Vladimir Putin's replacement of his government and plan for sweeping reforms of Russia's constitution look like an opening gambit in a strategy to see out the decade still in power.
While he must step down as president in 2024 under term limits, Kremlin officials have long been examining ways to prolong his 20-year rule.
Typically, the former KGB agent isn't showing his hand now. Instead, he is creating options for maximum flexibility that keep everyone around him off kilter but also loyal. Long-serving premier Dmitry Medvedev was let go with a handshake, then kept onside with a new role on Russia's Security Council.
While many Russians see Putin as a guarantor of stability, recent street protests revealed a hunger for change, fueled by sliding living standards. Incoming prime minister Mikhail Mishustin is a low-profile technocrat who transformed tax collection. If he succeeds in reviving Russia's economy, his star may rise.
Putin's constitutional plans potentially weaken the presidency and boost parliament, allowing him to rein in his chosen heir. They also strengthen the State Council, now an advisory body that could become a tool to control developments after he leaves office.
The president, 67, is not immortal. There is always the risk that squabbling factions plunge Russia into political uncertainty. But he's shown he remains strongly in charge, and for now how long he chooses to rule is in his hands.
— Tony Halpin
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