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Five Things - Europe
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Good morning. Coronavirus cases are spreading at a record pace in the U.S., stock markets keep clawing out gains and U.K. companies are preparing for life with no European Union trade deal. Here's what's moving markets.

Virus Record

There's no sign of the coronavirus pandemic receding globally. A record 37,000 new cases were recorded in the U.S. on Thursday, topping the peak seen in April, after many Americans let down their guard on social distancing. Some U.S. governors are reversing plans to reopen their states, in a growing recognition that the contagion is increasingly dictating events in much of America. President Donald Trump isn't saying anything. The U.K. health secretary is warning he could close beaches to head off a potential new round of infections. The Asia-Pacific region's economic toll from Covid-19 will be near $3 trillion, S&P Global Ratings said.

Buoyant Stocks

So with the grim news out of the U.S., stocks are in freefall, right? Wrong. The U.S. market staged a late-day rally on Thursday, and that's given a boost to Asian equities and to index futures in Europe this morning. True, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index is headed for its second weekly loss in the past three, but at this point it's down only 1.6% on the week. Investors seem to be counting on policy makers to cushion any blow from the pandemic. The Fed "is going to support this market one way or the other," Sandy Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co., said on Bloomberg TV. 

Brexit Worries

Meanwhile, the effort by the U.K. and the European Union to reach a post-Brexit trade deal has been stumbling on. Talks are set to pick up steam, with extra negotiating sessions scheduled for July and August, but U.K. businesses are preparing for the worst: They're stockpiling goods in case the U.K. leaves the customs union on Jan. 1 without a deal. The two sides hope to have a deal hammered out by October, at the latest, because the bloc needs time to receive necessary approvals from member nations. The U.K. still hasn't set out how trucks moving between Britain and the European Union will be handled after Brexit -- a major gap in its planning that is causing concern among freight firms.

Wirecard Impact

The fallout from the collapse of Wirecard AG is spreading. Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. are considering revoking the German payments company's ability to process payments on their networks, which would cause further pain for the firm that's been battered by an accounting scandal. The affair has shaken Germany's political classes and prompted calls for an inquiry and possible leadership changes at financial regulator BaFin. Meanwhile, short sellers are feeling vindicated, and they've got a string of wins to look back on in Europe.

Coming Up…

Investors will get readings on French consumer confidence, Spanish retail sales and Italian consumer and manufacturing confidence as those economies rebound from lockdowns. In the U.S., reports are due on personal income and spending in May as well as a final reading from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment in June. The earnings calendar is light, with U.K. grocer Tesco Plc providing a quarterly update and Swedish fast-fashion chain Hennes & Mauritz  AB reporting quarterly earnings. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

U.S. stocks are rapidly losing this year's premium allure. Based on forward earnings estimates of equal-weight gauges of the S&P 500 and MSCI World Indexes, the valuation premium for an "average" U.S. share has come right back down to its pre-crisis range. The measure had pushed through the range in April to reach a peak in early June as U.S. shares drove the rebound in risk assets and investors clamored for American exposure. That trend has reversed this month as the coronavirus continues to spread across the world's largest economy -- U.S. shares have begun to underperform their international counterparts. And while paying up for U.S. exposure paid off in the recent rally -- the S&P 500 is up about 38% since its late-March lows -- not having American stocks wasn't exactly a performance killer. Cheaper benchmarks from Germany to South Korea to Brazil to South Africa have all bested that return over the same period.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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