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The sharing economy faces the abyss

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Bloomberg

Hey all, it's Eric. As awful as it is to say, a global pandemic that keeps billions of people inside their homes may not be as bad for technology companies as it is for many others. If you're making video conferencing software, or selling video game consoles, or running the cloud services that power them, that's a good business to be in right now. 

On the other hand, driving people around, or renting them a scooter or a place to stay on vacation, those aren't great businesses during a society-wide shutdown. The so-called sharing economy, which has produced some of the most highly-valued startups in history and developed into one of the most fascinating corners of tech over the last decade, is facing a real reckoning from Covid-19.

One problem for these companies is that it's not clear they're good businesses even in ideal conditions. Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc., the ride-hailing companies who have been two of the brightest stars in the sector, have never turned a profit and have done poorly on Wall Street since going public last year. Postmates Inc. and DoorDash Inc., which apply similar models to food delivery, are also burning cash and may inspire even more skepticism from investors. The labor model underpinning all these companies—using massive numbers of independent contractors instead of actually hiring anyone—has faced increasingly aggressive legal pressure.

And that was all before Covid-19. The pandemic has sent Uber and Lyft's stocks plummeting further. Lyft is worth only $9 billion today, less than it was as a private company at the end of 2017. Uber told investors this month that it expected to close out the year with between $4 billion and $6 billion in cash. That's a lot of money, but it's never a good sign when you have to assure investors you won't run completely dry.  

Both companies are likely to see significant disruptions in their operations for the foreseeable future. At least Uber has a food delivery business, which can partially offset a collapse in ride-hailing volume. Delivery companies like Instacart Inc., for instance, have been doing far more business than they were before the pandemic.

It's an oversimplification to say that a stressed-out population sheltering in place will be good for delivery businesses. Services like DoorDash and Grubhub Inc. are reducing fees they charge to restaurants, as they worry that supply will dry up as restaurants shut down or go out of business entirely.

Then there's Airbnb Inc., whose business is being hit hard by a collapse in recreational travel. The company is reevaluating its plan to go public this year, and may have to raise more money from private investors.

Many of the sharing economy companies do have an advantage over their competitors from the traditional industries they set out to disrupt. Their innovation was to offload costs and risks to the drivers, delivery people, and homeowners who serve as the supply side of their platforms. Drivers are now stuck with those Lexuses they bought to ferry around high-end Uber passengers. Airbnb hosts who bought properties to rent out on the platform still have mortgages and electricity bills to pay.

This has some companies scrambling to position themselves as advocates for their suppliers. This week I reported that Airbnb and Uber have been lobbying the government to extend unemployment benefits to independent contractors and sole proprietors. 

The sharing economy companies in the worst shape may be those who aren't so asset-light. Scooter companies Lime and Bird Rides Inc. have electronic two-wheelers that are sitting around, depreciating in value. Bloomberg recently reported that Lime, which is only operating in South Korea at the moment, is preparing to terminate workers. The Information reported it is also looking to raise a funding round 80% below its last private valuation.

I've obtained a document that a lobbying firm representing Lime and Bird had circulated a two-page presentation to members of Congress that called Covid-19 an "existential threat" to the scooter industry. The document asked Congress to delay scooter companies' payroll taxes and to issue them emergency relief loans and loan guarantees.

Scooters got left out of the Senate's bailout package, though the goal may be to get funding in a future transportation-related bill. After Bloomberg contacted Bird earlier this week about the lobbying effort, the company said it had changed its mind about pushing for aid.

Eventually scooter companies will have to find money and get back on the sidewalks or they'll be in trouble. As the memo puts it, "With drastically fewer people going into work, running errands, or attending social gatherings, micromobility trips are dramatically down, and the 3-year-old micromobility industry may not recover."—Eric Newcomer

If you read one thing

Facebook's board shifts to the right. Gone are the days of Erskine Bowles, a figure in the Clinton and Obama White Houses. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg named George W. Bush's former Treasury undersecretary Robert Kimmitt as the company's lead independent director. This comes after Zuckerberg also named his friend Drew Houston, Dropbox's CEO, to the board. Peter Thiel remains on Facebook's board.

And here's what you need to know in global technology news

Working from home is straining the internet. Nokia saw a 300% surge in remote conferencing. Google products suffered several partial outages as well. 

Coronavirus will hurt WeWork. As if WeWork's situation weren't tough enough, the company's business will likely be further devastated by the coronavirus.

Restrictions in China are easing, and Huawei Technologies Co. is ready to see whether Chinese customers are willing to spring for smartphones again. 

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