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Five Things
Bloomberg

China-U.S. trade talks under threat, France is latest Trump tariff target, and another retail record.

Worth waiting for?

President Donald Trump suggested that he would be happy to wait until after the 2020 election to do a trade deal with China, adding that Beijing wants one now. Stocks futures fell after his comments. In further signs of increasing tensions between the two nations, Chinese state media said the government would soon publish a list of "unreliable entities" which could lead to sanctions against U.S. companies. The next round of tariffs on Chinese goods is due to kick in on Dec. 15, and investors are starting to become concerned that market consensus of a delay in implementation may be proven wrong

This again 

France said the European Union would retaliate if the U.S. follows through on a threat to unleash tariffs on $2.4 billion of exports. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced the move yesterday in response to the imposition of a 3% "digital tax" by Emmanuel Macron's administration. The levies are due to come into force in early 2020. Both Trump and Macron are in London today for the 70th anniversary of the NATO alliance, with the U.S. president already taking the opportunity to criticize the French tax

Cyber sales

E-commerce platforms such as Amazon.com Inc. were the biggest beneficiaries from yesterday's record-setting Cyber Monday sales that saw spending jump 17% from a year ago, according to Adobe Inc. The strong performance yesterday comes on the back of record online sales on Black Friday as consumers continue to increasingly move away from brick-and-mortar stores.  

Markets mixed

President Trump's comments on the timing of a trade deal are pushing stocks lower. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.4% while Japan's Topix index, which had closed before Trump spoke on trade, ended the session 0.5% lower. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was flat at 6:27 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures were firmly in the red, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.793% and gold higher.

Coming up…

The main event to keep an eye on this morning is the NATO meeting in London, where the U.S. president is already making headlines with comments on trade and France. U.S. auto sales data for November is published later. Salesforce.com Inc. and Workday Inc. are among companies reporting earnings. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

These days everyone (including me) is talking about the eventual hand-off from monetary to fiscal policy, as rates go lower and lower with seemingly little growth

to show for it. But when and where it will actually happen is still to be determined. The thing with fiscal stimulus is that it's not enough to say it's justified, necessary or doable, a country also needs the political capacity to make it happen. So, for example, in a politically divided country (such as the U.S.) opposition parties are usually going to oppose it. It seems there's a growing view that the U.K. may be the first out of the gate. In an interview this morning on Bloomberg TV, Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen said that he expects a Boris Johnson government to unleash the biggest fiscal expansion since the 1970s and enough growth to heal deep divisions in the U.K. Meanwhile just yesterday Steve Englander of Standard Chartered wrote that Britain is the most likely G10 country to turn to fiscal stimulus to cushion the economic impact of Brexit. In other words, between the mediocre economy, and a possible (though anything can happen) Conservative majority, the conditions just might be in place to crank up the spending. While the ongoing U.K. political drama is probably annoying to some, it will at least produce numerous interesting real-life economic experiments for people to analyze for years to come. So at least there's that.

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