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Follow Us Get the newsletter Congress looks to another stimulus package, economic forecasts worsen, and some relief for oil. Ready to do more The White House and congressional Democrats are preparing for another round of economic stimulus to get the U.S. through the virus shutdown. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said her party is collecting information on what might be needed in the next package, with the peak of the outbreak in the U.S. not expected for a few weeks yet. There is also support for further measures from Republicans, with Senator Ted Cruz yesterday saying he has no doubt that Congress will have to act if the crisis continues for "substantially longer." President Donald Trump said he considered a national stay-at-home order, but said it's "pretty unlikely" as some parts of the country are "not in trouble at all." Slowdown Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its forecast for second-quarter U.S. growth lower to an annualized minus 34%, with unemployment soaring to 15%. Still, economists at the bank see a mainly short-term hit, expecting a strong rebound in the third quarter. Hopes for the shutdown being relatively brief were bolstered by signs of stabilization in the number of new cases of the virus reported in the worst-hit areas of Europe, with the World Health Organization saying the outbreak in Italy and Spain may have peaked. While numbers from the U.S. are likely to continue to get worse, the rise in confirmed cases in New York is slowing.  Sponsored Content by Global X ETFs Video Game Industry Hits Reset in 2020 The way we think about at-home work and entertainment is evolving. Likewise, so are the companies and technologies powering our virtual lives. We recently explored how the video game industry is among those poised to emerge this year, with further cloud-based advances on the horizon.   Light at the end of the tunnel There was some relief for oil traders as crude prices recover from an 18-year low, helped by early signs pointing to the end of the economic contraction in China. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery climbed more than 5% this morning. The commodity, having its worst quarter ever, is starting to become a global political hot topic, with President Trump calling Russian leader Vladimir Putin yesterday to address market stability concerns. Despite some signs of support, oil remains under huge pressure with Goldman Sachs analysts projecting global consumption will drop by 26 million barrels this week.  Markets mixed Global equities are generally finishing a quarter for the history books on the front foot. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2%, while Japan's Topix index closed 2.3% lower after investors feared the government would be forced to implement stronger containment measures. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index, on track for its worst quarter ever, had gained 1.8% by 5:50 a.m Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures pointed to a gain at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.692% and gold was lower.  Coming up… There is some March data on the U.S. economy due this morning, with MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. and Consumer Confidence numbers at 10:00 a.m., both expected to show significant declines. The Federal Reserve's liquidity provision continues with two $500 billion overnight repo operations scheduled. Blackberry Ltd. and McCormick & Co. Ltd. report earnings.  What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. A coronavirus vaccine in 18 months? Experts urge reality check.  Visa says consumer spending has "sharply declined," even online. Nightmare haunting euro's founders may now be a reality, China is using more coal again. This time it may be a good thing. Germany pays workers to stay home to avoid mass layoffs. Belarus is taking a different approach to the outbreak.  Why is the universe made of the stuff it is, and not other stuff? And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning When a developed market economy such as the U.S. goes into a downturn, government policymakers are typically expected to increase spending to counteract the slump. On the other hand, when an emerging market economy gets into trouble, governments are typically expected to cut spending ("reforms"). Because emerging market government debt doesn't have the same haven properties as Treasuries (or Gilts, or Bunds or Australian government bonds etc), those governments don't have the same capacity for increased deficits and debt. They end up cutting spending when things are already painful. Keeping that in mind, yesterday on TV we spoke to Brian Nichols of Employ America (9:00 minute mark) who has been keeping tabs on the wave of state and local government spending cuts we've already seen across the U.S. just since the crisis has begun. The states, cities, and towns have little choice. Even though it's at the worst possible time economically, local public entities have limited capacity for debt issuance to counteract plunging revenue. One way to think about the U.S. economic structure is that while nationally, it is the ultimate developed market, it is comprised of thousands of mini emerging market governments, whose fiscal policies are inevitably pro-cyclical: their spending rises during the boom and contracts during the slump. These local public entities are fighting the front lines of this crisis, and as such will have to be the centerpiece of the fourth round of stimulus being discussed in D.C. 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