| Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. There's a new date to mark on the calendar for U.K. politics fans, there's a potential mega-merger in the autos sector and the Federal Reserve's latest decision is coming. Here's what's moving markets. Dec. 12 Fetch your most fluorescent highlighter and put rings around Dec. 12 on the calendar, because that is when the U.K. is to have an election likely to play out as a proxy vote on Brexit. That's the same date Prime Minister Boris Johnson had proposed and which Parliament rejected a day before, but now seemingly there's a commitment that a no-deal departure is off the table. Now it will be time to start poring over polls and deciphering how to play an election campaign in markets, with some investors saying that any outcome will be better than the current status quo. But with the possibility of vote splitting and the specter of a hung Parliament, that could prove an optimistic view. Hawkish Cut Eyes have been trained on the saga in Westminster but after European markets close Wednesday, the biggest game in town for markets will arrive. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest policy decision and watchers expect it may hawkishly cut interest rates, with some officials likely not seeing the necessity to ease more. The policymakers will be considering an economy where consumer confidence has hit a four-month-low, where the shape of the economy is shifting away from manufacturing and a dollar that strategists think will remain strong no matter where rates go or if a recession emerges. Third-quarter U.S. GDP is due too and is expected to show a slowdown. Car Consolidation A potential mega-acquisition in the luxury goods space dominated trader chatter on Monday, but the ante has been upped. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's shares in the U.S. surged following a report that it's holding talks to merge with Peugeot and Citroen parent PSA Group. The pair had held talks about a partnership earlier in the year and Fiat Chrysler held failed talks with Renault SA, PSA's French rival, so watch the European autos sector for any reaction to the new consolidation speculation. Already though, questions have been raised about whether such a deal would solve the China woes the two companies face. Earnings Extravaganza Brace yourself for an onslaught of European earnings to digest in the next two days. For Wednesday, we've already had a positive update from emerging markets-focused bank Standard Chartered Plc and a mixed report from plane maker Airbus SE, plus a beat from Swiss bank Credit Suisse Group AG and a revenue miss from Deutsche Bank AG. We'll also have auto giant Volkswagen AG, French oil major Total SA, German chemicals giant Bayer AG, U.K. high street bellwether Next Plc and drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline Plc, so steel yourself for a busy session. Coming Up… Stocks had a mixed day in Asia as the Fed decision is awaited and U.S. stocks edged back from record highs. European futures are pointing to a flat open. Plenty more to keep an eye on in a busy day. Euro-area consumer confidence, German inflation and French GDP are all coming, as are rate decisions from both Canada and Brazil, a couple of European Central Bank policymakers will give speeches and South Africa's finance minister will present a budget policy statement. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning The can kicking is having an effect in global foreign exchange markets. A gauge of global currency volatility has slid to near record lows as previous threats to the world economy such as the escalating U.S.-China trade war and Brexit get pushed back or delayed. A lull in the onslaught of weaker-than-expected economic data has also likely played a part. While complacency is probably too strong a word, the fall in volatility does suggest a lack of fear being priced into exchange rates at the moment. Once this week's central bank meetings are over and the early November slew of data points are out of the way, traders will have a better sense of the monetary and economic outlook for the rest of the year. But there is still an early December tariff deadline to look forward to, and now a U.K. election to get ready for around the same time. There's no guarantee that volatility will stay low till year-end. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more. |
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