| Covid-19 has now infected 2 million people around the world. Economists are predicting the scale of China's likely slump in first quarter gross domestic product data. And watchers will be waiting for a key reading of the tech market when TSMC hosts its first earnings call since the pandemic. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. The number of coronavirus cases has hit a new grim milestone — 2 million. Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered people in New York to start wearing masks in public, and introduced an antibody test to identify medical personnel and other essential workers who have already had the coronavirus and therefore have some immunity. The European Commission has drawn up plans for a partial lifting of restrictions, but they warned that some will remain until a vaccine or cure is found, and Germany is set to extend curbs even after new cases fell for a sixth day. India, now possibly facing its first contraction in 40 years, will lift some curbs to allow makers of information technology hardware, farmers and industries in rural areas to resume operations after April 20 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi crafts a plan to exit the world's biggest lockdown and revive stalled economic activity. Still, India's next problem looks like it could be convincing frightened workers to return. Indonesia, on the other hand, will bring 34 million people under partial lockdown as authorities stepped up efforts ahead of the nation's biggest festive season next month. And a puzzling development, China's data on symptom-free cases is showing that most people who test positive for the virus never actually get sick. Here's how Bloomberg is mapping the spread. Asian stocks looked primed for losses after a weak session on Wall Street, as bleak retail, manufacturing and home building data added to concerns about a severe U.S. recession, with the Fed now saying the economy has contracted sharply. Treasuries surged and futures fell in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 lost more than 2% with all major sectors dropping. Financial shares slid as Goldman Sachs's investment portfolio took a hit from the coronavirus pandemic, while Bank of America and Citigroup followed rivals in setting aside billions for loan losses. Oil plunged to the lowest in two decades amid a record collapse in U.S. fuel demand. The dollar jumped, and elsewhere, oil tumbled anew amid a record collapse in fuel demand and the biggest ever weekly increase in domestic crude supplies. The scale of the recovery task facing China's policy makers will be laid bare Friday when first quarter gross domestic product data is expected to show a historic slump. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for a 6% contraction in the first three months of the year, when the coronavirus outbreak forced an unprecedented lockdown of factories, stores and schools across the country. Bloomberg Economics warns the dive may be as deep as 11%. At the same time, the government will also release data for retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial output for March, offering the most complete picture yet of the economic destruction since the virus outbreak. Unlike the rapid-fire policy response seen in the U.S. and Europe as the disease shuttered economies there, Chinese authorities have offered targeted support and modest monetary easing as they focused on containing the virus's spread. The first quarter data will provide policy makers a clearer picture of what'll be needed if they're to meet long-term economic growth goals. HSBC, along with a clutch of other banks, have a combined exposure of at least $3 billion to Singapore's beleaguered oil trader Hin Leong and talks are underway over shoring up its finances, according to people with knowledge of the matter. A group of about 10 lenders including HSBC, Singapore's three largest banks, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank held a virtual meeting with the oil trader and its advisers on Tuesday, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak publicly. Before crude's spectacular crash due to the coronavirus crisis, it would have been almost unfathomable that a company of Hin Leong's status could be in such a position, and now Singapore's closely-knit oil trading community is gripped by the predicament and the potentially far-reaching impact the difficulties could have on the market and trading partners. If you are wondering how the tech industry has been faring lately amid the crisis, look to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s earnings call. The firm, a supplier to tech behemoths like Apple and Huawei, is poised to give watchers a key reading of the market as it convenes its first earnings call since the virus pandemic was declared. The two main questions that analysts and investors want answered on Thursday are how orders from Apple are doing and how TSMC is navigating the risk that the U.S. will curb its sales to Huawei. While TSMC will provide first-quarter results including net income, it is the guidance for the current quarter and rest of the year that will get the most attention. Both Citigroup and Credit Suisse say they expect the company to at least temper the high expectations for sales it set in January, citing the impact of the virus. Citi said it may even "withdraw its guidance without giving a specific view" for the year. The chipmaker accounts for nearly a quarter of the Taiex gauge, which Wednesday entered a bull market by climbing 20% from its March low. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac's interested in this morning A key gauge of risk appetite in the currency market — the Australian dollar-Japanese yen cross — has pulled back from an important technical level, its 50-day moving average. The Aussie had rallied more than 10% against the yen since mid-March as unprecedented stimulus from the world's central banks and a slowdown for many countries in the rate of new coronavirus infections boosted risk assets. The pair has closely matched the rebound in U.S. equities since they fell to year-to-date lows last month.  Investors should keep a eye on whether the cross rises back through the resistance or continues to retreat. Not just because technical analysis is closely followed in the foreign-exchange world, but also because currencies are one of the last "independent" financial barometers in the market right now. The government bond and corporate credit markets have essentially been nationalized by central banks, while key stock indexes in the U.S. are disproportionately affected by megacap technology companies and — in some Asian countries —by purchases from policy makers. Of course FX has its own influences, but the market is likely large enough to overcome these limitations, making currency moves an even more important source of risk signals in these unprecedented times. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News. For the latest virus news, sign up for our daily podcast and newsletter. | 
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