| In case you missed it, Howard Schultz, the former head of Starbucks Corp., is putting his independent campaign for president on hiatus for at least the next few months. There's still a long way to go until November 2020. But as things stand I wouldn't expect a revived campaign, if he even attempts one, to pick up any steam.
Schultz is suspending the campaign partly because he's recovering from back surgery. But the truth is that this is just another example of how difficult third-party or independent candidacies are in the U.S. system. Schultz benefited from an initial burst of publicity, despite little evidence that he had a thought-out policy agenda or any sense of what it would take to seriously compete for the presidency. But he faded quickly from there.
Why? For one thing, there are no events for an independent candidate to use to drive media attention. For another, most voters are partisans, and those who aren't tend not to be very engaged in politics.
When times are bad or a president is extremely unpopular, newly energized citizens may be open to outside candidacies. But President Donald Trump has managed to stay on the healthy side of 40% approval after his first year in office. He's unusually unpopular over the course of his presidency, but his current average of about 42% is better than where Jimmy Carter was at this point in 1979, or where George H.W. Bush was by the end of 1991. Both those elections produced relatively successful independent candidates. Trump's numbers could still slump while there's time for someone to jump in, but so far there's no sign of it.
Even if there was an opening, however, Schultz probably isn't the man for the job. He says he's planning to assess the Democratic race after Super Tuesday in March, and may jump back in if former Vice President Joe Biden isn't going to be the nominee. Put aside the fact that a billionaire is essentially demanding that the Democratic Party pick his favorite candidate or else. The plan isn't very sensible at any rate.
After Super Tuesday, one of two things will likely happen. The Democrats will have failed to settle on a nominee, in which case the remaining primaries and caucuses will be an exciting story that will leave little media attention for an outside candidate. Or someone will have emerged as the solid leader after the early events and done well enough on Super Tuesday to essentially lock up the nomination. In that case, the front-runner will almost certainly be getting a wave of positive publicity. It will thus be very late for a new candidate to establish a serious effort (including getting on enough ballots to run a national campaign).
Of course, in a close race between Trump and the Democratic nominee, it's possible that even a minor outside candidate could swing the election. Especially if that candidate runs strategically to hurt one of the nominees. But as far as gaining a serious foothold, the kind that would perhaps get him into the 10% range? I don't think that's in the cards.
1. Dan Drezner on resetting foreign policy after Trump.
2. Zoe Nemerever at the Monkey Cage on violence against the Bureau of Land Management.
3. Greg Sargent on Mitch McConnell and foreign interference in U.S. elections.
4. Jamelle Bouie on McConnell and Trump.
5. Fred Kaplan on Trump and secrets.
6. Christina Cauterucci on Ted Cruz, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and over-the-counter birth control.
7. And Nate Cohn on candidates qualifying – and not qualifying – for the Democratic presidential debates.
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