| Democrats are worried about Tulsi Gabbard, the House member from Hawaii and presidential candidate. They're not worried that she'll win the nomination; she's in ninth place or so nationally and there's no plausible path to winning for a candidate who has virtually no support from party actors and very little from voters. No, they're concerned that she's going to launch a third-party general-election run for the presidency. The good news for them? There's no reason to worry about her.
To begin with, while there have been two very close elections recently, in 2000 and 2016, most elections aren't that close and the odds are this one won't be either. Democrats have been hurt by third-party candidacies before, in particular by Ralph Nader's Green Party run in 2000, in which he appeared to be deliberately trying to hurt Vice President Al Gore's chances. But Gabbard is no Ralph Nader. Nader was a famous activist for decades before he ran. He was able to generate an unusual amount of attention for a minor candidate, and Democrats worried with good reason that voters might choose him over Gore. In fact, Nader received 2.7% of the general-election vote, more than twice as much as all the other minor party and independent candidates combined. But here's the thing: There will be other names on the ballot whether Gabbard runs or not. And there's no reason to think that she'd win many votes. More likely, she'll resemble Cynthia McKinney, a former Democratic representative who ran as the Green Party candidate in 2008 and got fewer than 200,000 votes nationwide. Yes, the similarly obscure Jill Stein wound up with 1.5 million votes in 2016 after getting about a third of that in 2012. What that suggests, though, is that most third-party candidates gain traction not because voters love them, but because they dislike the major-party candidate who they'd otherwise vote for. This problem will mostly solve itself. Democratic voters really, really, really dislike President Donald Trump. They're going to be motivated to vote for whoever the party nominates. They're also going to be far less willing to risk a third-party vote after the 2016 election, just as voters in 2004 abandoned Nader when he ran again. And then there's Gabbard herself. I don't know if Jonathan Chait is correct about her motivations, but so far her strategy has included running an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal and going on Fox News programs. At that rate, she's more likely to appeal to Republicans than to Democrats — and it's not impossible that she could wind up taking more votes away from Trump than from his opponent. Sure, in a close election, anything could make a difference. But Gabbard would have to run, get on ballots, and then win votes that otherwise would've gone to the Democratic nominee and not to Trump or to other obscure third-party candidates. Is it possible? Sure. Should it be among the top 25 or so worries for Democrats? I can't see it. 1. Brian Klaas explains what a coup is, why impeachment isn't a coup, and why the president's rhetoric is dangerous. 2. Ronald R. Krebs and Jennifer Spindel at the Monkey Cage on what Trump did wrong in the Syria troop withdrawal. 3. Also at the Monkey Cage: Jessica F. Green on quitting the Paris climate agreement. 4. Chris Baylor at A House Divided continues his fascinating series on gay rights as an evolving policy question for Democrats. 5. And a very good piece from Jamelle Bouie on Trump's brand of populism. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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