities associated with Covid-19 fatalities.

The Bloomberg New Economy is focusing this year on these five areas— climate, finance, trade, public health and cities. A big focus will be East-West collaboration in the search for solutions. Watch this space for more details.

Q&A: Is China's Rise Inevitable?

One of the best of a new crop of books on China is "Superpower Interrupted: The Chinese History of the World," by the veteran Asia correspondent Michael Schuman. To understand China's present, Schuman argues, you have to look at history through Chinese eyes. I asked him to elaborate for Turning Points.

Q: Why the title "Superpower Interrupted?"

A: The title is meant to convey the idea that China's recent period of weakness was merely an "interruption" of its traditional historical narrative, in which it has often been a major power. For much of history, China was a dominant political force in Asia, one of the world's most prosperous economies and a tremendously influential civilization. That was "interrupted" by its confrontation with the West in the 19th century, but today, China is once again striving to restore its usual superpower status.

Q: How does China's history shape its present-day attitude to the world?
 
A: Going back more than two millennia, the Chinese possessed a sense of exceptionalism, based primarily on their perception that their civilization was superior to others. In other words, China's "rightful" place was on top of the world. Ever since the Western powers toppled China from that pedestal in the mid-19th century, the belief that China deserves to be a great power has propelled its leaders to "make China great again." That quest continues ever more aggressively under President Xi Jinping.

Q: How does China's sense of exceptionalism play out in its current standoff with the U.S., which has a similar self-image?

A: The widening conflict between the U.S. and China has aspects of a "conflict of exceptionalisms." Americans perceive their nation as the "city upon a hill," a guiding light bringing liberty to the oppressed. The Chinese have traditionally seen their culture as so wondrous it could transform barbarism into civilization. Beijing is claiming that its (supposedly) more effective techniques at fighting Covid-19 prove the superiority of its governance system over the failing of American democracy.
 
Q: Is China's rise to superpower status historically inevitable?
 
A: What is truly remarkable about China is how often its political elite rebuilt the pillars of Chinese power over the past 2,000 years. That makes the rise of China to superpower stature part of a natural pattern of history. However, even if that is the case, there is no guarantee that rise will happen now, or under the current communist regime.

Bloomberg New Economy Conversations

Can the world's medical researchers, scientists and public policy advocates work in tandem to outwit the coronavirus and other health challenges that now threaten our health and safety? Join Bloomberg New Economy Conversations: Public Health on Life Support on Tuesday, June 16, at 10 a.m. EDT as we discuss strategies to overcome these crises. Register here. Also, you can follow Bloomberg New Economy on Twitter @neweconforum.
 

Last week's newsletter incorrectly spelled the name of Luis Alberto Moreno, the president of the Inter-American Development Bank.

__________________________________________________________

Like Turning Points?  Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

A Japanese edition of Five Things is coming soon. 世界のビジネスニュースが届くニュースレターへの登録はこちら。日本時間の朝に配信します Click here to sign up for our newsletter with world business news, delivered to your inbox every morning.

Download the Bloomberg app:  It's available for iOS and Android.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

No comments