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Good morning. Investors are weighing up recent developments in two different trade wars, while the U.K. ponders who its next leader will be just as U.S. President Donald Trump touches down in London. The weekend also brought a surprise in German politics. Here's what's moving markets.

Trump Town

Donald Trump arrives in London Monday having risked riling milkshake-wielding protestors even further at the weekend by wading in on the Brexit debate once again, backing a no-deal Brexit and touting Nigel Farage as a suitable negotiator. Meanwhile, a meeting with Prime Minister Theresa May, in her last week in the job, may be used to build support for putting further pressure on the Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.

Beautiful Word

Trump's weekend musings weren't limited to Brexit, he also kept up his hawkish rhetoric against Mexico following last week's tariff announcement. He called the Latin American nation an "abuser" in a Twitter posting and added that "TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed!" Meanwhile, the president's other trade war adversary, Beijing, warned Sunday that it won't be forced into concessions by the U.S.'s pressure tactics. 

Cautious Markets

Asia stocks slipped and futures in Europe looked to continue Friday's tariff war-driven decline, with economists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warning that the episode could lead to a recession. Elsewhere, the pound edged up as Tory leadership candidates laid out their views on Brexit (Check out this cool graphic on the pound's journey under May). There was also early M&A news Monday as chipmaker Infineon Technologies AG was said to near a deal to acquire U.S. firm Cypress Semiconductor Corp.

Surprise in Berlin

The latest sign of uncertainty in European politics came as Andrea Nahles, The leader of Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner, stepped down in a surprise move that puts into question the survival of the German government itself. Nahles's Social Democratic Party suffered a devastating defeat in the European Parliament elections last week. Coupled with constant wrangling over Brexit and the Italian budget outlook, investors are unlikely to welcome this fresh instability in Germany. Still, the euro gained overnight.

Coming Up...

Scheduled economic data include Markit manufacturing PMIs from the euro-area, U.K. and U.S. Meanwhile, Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference kicks off today as the tech firm embraces a future in which its other products are no longer so dependent on the iPhone. Oh, and ITV Plc's blockbuster reality show Love Island starts today (you wanted to know, really). 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the weekend: 

And finally, here's what Mark Cudmore is interested in this morning

Sterling could see a powerful short-term rally in the days ahead. Casting around for potential FX havens from the trade war, it's hard to have confidence in any beyond the yen and the Swiss franc. The dollar and the euro both have merits, but also plenty of flaws. Sometimes, the assets that do best in risk aversion are those that are least-loved. Among major currencies, it's hard to find a better such candidate than the pound. To be clear, this isn't an attempt to argue that sterling fundamentals have suddenly improved. The main point in its favor is that there's been no bullish story there for some time. This is about positioning and wealth destruction. If you want a potential catalyst, then perhaps this week's Trump visit to the U.K. will somehow provide it? Or, perhaps this week's set of PMI data, where the U.K. continues to see more resilient readings than much of the rest of the developed world.

Mark Cudmore is a Bloomberg macro strategist and the Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog. Bloomberg Terminal users can follow him there at MLIV <GO>

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