Coronavirus is a global health emergency, it's Brexit day, and Trump trial likely to end today. WHO saysThe World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency as the number of cases continues to climb, with 9,809 confirmed in China. The first cases in the U.K. were reported this morning. The economic costs of the outbreak are mounting ahead of the reopening of Chinese markets on Monday, when a barrage of selling is expected. Even as equity trading reopens, the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday means that at least two-thirds of the country's economy will stay shuttered next week. Brexit day The countdown to the U.K.'s exit from the European Union finally reaches its end today as the country ceases to be a member of the bloc at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. Muted celebrations and commemorative coins aside, little will actually change as the two sides have agreed a transition period until the end of this year to allow negotiation of the new relationship between both sides. The one thing analysts and economists seem to be in agreement with is that the future for the U.K. is uncertain. Acquittal It seems that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been able to muster enough votes to block the calling of new witnesses in the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump. Should Republicans win those votes, then the Senate will move quickly to the vote on impeachment which Trump is certain to win, wrapping up the inquiry today. An acquittal today would give Trump the opportunity to claim vindication ahead of his State of the Union speech on Tuesday. Markets slipGlobal equities are lower again this morning. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier rally to drop 0.2% while Japan's Topix index managed to hold on to some gains to close 0.6% higher. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.6% lower at 5:50 a.m. after data showed the euro area barely managed to eke out an expansion in the final quarter of 2019. S&P 500 futures pointed to a drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.558% and gold gained. Coming up…At 8:30 a.m. the PCE report is expected to show U.S. consumer spending and household income slowed in December, while the inflation component may rise slightly to 1.6%. The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number is at 10:00 a.m. Earnings focus will turn to the oil market today with Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. both reporting. Caterpillar Inc., often cited as a global economy bellwether, also announces results before the bell. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. And finally, here's what Luke's interested in this morningThe Treasury market may be getting close to Defcon One. But outside of commodities, other cross-asset signals are fairly deaf to that angst. In credit, primary markets are far from closed even for junk bonds. While high yield hasn't done well lately, it could've been much worse given the shift in the VIX term structure into backwardation. Boeing Co., meanwhile, received $14 billion in orders from banks for a $10 billion term loan facility, which has since been upsized to $12 billion. Investors added another $4.4 billion to investment-grade bond funds for the week ending Jan. 29, with the yield-to-worst for the Bloomberg Investment Grade bond Index just 3 basis points shy of its record low. While many were expecting something resembling a pull-back in stocks since mid-January in light of the speed of the rally, the nature of the retreat may help prevent its impact on the real economy. The crowded trade in richly valued growth and tech stocks has not been unwound. To the contrary, such segments are up while others falter. Investors are hitting transports and energy, rather than dumping risk and winners indiscriminately. Since a lot of growth names (especially software) act as duration proxies, outperformance might be expected – though perhaps not to this degree. A negative one-to-two standard deviation monthly move in 10-year yields has typically coincided with negative stock returns. With one trading session left to go in January, that isn't the case for the S&P 500. To the extent that there was a disagreement between the Treasury market and the stock market last year, the latter won. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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