Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. Coronavirus concerns remain top of the agenda, Ireland's election appears to have upended the establishment and Angela Merkel's intended successor is struggling. Here's what's moving markets. Virus Spread Three European countries have now reported coronavirus infections stemming from a single British man who visited a French ski resort after having been to a conference in China, raising concerns as to how far the illness has spread. Infections on a closely watched Japanese cruise ship are also still rising. The total toll from coronavirus has now topped SARS, too, even if a U.K. study suggests it may be nearing its peak. China says it has spent $4.5 billion to battle the outbreak and the attention will continue to be on how big a toll it will take on the economy. Responses Central banks are starting to consider seriously what they may have to do to ease the bruising the outbreak will give to economic growth. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is due to deliver two days of Congressional testimony this week and the damage coronavirus stands to cause the the global outlook is likely to be high on the agenda. Elsewhere, economists are getting creative in the difficult mission of gauging how much damage the store closures, flight cancellations and factory shutdowns will have. And oil will be closely watched amid signs the OPEC+ group won't imminently respond to the virus threat while also deciphering what impact unlocking Libyan oil output could have. Three Parties The election in Ireland saw the traditional system upended, with a surge for the nationalist Sinn Fein leaving it in a virtual dead heat with the incumbent Fine Gael and opposition party Fianna Fail ahead, according to result projections. Attention will now be paid to what role Sinn Fein will have, if any, in governing after its left-wing platform struck a chord with voters. The focus now moves to forming a government, with all the uncertainty that can bring, so it'll be worth keeping an eye on Irish assets, particularly bonds, to see what the impact may be for markets. One-Woman Show Angela Merkel's intended successor as German chancellor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, struggled into the weekend to rein in her conservative party`s Thuringia state chapter, after it had aligned itself with the far right to elect a new state premier. Only after Merkel cut short a trip to lay down the law from her chancellery in Berlin did the embattled new state premier resign, sending all parties back to the drawing board. The crisis appears to have damaged Kramp-Karrenbauer's prospects for leading her party in the future, according to a weekend poll. Coming Up… Asian stocks slipped as the virus news continued to dominate, albeit not at the quantum seen in previous weeks, and European stock futures are pointing to a slightly lower open. Monday won't too too busy a day for earnings in Europe but there could be plenty of attention on the reinsurance sector, a sentence one does not often get to write in 5 Things. France's Covea is in advanced talks to acquire PartnerRe from Italy's Exor NV for around $9 billion, both sides have now confirmed following a Bloomberg report. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning Last week's jump in U.S. stocks to fresh all-time highs showed signs of narrowing market participation that could raise further question marks over the strength of the equity rally. Despite the S&P 500 Index climbing to a new record on Thursday, its equal-weighted counterpart remains below its peak from January. The latter index is a good measure of overall equity engagement because it equalizes influence across all underlying companies, essentially adjusting for the performance of the megacap stocks. The potentially negative divergence is one of a number of warning signs for the U.S. stock rally. Another comes from inside selling. Corporate executives and officers have stepped up selling shares in their own companies — so much so that there were five insider sales for every one buy last week, according to data compiled by Washington Service. That's poised to be the highest since early 2017, as my colleague Lu Wang noted on Friday. Many will argue that it's the price action in U.S. equities that should be respected, and that you don't want to be short. But there's enough going on beneath the surface, notwithstanding the still-spreading coronavirus, to be extra cautious on chasing any further U.S. stock gains for now. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
Post a Comment