Millions more jobless, Trump threatens to end China trade deal, and central bank decisions. UnemploymentEconomists expect the number of initial jobless claims last week to drop to a still-massive 3 million, with continuing claims nearing 20 million when the data is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Yesterday, the ADP Research Institute said that private payrolls slumped 20.2 million in April. All this points to record numbers in tomorrow's unemployment report, with projections showing a decline of 21 million in non-farm payrolls and the jobless rate surging to 16%. Trade un-dealTop Chinese and American trade negotiators will speak as soon as next week, slightly ahead of the agreed schedule, after President Donald Trump threatened to "terminate" the phase-one trade deal between the countries if Beijing failed to adhere to the terms. The halt to global trade due to the coronavirus outbreak means that Chinese purchases of U.S. goods have been far behind the agreed pace in the first four months of the year. Data released by China overnight showed an unexpected jump in exports in April, while imports dropped more than forecast. Bank movesThe Bank of England signaled it could expand stimulus as soon as next month, while holding its monetary policy stance unchanged in this morning's announcement. It sees lenders in the U.K. suffering loan losses of about 80 billion pounds ($99 billion) due to the pandemic with house prices falling 16%. Norway's central bank surprised the market with a rate cut to zero percent as the country faces the double blow of a shutdown and the collapse in oil prices. The European Central Bank is in front of the EU parliament today to launch its annual report for 2019, where Vice President Luis de Guindos said the bank is "more determined than ever" to support the region's economy. Markets riseStocks are mostly continuing their recent strong performance as investors concentrate on earnings data. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific slipped 0.4% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.3% lower after its first trading session of the week. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.8% higher at 5:50 a.m. with retailer stocks among the best performers as the region's economy starts to reopen. S&P 500 futures point to a positive start to the session, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.716% and oil rose. Coming up...Other than initial jobless claims it is a fairly quiet day on the economic data front. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker all speak later. Uber Technologies Inc., ViacomCBS Inc., Trip Advisor Inc. and Bombardier Inc. are among the many companies reporting results. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morningThere's three things on my mind this morning. 1. Cities and states around the U.S. are getting absolutely pounded by a collapse in tax revenue, and nobody is getting spared. What's clear -- and you can see it in things like this clip from Marco Rubio -- is that Republicans know that states and cities need aid, but it's really important for them that any aid is not perceived on Fox and talk radio as a bailout of things like Illinois pensions. So that's one challenge for getting there.
2. Meanwhile, the stock market is holding recent gains, in part premised on the idea that there will be another round of stimulus on the way. But D.C. is moving slow, and it may take a market swoon to concentrate the minds of politicians. So there's an unstable equilibrium at play. Investors are bullish on something that might take a downdraft to come about. There was a similar dynamic at play last year with the trade talks. 3. On an unrelated note, we're in a bull market for hot takes about what the "Future of Work" and the "Future of Cities" look like because of this crisis. On the conference call for the Vornado Realty Trust (a big office landlord), CEO Steve Roth said: "While we are now working from home, we do not believe working from home will become a trend that will impair office demand and property values. The socialization and collaboration of the traditional office is the winning ticket." You might say he's biased. But so is everyone. The difference is that his bias is blatant. Everyone else making bold projections is probably just as self-interested, but you have to tease that out some more.  Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
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