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After the acquittal, then what?

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Today's Agenda

And Now We Return To, Um, Governance

Sometime very soon, maybe before you get around to reading this newsletter, the U.S. Senate will vote to acquit President Donald Trump of the impeachment charges brought by those sticklers for the rule of law from the other side of Capitol Hill. When this happens, Jonathan Bernstein and Noah Feldman will of course have mind-blowingly wise things to say about it, and if you are so inclined you just can keep refreshing their author pages (Jonathan's; Noah's) until those things show up. Also, if you're sad about the whole thing being over, Cass Sunstein has some swell news for you: Kenneth Starr's warning that we are entering an "age of impeachment" may have been lacking in self-awareness, but it wasn't necessarily wrong.

What's going to be the post-impeachment focus in Washington? One thing we can be reasonably sure of, writes Ramesh Ponnuru, is that it won't involve scaling back Social Security or Medicare. Whatever he might have told CNBC in Davos, in reality President Trump will come nowhere near that particular political third rail. If a moderate Democrat beats him November, reforms might be slightly more likely, but still "a longshot."

We can, on the other hand, count on the president to keep looking for non-legislative ways to cut back on immigration. Noah Smith thinks that's shame, and that the newly Supreme-Court-approved policy to bar immigrants who are "likely at any time to become a public charge" will also bar lots of people with the potential become big successes. We can also apparently count on the State Department to continue to be a dysfunctional mess, since Kori Schake contends that it was dysfunctional even before Trump came to Washington.

Why We Watch Super Bowl Ads

Even as they spend more and more of their money on streaming services that let them avoid advertisements, Americans will be gathering around their televisions Sunday evening to watch … advertisements. Well, there's apparently some sort of sportsball event involved, too, but Tara Lachapelle isn't so interested in that. Instead, she wonders why it is that so many people are willing to sit through Super Bowl ads, and whether this bears lessons for streaming services looking for ways to keep the fees they charge from getting totally out of hand.

After watching the most-liked of last year's Super Bowl ads (it involved Christina Applegate and an M&M's chocolate bar), Tara concludes that it doesn't pack the entertainment value of, say, "Schitt's Creek." But it isn't un-entertaining, and it's quite brief — Super Bowl ads in general are getting shorter. "If watching this silly M&M's ad meant I could stream for free," she writes, "then I might take that option."

Avoiding Alcohol in January Is Nice, But Not Enough

Dryuary is just about over, meaning that the many people who abstained from alcohol for the month can finally have another drink. Max Nisen wonders if focusing so much on a single month is a mistake, giving that alcohol abuse causes problems all year round, and they're getting worse. For example, alcohol-related deaths have more than doubled in the U.S. since 1997:

One alcohol-abuse policy lever that's used only sparingly in the U.S. is taxes, with average alcohol taxes lower here than in just about any other wealthy country except Canada. Raising them would be unpopular, Max acknowledges, but he thinks "a broader conversation about alcohol regulation" in the U.S. is long overdue.

Your Daily Dose of Coronavirus

Another day, another scary bunch of news reports about that up-and-coming new virus. John Authers writes that financial markets are, in their own fitful way, doing their best to make sense of the risks. Shuli Ren, on the other hand, worries that reliable information on the disease and its impact on the Chinese economy remains so scarce that traders are left with "wild guessing games." One thing that does seem clear, Brooke Sutherland reports, is that the virus and the travel disruptions it's causing are more bad news for beleaguered Boeing and its beleaguered suppliers. And Stephen Carter argues that the best solution to coronavirus-related shortages of face masks is some good old-fashioned price gouging.

Telltale Charts

A dozen years ago, energy stocks made up 16% of the value of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Now, after terrible earnings reports from Chevron and Exxon Mobil, that share dropped below 4% this week for the first time in at least four decades. The underlying problem, explains Liam Denning, is weak returns on investment, especially at Exxon.

They used to build lots of houses in California. Lately, not so many. The failure this week in Sacramento of the pro-construction Senate Bill 50 would seem to portend more of the same, but there are reasons to think the state's attitude toward new housing is changing, writes, um, me.

Further Reading

Funding three companies' efforts to destroy one another may not be an optimal investment strategy. — Matt Levine

Boris Johnson wants you to stop using the word "Brexit." — Therese Raphael

Reforms meant to save pension funds after the 2008 crash could kill them in the next downturn. — Aaron Brown

Cheap fitness clubs are hot, which

is bad news for expensive fitness clubs. — Andrea Felsted

Inadequate housing supply and rising prices are canceling out the low-rate windfall for homebuyers. — Conor Sen

New ECB President Christine Lagarde turned optimistic too early. — Ferdinando Giugliano

Things are still pretty gloomy in the manufacturing sector. — Brooke Sutherland

ICYMI

Not a great day for the stock market.

The top two guys at Credit Suisse are not getting along.

This year's flu season has already claimed 10,000 lives in the U.S.

Locust storms of "biblical proportions" are plaguing East Africa.

Kickers

All phone chargers should be the same, says the European Parliament.

At this year's Super Bowl, the drinks will be served in aluminum cups.

The "U.S. survey foot" is

being phased out.

The Mumbai Police made a funny video about honking.

Note: Please send non-alcoholic cocktail recipes and complaints to Justin Fox at justinfox@bloomberg.net. (Mark Gongloff will be back on Monday).

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