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Hollywood Torrent: Country music’s first streaming superstar, Disney+’s Netflix effect

Hollywood Torrent
Hollywood Torrent
From Bloomberg
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Good afternoon from New York, wherever you may be. I'm out here for Thanksgiving, and looking forward to a week of stuffing and pecan pie. After many weeks of talking about streaming video, let's talk about some streaming music.

Luke Combs has delivered country music's first streaming smash. The 29-year-old claimed the No. 1 album in the U.S. last week with "What You See Is What You Get," including the biggest week of streaming for a country album ever. He generated almost 74 million streams.

The music industry has been waiting for country fans to embrace the internet. Country music accounted for 9.3 percent of all U.S. album sales in the first half of 2019, but just 5.8 percent of streams.

This discrepancy is due largely to demographics. Streaming caught on first in urban centers and on the coasts, where hip-hop and pop dominate. Streaming also caught on first among younger users, who listen to more hip-hop and electronic music. To wit: R&B and hip-hop accounted for just 12 percent of album sales in the first half of the year, but almost 30 percent of streaming.

Every streaming service has pledged to be the one that will get country fans online, opening offices in Nashville, the epicenter of country music. Amazon signed an exclusive deal with Garth Brooks. Spotify created country playlists. But up until this week, the most-streamed country album was still a Gene Autry Christmas record.  

Country fans, like rock fans, are a bit older, on average, and still more likely to buy CDs.  Combs's album, meanwhile, generated the most streams of anyone not named Post Malone. He bested Posty overall thanks to more traditional sales, moving 108,880 albums, by far the most. A second album of his, "This One's For You," racked up another 21 million streams.

And while the top 10 artists on YouTube last week all fall under hip-hop or Latin (we need a better term), Combs clocked in at No. 11.

Why did Combs break through? He appeals to a younger fan base – hence the YouTube views -- and he may be proof that streaming music has finally penetrated all corners of society.  – Lucas Shaw

Programming note: The newsletter will be taking next week off.

 
The Netflix killers didn't murder anyone

The debut of rival services from Apple and Disney hasn't affected Netflix much -- at least not yet.

External measurements of app downloads and search terms suggest a similar number of people are signing up for Netflix this quarter as a year ago (if not more). And Netflix's internal data indicates the number of customers canceling Netflix hasn't accelerated around the debut of those services, as we reported this week.

Now, let's address the caveats: 

  • We don't know how many people have signed up for Netflix this quarter, which may be the true measure of the impact of competition.
  • A couple weeks is a tiny sample size. Anyone who thought Netflix would suffer mass defections right away was crazy given all the free trials of other services. The true effects of competition will reveal themselves over months and years, not weeks.

But Wall Street has been closely watching to see how new streaming platforms -- particularly Disney's -- will affect Netflix's dominance. Netflix's shares fell after Disney reported its Disney+ service attracted 10 million subscribers within a day of launching in North America, a pace that blew past analysts' predictions. And many in the press have labeled Disney+ a "Netflix killer."

The early results buttress Netflix's argument that there's room for many competitors, and the success of new rivals won't be at its expense. Many customers will be fine with paying for both the $7-a-month Disney+ and the $13-a-month Netflix as they transition away from cable and satellite packages, Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings has said. 

Newcomers lead the Grammy nominations

Lizzo earned the most Grammy nominations of any act this week, including a slot in all four of the main categories: record of the year, song of the year, album of the year and best new artist.  She is one of two acts to do so this year, along with Billie Eilish. Another best new artist nominee, Lil Nas X, earned six nods.

All three reflect the modern music business, where genres are fluid and conventions are meant to be broken. Lizzo is nominated for Grammys in three different genres (pop, R&B and urban contemporary), while Lil Nas X is nominated in both pop and rap. He's not nominated in country, despite the controversy over whether "Old Town Road" counts as a country song.

How do we explain this youth movement at the Grammys? This is an award show that has historically favored the established over the new. The newcomers that breakthrough tend to have a classic sound, like Alicia Keys or Adele.

Perhaps we can credit an influx of new voters, and a conscious effort by the Recording Academy to diversify its voting base. Though while the academy has made progress in nominating younger musicians and female acts, it looks like we will pass another year without hip-hop winning a top prize.

The No. 1 movie in the world is "Frozen II." The movie grossed $127 million in North America this weekend, and has garnered $350 million worldwide.

The sequel to the 2013 hit should dominate the Thanksgiving holiday week, but topping the original would require staying power. The original grossed more than $20 million a week for 7 consecutive weeks, and topped $10 million for 11 straight weeks.

 

The week that was

  1. Scooter Braun pleaded with Taylor Swift to negotiate. The music manager said Swift's criticism of his acquisition of her old record label has led to death threats against his family.
  2. The Department of Justice has asked a court to terminate the Paramount consent decrees, which have governed the U.S. movie business for 70 years. The DOJ believes they are no longer relevant in the age of streaming and multiplexes. This could lead to companies like Disney and Netflix buying up theater chains, but the greater risk, theater owners say, is the lifting of the ban on "block booking," which would allow the most powerful studios to force theaters to take their bad movies if they want the good ones. 
  3. Anita Hill takes on Hollywood's #MeToo Culture. The Hollywood Commission, which Hill leads, has created a survey to examine systemic bias and abuse of power in the entertainment industry.
  4. Apple delayed the release of one of its movies due to "concerns." Turns out the son of the subject of "The Banker" has been accused of being a child molester by his step sister. Apple has delayed the release until it concludes its review of the allegations.
  5. Rothman Brecher Ehrich Livingston, a literary agency that represents the co-creator of "The Big Bang Theory," signed the writers' guild's franchise agreement. It is the latest mid-sized agency to break ranks with the big boys and agree not to package clients.
  6. The producer of "Bohemian Rhapsody" is making a Michael Jackson biopic. While many have condemned Jackson as a child molester, the pop star's estate continues to cook up new business deals.
  7. Google introduced Stadia, its new cloud gaming service. Reviews were mixed, but most boiled down to this one from Kotaku: "Google's Stadia is Not Ready for Primetime."
 

Weekly playlist

I just fell in love with "Shea Butter Baby," the debut album from singer-songwriter Ari Lennox. Lennox is the first woman signed to J. Cole's Dreamville record label, and her new album is the best thing I've heard in a long, long time.

 
 

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