Header Ads

5 things to start your day

Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. Equities were mixed in Asia while crude oil continued to edge higher after an action-packed Thursday. A huge U.S. chipmaker slumped after cutting its forecast and China's president is having a rough few weeks. Here's what's moving markets.

Unlikely Winners

Stocks were mixed in Asia as Japanese shares edged higher but those in Hong Kong slipped as investors pondered the economic impact of recent protests. Futures on core European indices are mainly pointing higher, but it's worth noting that the world's top stock return this year has come from Greece. No, seriously: Greece. Sterling was steady as Boris Johnson looks ahead to more rounds of leadership voting next week as the standout favorite to pick up the keys to Number 10.

Oil Drama

Thursday was a dramatic day in the oil world. Crude soared as much as 4.5%, its biggest gain in about five months, on reports of an

assault on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for cargo from the Middle East. The incident came just a month after four vessels were sabotaged while sailing toward the Persian Gulf, in what the U.S. said was an Iranian attack using naval mines. Oil edged higher again overnight as the U.S. claimed a video showed Iranian involvement in the latest incident. But after all that, crude is still set for a weekly loss

Kitchen-Sinking

Chipmakers in Europe are likely to be feeling the heat today after Broadcom Inc., the U.S. firm with a $111 billion dollar market value, cut its annual sales forecast as it suggested the trade war between China and the U.S. will wipe out a rebound in orders it had previously predicted. The stock slumped 8.5% in the New York after-market, dragging many peers down with it. The firm may have been overly cautious however, with broker Piper Jaffray saying the company was "throwing out the entire kitchen with the kitchen sink."

Xi's Rough Patch

Chinese President Xi Jinping is now being assailed on at least two fronts. In the latest trade war updates, U.S. economic adviser Larry Kudlow warned overnight that Beijing will have to face consequences if Xi refuses an invitation for talks on tariffs, while there were also warnings of a possible currency devaluation. Meanwhile, his government has faced much criticism for its response to the mass protests in Hong Kong. Xi will hope for some some good news later when data on industrial production, retail sales and investment are released. 

Coming Up...

The Russian central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate later, while most economists are forecasting a second reduction in September as data shows inflation retreating and growth slowing. Elsewhere in central bank world, Bank of England governor Mark Carney speaks at a women in finance event in London this afternoon, with speculation rife over who his successor could be and how that could impact policy

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours: 

And finally, here's what Mark Cudmore is interested in this morning

EUR/USD has died as an asset. The ramifications go beyond FX trading strategies. The fourth quarter of 2018 was the tightest range for EUR/USD since the euro began. Until the first quarter of 2019 beat it. And, with just 11 days left, this quarter is almost guaranteed to slash the record further. The stability is good for trans-Atlantic business and trade. However, if the release valve and macro signal of the exchange rate is no longer working as it once was, there are other knock-on economic implications where the net effect is a bit less clear. Such a dynamic can't continue ad infinitum, by definition, but those who have been calling for a higher-volatility FX regime have long lost credibility. There's a risk of exceptional complacency building in the market, not just among FX traders, but also among asset managers and their currency hedges, or pension funds chasing yield-enhancing structures. Such a declining volatility playbook has been seen before and usually ends in tears for someone, but the first people to feel pain are those that are premature in calling for the cycle to end.

Mark Cudmore is a Bloomberg macro strategist and the Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog. Bloomberg Terminal users can follow him there at MLIV <GO>

Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

FOLLOW US Facebook Share Twitter Share SEND TO A FRIEND Share with a friend

No comments