Good morning. The U.K.'s virus death toll overtook Italy's, the ECB responded to Tuesday's German court ruling and it's another big earnings day. Here's what's moving markets. U.K. Virus Deaths Top Italy The U.K.'s coronavirus death toll soared passed that of Italy, making it the worst hit country in Europe, as a top British official expressed regret over the lack of early testing. Meanwhile, France discovered an undiagnosed Covid-19 patient from last year, Goldman Sachs is cautioning against copying Sweden's light touch approach, and the low fatality rates of two tiny nations stand out. In the U.S., President Donald Trump said Americans should begin returning to their everyday lives even if it leads to more virus cases, while the White House is discussing disbanding its virus task force. ECB Defiant The European Central Bank responded to a German court ruling criticizing its long-standing bond-buying program by pledging to continue doing everything necessary to revive inflation. After an evening conference call to discuss the surprise decision by Germany's constitutional court, the Governing Council remarked that the top European court has previously said quantitative easing is legal. Still, if Germany's judges and institutions are allowed to quibble over the ECB's actions, will all euro area states be able to do the same? Asia Mixed as China Returns European equity futures are slipping after mixed trading in Asia as Chinese traders came back online after a five-day break. Along with re-openings and earnings, focus remains on the progress of coronavirus treatments, with U.S. firm Gilead Sciences Inc. working to ensure access to its drug in Asia, Europe and the developing world. Pfizer Inc., meanwhile, administered the first U.S. patients with its experimental vaccine. Elsewhere in markets, oil's rally ran out of steam after prices doubled over five days. Disney's Profit Hit Walt Disney Co. was the focus of after-hours U.S. earnings as the entertainment giant said the coronavirus crisis cost it as much as $1.4 billion in lost profit last quarter, due to shuttered theme parks and the loss of live sports on its ESPN cable network. There were brighter spots, though, as Beyond Meat Inc.'s sales held up as business shifted into retail and away from restaurants, while Tinder and Hinge dating app parent Match Group Inc. reported an increase in engagement during global lockdowns, though it expects revenue growth to slow next quarter. In this region, BMW AG joined carmaker rivals by issuing a coronavirus-linked profit warning. Coming Up… Today's top earnings come from television group ITV Plc, banks UniCredit S.p.A. and Credit Agricole S.A. and insulin giant Novo Nordisk A/S. In economic data, German factory orders, Eurozone retail sales, and Italian and Spanish services purchasing manager indexes are mostly expected to be very weak. U.S. ADP employment provides a precursor to Friday's jobs report and Brazil's central bank is forecast to cut rates. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning Germany's top judges may have opened up a fresh can of worms over the European Central Bank's quantitative easing program, but moves in the options market suggests traders are betting it will be kicked down the road, at least in the short-term. While the euro dipped and Italian bond yields ticked higher, implied volatilities three months out show traders aren't overly concerned about the court's deadline for the ECB to prove its asset-purchase program is in line with the law. Three-month implied volatility in the euro was little changed, as was its spread with the 4-month equivalent. That suggests markets see little in the way of `event risk' this summer -- and thus expect the ECB response to pass muster. And three-month euro risk reversals -- a measure of the appetite for bullish bets relative to bearish ones -- saw only a modest move in favor of the latter. So while FX traders are paying a little more to protect against a downward move in the euro, they are doing so at levels broadly in line with the average of the last five years. The German court ruling has raised question marks over just how far the ECB can push its monetary stimulus, but in currency markets at least it seems few are concerned about the answers just yet. Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Clos |
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