Header Ads

Next China: Green shoots

Next China
Bloomberg

Things are starting to look a little brighter for China, and not a day too soon.

The past two months have been dark ones. Thousands have died, many more were sickened and a gargantuan economy came close to being ground to a halt. But the stringent steps Beijing has taken to curtail the outbreak seem to be working.

For more than two weeks now, the number of new domestic cases reported daily have been in the single digits. And while concerns remain about a second wave of infections and whether asymptomatic cases are being properly reported, the mood on the ground has improved markedly.

Local officials across China have started easing limits on social gatherings and are even encouraging people to go out for a meal. Shopping malls have reopened, property transactions have picked up and factories are starting to hum again.

China is bouncing back symbolically as well. It was announced this week that the quarantine of Wuhan, the city where the virus first emerged, will end April 8. The lifting of that lockdown will be the clearest signal yet that Beijing believes the worst is over.

Unfortunately, green shoots and symbolism don't equal an economic recovery.

Urban unemployment shot up to 6.2% in February, the highest reading since this data was introduced in 2018. And with economists at Goldman Sachs, HSBC, UBS and other banks forecasting a contraction in first quarter GDP, finding jobs for those workers will be no small challenge.

There's also the rest of the world. With lockdowns now pummeling the economies in America and Europe, and warnings being sounded of a global recession, China is set to see a negative feedback loop where sluggish overseas demand dims recovery prospects.

Uncertainty still abounds, even if the outlook is a bit more optimistic.

De-escalation

The U.S.-China feud over who to blame for the coronavirus calmed this week almost as quickly as it erupted. The deescalation began with Beijing's envoy to the U.S. disavowing assertions by a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry that American soldiers had some role in starting the outbreak. It was a claim that notably irked President Donald Trump, who brought it up during a press conference last week when defending his use of the phrase "Chinese virus," wording Beijing has railed against. But within days of Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai describing theories of U.S. military involvement as "crazy," Trump had eased off as well, saying in a Fox News interview that he would no longer use the term "Chinese virus." And though tensions haven't dissipated entirely - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continues to call it the "Wuhan virus" – the readiness of both sides to step back is a good sign.

Photographer: The Washington Post

Ventilators Needed

China's ventilator factories have been running nonstop to fill an avalanche of orders from overseas. Demand for the machines, which are essential for treating severe cases of Covid-19, are at 10-fold what's available, according to China's top medical device maker. But that boom in orders also belies a threat. For the opponents of globalization, the coronavirus has been proof that countries shouldn't depend on suppliers beyond their borders. The imposition of export bans by some governments on medicines, masks and other essential supplies has hammered that point home even more forcefully. When this pandemic passes, China's ventilator factories may well find they have a lot more competition overseas.

Second Wave

Hong Kong reacted rapidly to the coronavirus. With memories of SARS still fresh for many, residents were quick to put on masks, schools were closed early on and much of the city was told to work from home. As a result, the city had a relatively low number of infections. Unfortunately, that might be changing. Hong Kong has had an influx of arrivals as the situation in Europe and the U.S. has intensified, fueling a second wave of infections. That's opened up new fissures in a city already roiled by social divisions and forced the government to take measures that will further hobble a reeling economy. But with that said, if Hong Kong has proven anything over the past year, it has been its resilience.

What We're Reading:

And finally, a few other things that got our attention:

 

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

 

No comments