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Next China: Us and them

Next China
Bloomberg

If China's relationship with the U.S. was unproductive before the coronavirus, it's become increasingly counterproductive since. And there are signs it could get worse.

President Donald Trump this week halted funding for the World Health Organization. That came after he'd complained on multiple occasions about the agency being "very, very China-centric." Beijing reacted by panning the move, saying it would undermine international cooperation.

This is the latest of several spats to embroil Washington and Beijing in recent months. Since signing their phase-one trade deal in January, they've jostled over the term "Chinese virus," conspiracy theories linking the U.S. military to the outbreak and expelled each other's journalists.

The stakes are high, especially for poorer countries that need assistance to fight the coronavirus. An internal U.S. State Department assessment found the halting of American funding for the WHO could cost thousands of lives if it results in vulnerable populations not getting the help they need.

A lot of people need help. More than 130,000 have died, two million have been infected and many more have lost their jobs. The International Monetary Fund said this week that the recession brought on by the coronavirus will be the worst since the Great Depression.

It augurs poorly for the future that the U.S. and China, even during a crisis of this magnitude, have struggled to set aside their differences. What's worse, tensions look set to rise, not fall.

Supply chains are one area where friction is already building. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested this week that Washington should pay the cost for U.S. companies to move their operations from China back to America.

That won't sit well with Beijing, where unemployment and the dim economic outlook are a top concern. The 6.8% contraction in China's first-quarter GDP reported Friday morning won't help.

Then there's the U.S. election. Fundraising material distributed this week suggests the Trump campaign plans to paint China the villain of the pandemic so as to shift blame away from the administration.

That's sure to rankle Beijing, which is just as keen as Trump to be seen as having been a force for good. And if domestic criticism of the Chinese government's initial handling of the virus continues to bubble, there will be less patience for strategic composure.  

The post-virus future could be a rocky one.

Buyer Beware

In their desperate rush to secure crucial medical supplies and equipment, governments around the world have become much more open to working with unfamiliar entities. That's raised questions about the legitimacy of some of the contracts they've signed. One example is in Mexico, where the government placed an urgent order for 2,500 ventilators with Levanting Global Servicios, which has said it's procuring the equipment from Beijing Aeonmed. When contacted, however, the Chinese manufacturer said it had no knowledge of the contract or of the firm acting as the middle man. Levanting has disputed that account, saying that it's already paid for the ventilators. Aeonmed, meanwhile, issued a public warning this week that its name was being used without its permission by third parties. And it's not just ventilators. Trying to secure much sought-after medical-grade face masks can be just as murky. Sourcing goods internationally has always had its pitfalls, something the coronavirus has not changed at all.

Employees assemble ventilators at an Aeonmed factory in Hebei province.

Photo: Beijing Aeonmed Co.

The Foreigners 

There's always been a vein of xenophobia in China just below the surface, as there is in many countries. And like elsewhere, it's been coming more into the open because of the coronavirus. The latest example has been in the southern city of Guangzhou, where citizens of African nations have reported being mistreated, evicted from hotels and forcefully tested for the virus. It led the chairman of the African Union to publicly express "extreme concern" and prompted Beijing to issue assurances that it doesn't tolerate such discrimination. This isn't unique to China of course. Reports of incidents against Asian Americans have increased notably in the U.S., enough so that President Trump tweeted that the community was not to blame for the outbreak. It's another unfortunate example of how this outbreak, at least so far, has amplified existing divisions.

Bigger and Better

Size matters. That was the message when China's securities regulator said late last year that it hoped to create "aircraft carrier size" investment banks to compete with the Wall Street giants setting up shop in the country as Beijing opens its markets more fully to foreign competition. The first of those warships looks like it could be a $67 billion firm created through a merger of Citic Securities and CSC Financial. While the two have begun doing due diligence and a feasibility study, there is no guarantee that a deal comes together. There is plenty of motivation though. With the who's who of global finance are all rushing to China, teaming up becomes a pretty compelling strategy for how to defend against the onslaught. 

What We're Reading

And finally, some other things that got our attention:

 

How is the U.S.-China relationship being altered by coronavirus? Join us on Tuesday, April 21 at 10 a.m. EDT for a live virtual conversation exploring how the pandemic is deepening this rivalry and reshaping the global economy.  Register here  to join Bloomberg New Economy Conversations: Risks of US-China 'Decoupling.'

 

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