Today's Agenda Right-Wing Populism Still Rising If you enjoyed the right-wing populist surge that led to President Donald Trump and Brexit, then have we got good news for you: It's still going strong. It even got a new electoral shocker to its credit this weekend, when conservative Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison won re-election after basically zero polls suggested that was a possibility. David Fickling and Dan Moss note the result echoes those aforementioned 2016 surprises in the U.S. and U.K., in that wealthy, liberal cities are growing more alienated from economically struggling rural areas. Australia's outcome is one sign of many that right-wing populism is still ascendant around the world, writes Tyler Cowen. In upcoming European Parliament elections, for example, Euroskeptics are poised to win more than a third of the seats, notes Romesh Ratnesar. They're thriving on turbulence and fraying party ties, Romesh writes, trends that aren't going away. The collapse of Austria's coalition government this weekend, after a corruption scandal took down the country's far-right vice-chancellor, is a setback for populists throughout Europe, writes Leonid Bershidsky, fouling plans for a European nationalist coalition. But the Austrian scandal's impact may be limited, Romesh suggests. And a longer-term solution to rising European populism is to directly address its root causes, Bloomberg's editorial board writes, by giving opportunities to the working poor, reforming immigration and becoming more responsive to citizens' needs. Europe's biggest economy, Germany, sure isn't helping matters by insisting on running a budget surplus rather than stimulating the continental economy, writes Melvyn Krauss. Investors seem spooked by European populism, but fine with the likely re-election in India of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But John Micklethwait wonders if investors have reckoned with what a second Modi term would look like. He suggests it would probably be much more nationalist, much scarier for minorities – and less investor-friendly. And Modi's first term wasn't exactly bold on economic reforms anyway, Mihir Sharma notes. But hey, more economic pain leads to more populism. Huawei Attack's Unintended Consequences Speaking of populism, President Trump's trade war is still going strong, as markets sort-of noticed today, in a delayed reaction to his attack on Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co. Trump's moves seem designed to put Huawei out of business, which would go too far and accomplish nothing, Bloomberg's editorial board writes. And as the market reaction hinted today, depriving Huawei of U.S. components would have broad ripple effects that would hurt U.S. companies. There's hope around the world this is all just a negotiating tactic, but you can bet Huawei and China don't share that hope, notes Tim Culpan. They now know they can't rely on Western parts any longer and will spend whatever they need to achieve tech independence, Tim writes. The result could be a "digital iron curtain" dividing the world. It will cost China a lot, Tim notes, but it has the cash and the tolerance for pain. Further Huawei Reading: Trump's attack will make cross-border chip-sector deals difficult. – Alex Webb China's Trade-War Edge Trump, his supporters and some analysts say the U.S. has an edge on China in this war because it has many more imports to target with tariffs. But China has much more than tariffs in its arsenal, and the options market seems increasingly to bet the U.S. will lose, write Myron Scholes and Ash Alankar. And China's history is certainly rich with examples of its ability to resist Western pressure for a long time, notes Michael Schuman, going back to the 18th century and beyond. Unfortunately, some of these examples ended in wars. Further Trade-War Reading: Telltale Charts Bank stress tests have gotten far less stressful under Trump, and that trend looks to continue, writes Mark Whitehouse. In a seeming triumph of karma, a payday lender is being forced to pay through the nose to borrow money, writes Brian Chappatta. Further Reading New Jersey and New York are right to stall marijuana legalization until we better understand its risks. – Bloomberg's editorial board We can't have a unified European banking system if Germany is nationalistic about its banks. – Ferdinando Giugliano The era of big bank fines is coming to a close. Now we'll see closer scrutiny of bankers' personal misconduct. – Elisa Martinuzzi FCC approval is a big step toward a Sprint Corp.-T-Mobile US Inc. merger; but the Justice Department might have other ideas, as the merger may hurt consumers. – Tara Lachapelle Tesla Inc. shares fell below $200 today as the company succumbs, a la "Game of Thrones," to a sped-up plot that pleases nobody. – Liam Denning We're fighting terrorism all wrong, says Farah Pandith. – Tobin Harshaw Neil Gorsuch cast a surprising vote for justice for Native Americans. – Noah Feldman ICYMI The kilogram has been redefined. Millennials and Gen Z are pessimistic about life. Area billionaire promises to pay off entire graduating class's student debt. Kickers Generic drugs may not be as safe or effective as you think. No, the Voynich Manuscript has still not been cracked. How much of the "Game of Thrones" finale was George R. R. Martin's? Five "Game of Thrones" spin-offs set up by the finale. Note: Please send kilos and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
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