| What's happening? This week, it all boiled over. Tensions between the U.K. and European Union have been simmering for some weeks, but they are now bursting into the open. This week's exchange of passive-aggressive letters between chief negotiators David Frost and Michel Barnier underlined just how little progress has been made on a future relationship for life after Dec. 31. It's also clear just how low relations are sinking. Ian Wishart has the full story here. The two sides are still far apart on the fundamental issue of the level playing field, rules designed to protect the EU economy from what it sees as unfair competition. Britain doesn't want to be bound by regulations that it sees as an infringement of its sovereignty—but Barnier made clear that the bloc will require them in any trade deal, even in a limited accord that would remove tariffs on only some goods. Then there's Ireland, once the most controversial part of Brexit. On Wednesday, the U.K. finally set out how it will implement the Northern Ireland Protocol. While conceding that some checks will be made on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, the U.K.'s minimalist interpretation of the rules is likely to fuel concern in Brussels that it is less than fully committed to what it signed up to.  David Frost (left) and Michel Barnier last met face-to-face in March, before the coronavirus lockdowns. Photographer: OLIVIER HOSLET/AFP All this means the chances of progress ahead of a key June summit look slim, something to which currency traders are starting to become increasingly alert. The EU gamble is that Johnson is blustering and will fold, or be made to play for more time. Downing Street hopes EU leaders will intervene and change Barnier's negotiating mandate. As things stand, both look unlikely. EU leaders have bigger things on their mind—the coronavirus and how to keep the bloc together—and changing Barnier's mandate would need unanimous agreement. Johnson has repeatedly ruled out extending the current transition period, and with his large majority Parliament can't force one on him this time. For Johnson, as I've said before, the virus may actually be an incentive for him to get Brexit done now: The economic costs would be dwarfed (or at least significantly blurred) by those of the pandemic. Barring dramatic political interventions, Britain is heading for the end of the transition period without a trade deal in place. The government set out the costs of that outcome when it published its tariffs plan this week, and businesses are far from ready. As my colleague Joe Mayes reports, many of the key people who need to be making the preparations are on furlough. When they get back to the office, they can expect a rude awakening. — Edward Evans Beyond Brexit Sign up here for our daily coronavirus newsletter, subscribe to our Covid-19 podcast, and read our free coverage.  Click here for the latest maps and data on the spread of coronavirus. Want to keep up with Brexit? You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday. It's live at midday on Bloomberg Radio and is available as a podcast too. Share the Brexit Bulletin: Colleagues, friends and family can sign up here. For full EU coverage, try the Brussels Edition. For even more: Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access for our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
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