| CNN's Harry Enten earlier this week said something pretty reasonable: "Seems well within the bounds of possibilities that Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg or Biden win IA and NH. All could finish fourth in both too. Crazy." My response? Any of them could finish as badly as seventh in Iowa. After all, Senator Kamala Harris peaked at 16% and second place in the RealClearPolitics Iowa polling average back in August. Now — just three months later — she's a bit below 3%, behind six other candidates. We're about three months away from the caucuses now. I'll admit it's a stretch to imagine Senator Elizabeth Warren, who leads the Iowa average at 23%, falling that far that fast. But the rest? Sure. Again, there's a long history of dramatic late movement in Iowa and a consensus among pollsters that surveys for the caucuses are unusually challenging. So much so that the real surprise would be if things stayed stable until the end. After all, it's not just the four current polling leaders who could wind up doing well. Harris wouldn't be the first candidate to surge, collapse and then fully recover. Senator Amy Klobuchar is on something of a minor upswing; no one knows how many voters might jump to her if she moves up enough to look like one of the leaders. The same goes for Senator Cory Booker, who hasn't had any recent polling success, but (like Klobuchar) has enough support from party actors that if he somehow starts moving he could attract serious resources, which would boost his polling, which would attract more resources, and so on. And that's not all! Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and activist Tom Steyer have little support from party actors, and I don't think they're plausible nominees. But both will be in the next debate and Steyer in particular is spending a lot of money. Pretty much any candidate can have a short-term surge, even if Yang and Steyer are a lot less likely to ride one all the way to the nomination than Booker, Harris or Klobuchar would be. Among other things, all this means that it's practically impossible to game out what would happen next. Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign has been making the case that he could lose in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and still take South Carolina, where his lead remains strong. Is that possible? Sure, if he finishes a close second to a candidate who does poorly with black voters. It's also plausible that Biden could finish a weak fifth in Iowa and never be a factor again. And that, in turn, has all sorts of implications for other candidates. A Warren, Biden, Bernie Sanders finish in Iowa obviously produces a far different contest going forward than one in which South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg wins, Warren finishes second and Klobuchar finishes third. Even figuring out which demographic groups would support which candidates is difficult without knowing what the alternatives are or how the campaigns will reposition themselves after each contest. Sure, it's possible that this time the big surprise will be that there's no late surprises. But that's not where I'd put my money. 1. Dave Hopkins on the impeachment resolution and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 2. Casey Burgat on how the rules Democrats are adopting for impeachment leave some room for hardball. 3. Emily Sydnor on civility and President Donald Trump at the ballgame. 4. Dan Cassino on what Democratic voters think about older candidates. 5. Julia Marin Hellwege at Mischiefs of Faction on Native American representation in Congress. 6. Brendan Nyhan on phony local news. 7. Daniel Nichanian on criminal justice and voting rights on November ballots. 8. Claire Gothreau on Representative Katie Hill and women in politics. 9. Jonathan Shaub with some ideas about executive privilege. 10. And a great one from Niels Lesniewski that answers a question some will soon be asking: What happens if there's turnover in the Senate during an impeachment trial? Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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