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Five Things
Bloomberg

The economy needs fast bureaucracy, U.S. virus cases surpass China, and markets slip. 

Bill speed

The House is set to pass the $2 trillion stimulus package today and send it to the White House for President Donald Trump's signature. The breakneck speed of the economic slowdown means that programs aimed at helping businesses and the newly unemployed need to get out the door in weeks, not months. The rules governing the largest portion of the aid, directed at corporations as well as state and local government, are still a work in progress. Doubts also remain over Trump's call to have the money targeted at individuals delivered within two weeks.

Rapidly rising

The number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. passed the record set by China, with the American tally topping 82,000. The growth in the infections in China has nearly ground to a halt, with most of the new cases from overseas travelers prompting the government there to halt almost all foreigner arrivals. The leaders of the two countries pledged to cooperate in the fight against the outbreak. Meanwhile in Europe, government leaders struggled to agree on a strategy on the way forward at a summit yesterday, with the issue of coronabonds remaining a key sticking point. 

Slowdown

The collapse in the price of crude is leading to rapid reduction in oil production at many American sites, with the industry braced for the biggest idling of wells in 35 years. In the world of physical delivery oil, a barrel is trading way below the benchmark spot prices, with substantial discounts offered for cargoes. There is no sign of relief in sight, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery trading at $22.50 this morning, while the meltdown in prices remains low on policy makers' list of priorities.  

Markets drop

The big question for investors at the moment is whether the rally in stocks this week will stick, or fail to gain further ground. Early signs are not great. While there was a rally in Asian stocks overnight, that has not carried through to Europe, where the Stoxx 600 Index was 2.2% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time as resources and bank stocks declined. S&P 500 futures pointed to a similar pullback at the open. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.765% and gold slipped. 

Coming up…

The Fed's success in meeting global dollar demand has seen the currency head for its biggest weekly loss since 2009. That doesn't mean they are set to ease off on measures immediately, with a further $1.5 trillion of term and overnight repo operations due today. Meanwhile personal income and spending numbers from February are unlikely to do much to excite under the current circumstances when they are published at 8:30 a.m. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is released at 10:00 a.m. The Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 p.m. is likely to get more scrutiny than usual as investors look out for the damage the oil sell-off is doing on the ground. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Luke's interested in this morning

Even foreigners -- well, at least Canadians -- learn what happened stateside during the Great Depression, from the duration and magnitude of the human suffering to the policy prescriptions to try to address it. So when financial markets start rattling off superlatives that end with "since 1933," it's time to think about what transpired back then and the results we'd like to avoid. Even when it's tied to good news. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest one-day gain since March 15, 1933. The latter was the first session markets reopened following an extended bank holiday instituted by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, because so many of them were failing in the midst of a bank run. In the interim, the Emergency Banking Act was passed. That created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, effectively guaranteeing Americans could trust the banks with their savings. Thursday marked the culmination of the biggest three-day rally in the S&P since the period ending April 20 1933 -- when FDR took the radical step of de-pegging the U.S. dollar from the gold standard. These were policy actions that succeeded in chopping off the left tail of systemic financial instability, much like the modern-day Fed's increasing suite of programs to address liquidity and credit risk. In the 1930s, these measures were accompanied by expansive fiscal policy, as is expected today. But think about the size and scope of FDR's New Deal. Even that was insufficient to bring an unemployment rate that averaged 25.2% in 1933 into signal digits before World War II was well underway. Our lesson from history is this: Policies sufficient to shore up the financial system and spark furious rallies in risk assets are not enough to completely ameliorate untenably negative outcomes in the real economy. No one wants to see another repeat of the record filings of initial jobless claims. But if there is, it's necessary for the policy response to prevent this pain from further metastasizing. The bond market doesn't think Congress's plans are big enough to move the dial for growth and inflation. In the meanwhile, governors are lamenting that the plans don't meet their financial needs while the list of austerity measures in the pipeline at the state and local levels is swelling. Interest rates are near historic lows. Yet the interest rate on the money America isn't spending -- either by the delay in getting a fiscal package out the door or its potential lack of scale -- is sky-high.

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