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Now for phase two

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

Markets seem to be shrugging off the much anticipated trade deal and there is some confusion about when phase two will go ahead, while Hong Kong protesters clash with police as the city's chief executive heads to Beijing. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Now for Phase Two 

No date has been set so far for the U.S. and China to kick off "phase two" trade talks, said U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, contradicting a suggestion by President Donald Trump that negotiations would start right away. For now, the two sides are focused on implementing the agreement reached on Friday, which is expected to be signed in January, he said. The pact will see the U.S. reduce tariffs on imports from China. Beijing promises to significantly increase purchases of U.S. farm goods and adhere to new commitments on intellectual property, forced technology transfer and currency.

Markets Mixed

Asian stocks look set to start the week mixed after the partial U.S.-China trade deal, lacking concrete details, left analysts cold. The Australian dollar and the offshore yuan were firmer early Monday; yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries initially spiked on Friday, but fell back as the deal didn't live up to some analysts'  expectations.  The U.S. delayed levies on Chinese goods that were due to be imposed on Sunday, and China said it will suspend additional tariffs on certain American imports. On the docket this week, China November industrial production and retail sales data will be parsed Monday. On Friday, U.S. GDP is expected to show growth expanded. There is a Bank of Japan interest-rate decision Thursday.

Hong Kong Clashes

Hong Kong's demonstrators clashed with police late Sunday as Chief Executive Carrie Lam began a visit to Beijing, where she's expected to update Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior officials on the violent protests that have gripped the city for the past six months. The clash late Sunday followed a more subdued weekend for the city's demonstrations.  "The purpose of the duty visit is to give a full account of what has happened in Hong Kong over the past year," Lam said in a press briefing last week. "Particularly what has happened in Hong Kong in the last six months."

Huawei Threat

China's ambassador to Germany threatened Berlin with retaliation if it excludes Huawei Technologies as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment, citing the millions of vehicles German carmakers sell in China.  Ambassador Wu Ken's comments Saturday, at an event held by the Handelsblatt newspaper, come on the heels of growing resistance against Huawei among some lawmakers in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing coalition. They have challenged her China policy with a bill that would impose a broad ban on "untrustworthy" 5G vendors.

Singapore Returns

Singapore's hedge funds are trouncing global rivals in bigger cities like London and New York. The city-state is home to two of the top 10 in 2019, and a third is partly based in the island nation. In all of the U.S., there are only four, and zero in Europe or Hong Kong. Their individual successes come at a time when many investors are questioning the wisdom of pouring large amounts of money into hedge funds because of their high fees and mediocre returns. Hedge funds in Singapore are also shining as a group, generating an average return of 9.4% for clients in 2019, according to Eurekahedge. Read more about the three key theories behind the success of Singapore's chart-toppers here.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in this morning

On Friday, a number of bricks got knocked out of the market's proverbial "wall of worry" all at once. First there was an early and unexpectedly big win for the Conservatives in the U.K., which eliminated the dreaded tail risk of a hung parliament that would further drag its feet on Brexit. Then, the U.S. and China appeared to come to some sort of trade agreement (though you could describe it as more of a "trade truce"). The Federal Reserve also announced it would aim a fire hose of liquidity to soothe money market nerves ahead of the year-end, and China suggested it would improve its fiscal stimulus to boost its economy. It was a pretty bullish mix of events and so the S&P 500 closed up ... 0.01% higher.

Some of that muted response might have been because of the confusion around trade headlines. So it will be very interesting to see how markets perform on Monday, now that there's more clarity around those. It's possible that, with the outlook more settled, we will see a renewed rush into risk assets. But it's also possible that with a bunch of those "headline risks" seemingly out of the way, any weakness in economic data starts to look more worrying: Investors can't just blame it on Brexit or trade war uncertainty. In other words, with a bunch of short- to medium-term risks knocked out of the market, it's possible that investors turn their attention to pondering bigger problems ⁠— like the length and durability of the current economic cycle.

You can follow Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway at @tracyalloway.

 

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