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Devastating consequences

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

The Trump administration's Huawei ban opens a new front with China. U.S. equities extended their rally for a third day, with Asia stocks poised to follow. And the EU fined five banks for colluding on currency trading strategies. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Trump's New China Front

The Trump administration is pulling out the big guns in its push to slow China's rise, with potentially devastating consequences for the rest of the world. The White House initiated a two-pronged assault on China: barring companies deemed a national security threat from selling to the U.S., and threatening to blacklist Huawei from buying essential components. China's embassy was informed of the move in advance, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told Bloomberg TV. The company said it will seek remedies, after Beijing pledged to protect its corporate interests and respond if the Trump administration carries through on plans to expand tariffs. China responded with the formal arrest of two detained Canadians. Here's our QuickTake on how Huawei became a government target.

Stocks Rally, Baidu Bombs

Asian equity futures are pointing mostly higher after U.S. stocks rose for a third day as investors shifted focus to strong earnings from Walmart and Cisco, which muted concerns about the trade war.  Oil spiked on Iran concerns, while gold slumped. The rally left Baidu behind after the online search company posted a loss for the first time since going public in 2005. Shares dropped after trading closed in New York.

Widespread Woes

Damage from the trade war will be global and the fallout may be hard to avoid because the Trump administration resents Beijing's growing power, said former Goldman Sachs Economist Jim O'Neill. Chinese growth could tumble, debt may surge and foreign firms might flee. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and UBS say expansion could slow below 6% for the first time in almost three decades. Companies are already struggling to adjust to the ever-changing landscape.

A Warning From The House

Trump said he hopes the U.S. doesn't go to war with Iran as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned him against doing so without congressional approval. The Iranian foreign minister said his country isn't seeking a conflict but will defend its interests. Crude hit a two-week high after Saudi Arabia accused Tehran of aiding this week's oil facilities attacks.   

Big Banks, Big Fines

Citi, JPMorgan, Barclays, RBS and Mitsubishi UFJ were fined a total of 1.07 billion euros ($1.2 billion) by the EU for colluding on FX trading strategies in online chatrooms. Citi will pay the most at 310.8 million euros. UBS escaped a fine because it was the first to fess up. While relatively large, the cartel fines are lower than a 1.3 billion-euro penalty slapped on banks for rigging Euribor rates. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Cormac's interested in this morning

With the U.S.-China trade war unexpectedly re-ignited, strategists are rushing to come up with ways for investors to limit the potential damage to their portfolios. For Societe Generale, it is the "bluest of the blue chip" global stocks that are most at risk. The Dow Jones Global Titans Index, a gauge of the world's 50 largest multinational companies, has been outperforming the broader market, beating the MSCI AC World Index by 7.5 percentage points over the last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That could make those equities ripe for some profit taking.

The Titans are all part of the global flows of trade, whereas baskets of domestic companies appear less at risk. That's the rationale behind the SocGen strategists' thinking. They are certainly targeting the right area. Figures last month showed global trade suffered its biggest drop since 2009 in the three months through January, down 1.8% on the previous period. On a year-on-year basis, trade posted its first decline in nine years. All before the latest escalation in tensions.

Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News.

 

Even before Trump's trade war, China was the world's biggest story. It's reshaping the global economy — but its ascent hasn't come without major problems. Sign up to get Next China, a weekly dispatch on where the country stands now and where it's headed next.

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