All eyes on New Hampshire tonight

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VIEW IN BROWSER | SUBSCRIBE TUE, FEB 11, 2020 CNBC POLITICS EDITOR'S NOTE Hello,    It's time for round 2 in the Democratic primary race, and it's Bernie Sanders' to lose.   After what was essentially a split decision in Iowa – Sanders had slightly more support among voters, while former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg was allocated slightly more delegates – the Vermont senator is poised to win today's New Hampshire primary. As CNBC politics reporter Jacob Pramuk points out, Sanders' 2016 win in New Hampshire proved that he would be a force for Democratic favorite Hillary Clinton to reckon with. This time, it's Sanders' chance to prove that he is the front-runner for the nomination, at least in these early stages.   So much can change after tonight. Polls start closing around 7 p.m. ET, and it's likely the results will be easier to sort out than what happened in the botched Iowa caucuses. Over the past week surveys have shown that Sanders and Buttigieg, who is drawing even more interest from big-money donors, look like they're locked into the no. 1 and 2 positions in New Hampshire. Third place, meanwhile, could go a long way for three other contenders.   Former Vice President Joe Biden doesn't expect to win today, but he probably needs a stronger-than-expected finish in New Hampshire. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who placed ahead of Biden in Iowa, would show she's capable of weathering some shots herself if she comes in third. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, meanwhile, has run one of the grittiest campaigns so far. A third place finish may give her the momentum to fight into Super Tuesday on March 3. That day will have more than a dozen primaries, including delegate-heavy California and Texas.   And yet, the biggest winner tonight might be a candidate who isn't even on the ballot in New Hampshire: Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire former mayor of New York has spent tons of money on broadcast and web ads, and it's paying off in the polls. He is cutting into fellow moderate Biden's standing with rank-and-file Democrats who want to back a candidate with a winning pedigree and strategy. Bloomberg's big play is Super Tuesday, which is when Biden was hoping to put a hammerlock on the nomination. If Biden flames out before then, we could be heading toward a scenario where Sanders and Bloomberg are the last people standing.    Think about that. Bernie vs. the billionaire. In a way, it seems inevitable, given the way Democratic politics have been heading in recent years. It's also the fight Bernie Sanders has been picking for decades, so no one should expect him to back down.   Thanks for reading.   Thoughts? Email me at CNBCPolitics@nbcuni.com.     Have friends or colleagues who might like this newsletter? They can sign up here.  Mike Calia @Michael_Calia KEY STORIES  Bernie Sanders hopes New Hampshire primary will tighten his early grip on the Democratic race Bernie Sanders looks for New Hampshire to deliver a big Democratic primary win in 2020 after the state overwhelmingly backed him in 2016. Pete Buttigieg sees surge in support from business execs after his strong showing in Iowa Pete Buttigieg is seeing a surge of support from previously undecided business executives as he rises in the polls and Joe Biden sinks. Here's where S&P 500 CEOs are placing their bets on 2020 campaigns S&P 500 CEOs spent big in the fourth quarter of 2019, giving both Republicans and Democrats a boost going into a pivotal election year. 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