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The Weekly Fix: Bonds Hold All the Cards on Valentine's Day

Fixed Income
Bloomberg

Welcome to the Weekly Fix, the newsletter marveling at the bipartisan support for an independent Federal Reserve in a world where Congress doesn't agree on anything else. –Luke Kawa, Cross-Asset Reporter.

R-R-R-R-Ranges

Financial markets are adaptive, by nature, to differing states of nature. Even in an unstable environment – say, one characterized by an ongoing trade war or a virus whose effects on global growth are unknown – markets will usually find a way to go about day-to-day business in a way that doesn't include persistently elevated volatility.  

There are signs that bonds are settling into their own (unstable) equilibrium while the backdrop of the coronavirus still looms large.

In a week in which the U.S. Treasury issued a 30-year bond with the lowest coupon on record, yields on that benchmark have been trading in their smallest weekly range this year. Same story for the two-year, 10-year Treasury curve's weekly range.

Bad news on the spread of the coronavirus (albeit through revisions) sparked a not-too-massive flight to U.S. Treasuries, which was then nearly completely offset by a solid reading of U.S. consumer price inflation and the continued bid for equities. Ten-year Treasury yields were right around 1.6% at the end of Thursday, which is right around the middle of a roughly 20 basis point range defined by the gap lower from the close on Jan. 24 and how it finished the month.

"The lowest yielding long-bond auction in history, at 2.061%, came and went without consequence – a relevant development which double underlines the market's appreciation of the reality that low rates are going nowhere fast," writes Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. "Even with a solid CPI release to start the decade, the deep-seeded skepticism of upside inflationary risk caps how far yields and term premia can back up."

The long end is continuing to signal unease about the future in general, not the near-term outlook in particular. The spread between 10-year yields one year forward and the cash rate continues to stay well above where it was in August.

On the other side of the range, one potential curb on further bullishness for bonds is the the idea that central bankers in developed economies won't necessary be tripping over themselves to ease policy because of the coronavirus. After all, they have little – if any – conventional firepower available, and many of them already moved last year. Such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which this week projected no chance of a rate cut in 2020.

"What the RBNZ decision teaches us however is that the bar to do anything on policy – particularly on the easing front – is rather high," writes Mazen Issa at TD Securities. "Most central banks have already hinted that Covid-19 is an emerging and potentially significant risk, but one that probably may not require monetary policy to offset."

Despite this, the short-end of the U.S. curve continues to exhibit a great degree of angst. Put-call skew for the two-year note (25-delta put less call implied volatility normalized by at the money) shows one-way traffic looking for lower yields via options. Citigroup has recommended a play that benefits from traders starting to price in a March rate cut, for instance – part of a broader trend of unease about the near-term outlook visible in bets on Eurodollar futures contracts.

In addition, the implied volatility of the two-year yield over the next three months remains elevated, despite the asymmetry in the Federal Reserve's potential moves in the short term (tilted towards easing).

All this talk about the nascent calm in Treasuries could be torn asunder by the price action on Friday, however. In the limited history in which the coronavirus is top of mind for market participants, Fridays have seen the largest weekly decline in the 10-year Treasury yield on three out of three occasions. The reasoning is simple: things could always get worse over the weekend, and it's better to be (in) safe (assets) than be sorry.  

Smooth sailing into the weekend is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for showing the market has settled into an unstable equilibrium that incorporates a whole lot of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus.

Growth Comes First

The coronavirus is indisputably a negative impetus for Chinese growth. But increasingly, it's becoming apparent that it isn't thebiggest threat to the country's debt-fueled boom. If anything it may be an excuse to perpetuate it, as borrowing coststumble.

The growth slowdown is going well beyond what stress tests envisaged as a worst-case scenario for Chinese banks. But any downside may well be mitigated thanks to the Chinese leadership's resolve to avoid adverse outcomes on this front.

The tolerance for debt may allow for the mitigation of financial risks in the short term, even without a commensurate boost to activity. Anti-epidemic bond issuance is heating up, but lots of that debt is just being refinanced. That means it isn't necessarily adding much to efforts to mitigate the virus's spread or stimulus in general.

The virus continues to challenge price discovery, though, with daily turnover on cash bonds slumping to one-third of its 12-month average.

From Periphery to Inner Circle

For the first time in far too long, the European Union is getting reasonably close to delivering on the promise that some termed as not just giving Germany the same exchange rate as Greece, but Greece the same borrowing costs as Germany.

Greek bonds are trading below 1% yields despite having a junk rating. Investors are even contemplating the possibility of sub-zero Greek rates. The spread between Italian and German yields similarly narrowed thanks to a big rally in BTPs.

We are living in a world in which investment-grade bonds stateside are clearly more of a duration product than a credit product.

If credit is trading as a rates product, the things that are actually sovereign rates product should definitely reflect that reality too.

Judged Judy

This week brought a Senate​​ confirmation hearing for Fed board nominees Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller (though it seemed like few senators were interested in questioning him.
This newsletter has discussed Shelton's nomination here and here in previous iterations. The past proponent of gold standards and a North American currency union put some distance from her record in front of the committee, but came under fire from senators on both sides of the aisle for her extensive commentary on these fronts, as well as others.

Three Republicans expressed concern about her candidacy following the hearing – and only one is needed to shutter it.

Larry Kudlow, meanwhile, attempted to bolster support for the beleaguered candidate.

Two prior Fed picks from Trump's White House who failed to make it out of the gate (Herman Cain and, especially, Stephen Moore) were undone by baggage and commentary that had little to do with monetary policy. Shelton's nomination is the first real test of the commitment to orthodoxy for Fed members in an administration both celebrated and criticized for its heterodox leanings in appointments in general.

The Fed seemingly stands as an institution whose personnel and practices have avoided any semblance of partisan taint. In practical, market terms, this may help explain why ultra-low U.S. borrowing costs and the robust dollar have not been undermined by any of the tumult in domestic politics over the past few years.

Potpourri

Carney is relieved the Bank of England never went to negative rates.

Everyone still wants to borrow in euros.

Low rates, QE and forward guidance are facts of life for the Fed.

Libor transition hits hurdle as SOFR-linked bond sales slump.

And Libor's death has one debt guru scared that Asia isn't ready.

 

 

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