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Solving one Trump tax mystery opens another

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Today's Agenda

The plot thickens.

Photographer: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images

Trump's New Tax Mystery

If the Trump presidency were a TV show, then the contents of his tax returns would be a foundational mystery of the plot, right up there with whether Gilligan will ever get off that island, who will take the Iron Throne and whatever the whole deal was with "Lost." Now its shocking resolution in a late-season twist raises even more troubling mysteries.

By now you have probably read some of the New York Times's masterful reporting on the contents of President Donald Trump's long-promised, never-delivered tax documents. They paint a vivid picture of someone who is either unusually bad at business or unusually good at avoiding taxes, or both, as Tim O'Brien — one of the few people who has actually seen any of Trump's returns — notes. It takes something special to claim to be a billionaire but also only pay $750 in taxes in a full year.

Trump's supporters are relieved the documents explicitly lacked income sources such as "Doing Fraud for Russia" or whatever. But as Tim writes, they show the president of the United States is hundreds of millions of dollars in fast-maturing debt to still-mysterious lenders, some likely in foreign locales. This is an unprecedented national-security threat, Tim writes. And these returns likely understate just how deeply Trump is in the red. "What does the president owe, and to whom does he owe it?" will be a huge question as we head into the finale and a possible second season. 

SPAC Mentality

Sure, memories are short these days, but come on. We're still sorting out what exactly is up with Nikola, the revenue-light electric-truck maker sponsored by a special-purpose acquisition vehicle, or SPAC, that has become somewhat embarrassing for all involved. But investors just can't get enough of a different SPAC about to take public a different revenue-light company involved in electric trucking, notes Chris Bryant. Both Nikola and this company, Hyliion, may well lead the world into a glorious future of electric trucking. Still, investors at least need reminding just how much money SPAC sponsors are milking out of these deals, Chris writes, money that's not going to retail investors or the companies being SPACed.  

A Quarter in a Month

The coronavirus pandemic has tossed most everything about our normal lives into an industrial-strength fan, spraying it all over the place. This is particularly true for shopping. We're all doing it less often, or more often, or more online, or at weirder times, than ever before. Imagine how much fun this is for retailers! And the business will be particularly nightmarish this October, writes Sarah Halzack. In a month that typically involves clearing out Halloween candy to make room for Christmas merch, we've now also got:

  1. delayed back-to-school shopping still happening;
  2. possibly early holiday sales to avoid Covid-carrying Black Friday crowds; and
  3. a delayed Amazon Prime day, which usually forces retailers into online sales of their own. 

Imagine designing a business plan that accounts for all of this while also keeping employees and customers safe, and you have some idea of the logistical nightmare these retailers face.

Telltale Charts

As oil demand slumps, Saudi Arabia and Russia are disagreeing again on how to handle it, notes Julian Lee. Their last tiff ended in disaster for oil.

The biggest university endowments keep pouring money into hedge funds at a time when hedge funds are terrible, writes John Authers. But then they have a longer-term view, which tends to work out for them. 

Further Reading

Trump risks destroying the CDC's credibility by making it serve him politically. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

Amy Coney Barrett deserves to be on the Supreme Court. — Noah Feldman

The economy might not be as terrible as we think for the next president. — Conor Sen 

The restaurants and shops serving London's lunchtime crowd may never recover. — Andrea Felsted 

Standing up for diversity at work means taking some personal risks. — Sarah Kaplan and Laura Morgan Roberts 

The unifying spirit of Lincoln is still alive in Trenton and Philadelphia, of all places. — Frank Barry 

Want an education in American patriotism? Here are some books to read. — Bloomberg's editors 

ICYMI

Saudi Arabia sent the world's first shipment of blue ammonia to Japan.

Inside the JPMorgan trading desk prosecutors call a crime ring.

Early Covid treatments could be a "bridge" to a vaccine.

Kickers

We were promised flying cars and got ransom-demanding coffee makers instead. (h/t Scott Kominers

Scientists now understand why some tarantulas are blue. — (h/t Mike Smedley

Scientists find three more underground lakes on Mars

How to digitize your old paper notebooks.

How to survive a long winter lockdown like a Norwegian.

Note: Please send blue ammonia and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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