US satellites observe North Korea moving missiles into position, Mattis warns of high alert

GUAM residents received a nasty jolt after two radio stations accidentally issued emergency warnings to indicate an imminent threat or attack, at a time when the US territory is already on edge over North Korean threats to fire missiles into nearby waters.

Several concerned listeners were reported to have called police after the stations triggered the Emergency Alert Broadcast System, issuing “a civil danger” warning at 12:25 am today, local time that was later confirmed to be a mistake.

North Korea had said it would finalise plans by mid-August on whether to fire missiles at Guam in response to “fire and fury” threats from US President Donald Trump.

But Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Tuesday reported that Kim had examined the plans but made no move towards an immediate strike.

“Residents and visitors are reminded to remain calm,” said Guam’s homeland security adviser George Charfauros.

“There is no change in threat level, we continue business as usual.” Homeland Security confirmed in a statement that the “unauthorised test was not connected to any emergency, threat or warning” and it was working with the radio stations “to ensure the human error will not occur again”.

Kim on Tuesday hinted he would hold off on the missile strike, saying he would “watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot”.

KIM’S SECRET MESSAGE

KIM Jong-un may have hidden a secret message to the United States in his blustering boast that he is now ready to lob missiles at Guam. But can President Trump understand it?

This morning North Korean media stated Kim had been briefed by his Missile Command on completed plans to test launch missiles and ‘bracket’ the US Pacific territory of Guam.

But Kim stated he would watch the “foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees” a little more before deciding whether to give an order for the missile test.

The US has stated any missiles lobbed toward Guam would be seen as a deeply provocative act.

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the United States would “take out” any such missile and declared such a launch could lead to war.

Kim’s comments, however, come with an almost hidden tone of moderation.

He appears to hold out the offer to defuse the growing crisis — if the United States made a conciliatory gesture.

“The US Imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket ... (but) he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot,” the Pyongyang statement reads.

Dr Genevieve Hohnen, Lecturer in Politics at Edith Cowan University, says this quote holds a clear — if buried — olive branch.

It appears to signal a path to defuse the crisis by saying Kim would watch any US behaviour before giving the order to fire.

“We know what to expect from Kim. This isn’t the kind of statement that would be interpreted as aggressive — despite all the aggressive rhetoric. The fact Kim Jong-un says he will respond only if the US does not de-escalate the situation is significant.”

But the question is whether or not everybody who needs to understand that, understands that.

“The problem is that Kim Jon-un is largely the same personality type as Trump — both are paranoid, narcissistic and have huge egos,” Dr Hohnen says. “We’ve never really had leaders like that on both sides before.

“The unknown factor in this is not Kim, it’s Trump. Kim Jong-un is acting as we expect him to behave.”

“We’ve actually been expecting something like this,” she says. “Today’s quite an important day in North Korea (celebrations marking the liberation of Korea at the end of World War II). The North Koreans usually do something in terms of military development to coincide with such events.”

DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

Officials have told US media that satellites have observed DPRK mobile missile launcher movement, indicating an intermediate-ballistic missile may be being prepared as part of North Korea’s holiday celebrations.

The move comes as the United States and South Korea plan to start annual defensive military drills that the North asserts are a severe provocation and a possible preparation for invasion.

But South Kora’s Yonhap News Agency says President Moon told a gathering he will prevent war in Korea “at all costs”.

No US military action on the troubled peninsula was possible without Seoul’s consent, he said.

US President Donald Trump, who today returned to his residence in New York for the first time since becoming President in January, has phoned regional leaders — including Japan’s Shinzo Abe.

“We agreed that Japan, the U.S. and South Korea will coordinate closely, cooperating with Russia, China and other members of the international community to, above all else, prevent North Korea from launching missiles,” Mr Abe said about the call with President Trump.

US Secretary of Defence James Mattis warned any further escalation could rapidly lead to war: “Yes that means for a lot of young troops they’re going to be in a wartime situation.”
President Kim Jong-un being presented with plans to launch ballistic missiles towards the US territory of Guam. The map in front of him details the flight path of a missile over southern Japan, while the photo on the back wall shows Guam’s Andersen Air Force Base. Picture: KCNA

President Kim Jong-un being presented with plans to launch ballistic missiles towards the US territory of Guam. The map in front of him details the flight path of a missile over southern Japan, while the photo on the back wall shows Guam’s Andersen Air Force Base. Picture: KCNASource:Supplied

‘DELIGHTFUL HISTORIC MOMENT’

Pyongyang’s state media has this morning reported President Kim Jong-un as “praising” his Strategic Force for drawing up a “careful” plan for a “power demonstration” to “envelop” Guam in fire.

“The nuclear force of the DPRK is strong in its guts and no one can guess its muscle as the flight trajectory of medium-to-long ballistic rocket Hwasong-12, firing data and the correct hitting-point are made public at home and abroad.”

Kim said he would “watch a little more” Washington’s behaviour, but he will make an “important” decision if the US continues its “extremely dangerous reckless actions”.

“The US Imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket ... (but) he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot,” the report says.

“If the planned fire of our demonstration is carried out as the US is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”

The missile being prepared may be a Hwasong HS-12. Such intermediate missiles do not have the capacity to reach the mainland United States, but can reach the US military bases of Guam and Japan.
This North Korean supplied image purports to show Kim Jong-un being briefed at the KPA Strategic Force HQ on plans to launch ballistic missiles towards the US territory of Guam.

This North Korean supplied image purports to show Kim Jong-un being briefed at the KPA Strategic Force HQ on plans to launch ballistic missiles towards the US territory of Guam.Source:Supplied

‘WARTIME SITUATION’

Mattis told reporters in Washington this morning the situation could escalate to war “very quickly”.

He said it could be assessed “within moments” if a missile fired from North Korea was on track to hit Guam.

The United States would “take out” any seen to be heading for American soil.
Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un: the war of words between the United States and North Korea continues to escalate.

Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un: the war of words between the United States and North Korea continues to escalate.Source:Supplied

DELVE DEEPER: What would a war with North Korea look like?

If missiles were fired at US bases: “I think if they fire at the US it could escalate to war very quickly ... Yes, that’s called war, if they shoot at us.”

He added: “If they shoot at the United States, I’m assuming they hit the United States. If they do that, it’s game on.”

North Korea’s has today repeated previous assertions that its plan was to fire missiles to land in the ocean around Guam, not at Guam itself. The US has stated this would be an unacceptable provocation.

Mattis was asked what response the US would give to such a ‘near miss’: “You can’t make all those kinds of decisions in advance,” he said. “There’s a host of things going on. There’s allies that we consult with ... I need a certain amount of ambiguity on this.”

Mattis’s comments came after he and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson wrote in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal that America has “no interest” in regime change in Pyongyang or the accelerated reunification of the two Koreas, and stressed the importance of a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

HOLIDAY SPECTACLE?

Today is a public holiday in North Korea (Liberation of the Fatherland Day — marking the end of World War II). Previous missile launches have been timed to coincide with such calendar events to maximise internal propaganda impact.
A propaganda poster is displayed during a rally in support of North Korea's stance against the US, on Kim Il-Sung square in Pyongyang on August 9. Picture: AFP

A propaganda poster is displayed during a rally in support of North Korea's stance against the US, on Kim Il-Sung square in Pyongyang on August 9. Picture: AFPSource:AFP

RELATED: How North Korea’s nukes work

Another DPRK statement this morning attacked planned US-South Korea “Freedom Guardian” military drills scheduled for August 21.

“No matter what rhetoric they let out about “annual, regular and defensive drills”, they cannot cover up the danger of a war outbreak,” the statement says.

“If any accidental case would be sparked, though unwanted, it would never avert a war. What matters is that when a second Korean War breaks out, it would be a nuclear war.”

INTERNATIONAL CONCERN

The European Union’s foreign policy chief has called for “peaceful, not military” means to resolve the Korean peninsula crisis, urging Pyongyang to avoid any “further provocative action” that could stoke tensions.

“At such a critical juncture, the European Union supports diplomatic work with our partners aimed at the de-escalation of the situation and achieving the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula through peaceful, not military, means,” Federica Mogherini said in a statement.

The statement was issued after a meeting of a key EU panel which agreed the bloc would reach out to North and South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.

“There is an urgent need for a de-escalation of tensions on the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Mogherini said.

“(...) We therefore call on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to refrain from any further provocative action that can only increase regional and global tensions.”

Source:
http://www.news.com.au/world/missile-alarm-us-satellites-observe-north-korea-moving-missiles-into-position-mattis-warns-of-high-alert/news-story/ff9e0926f948b56c660b718e949993fa

ALL COMMENTS

Zero chance China steps in regardless. Dealing with Korean refugees is way way better than a war with the United States .
You're out of your mind if you don't think they debrief him top to bottom every time he visits.
Your username is very ironic
Your lack of fear calms me. I hope you're right man. Stay safe and happy birthday
You'll need the sleep... If you're going to make it through what's to come.
You'll have water for a while if we get destroyed
you replaced one mother land but not the second
You really want us to drink the water at the back of the toilet huh?
You point a gun at someone and fire to deliberately miss them, you've still committed a crime. Do it to a country with ballistic missiles and there's a pretty clear case for considering it an act of war. This is not random sniper fire across a demilitarized zone. It's a highly provocative act of aggression with ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warfare aimed at a territory that is a US protectorate. The action would be genuinely terrifying for the thousands of American citizens in Guam. The war fighting term for the action is "bracketing fire". It is used as a warning and rangefinding action preceding an actual attack. It would be an unprecedented action and would almost certainly lead to a regional war in the Koreas.
You MUST do something about this situation. There comes a point where the threats go too far.
You just know that there's gonna be people like "Well let's consider the peacful option"
You can't guarantee not detonating it, but by smashing through the entire missile, you can stop it from detonating properly. I can't speak to nukes themselves, but most missiles have to go through their primary explosive detonation to actually cause damage as intended. Whether it be the way the explosive is delivered, or how sensitive the secondary explosive is, causing damage to a missile can interrupt the detonation process. Likely, we'd either try to shred the warhead apart so that it can't be detonated, or destroy the missile itself so the warhead can't reach its target. According to the Navy, an Aegis system anti-ballistic missile can catch up with an ICBM ahead of it and destroy it.
You can tell it's heading in the direction of Guam, but you can't be sure of where it will strike until it is making its decent to its target
You can plot a missile trajectory extremely quickly, if it's landing in the middle of no where then it'd be hard to justify saying they were aiming at Guam or the U.S.
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You can even buy giant plastic containers that for a bathtub if you want to be more hygenic.
You bring up some interesting points that make a lot of sense. It would be one huge humanitarian disaster. That's for sure.
You also haven't developed a parasitic relationship with your neighbor where you've learnt that if you throw shit, you get food, and your neighbor continues to give you food when you start throwing shit because they're worried you'll escalate things and try to burn their house down if they don't respond.
Yes, we're still not that advanced yet.
Yes, just let the North Koreans sell their nuclear technology to the highest bidder, as they've tried before. That'll work out well.
Yes news.com.au is the WORST source of journalism! They have writers who can't spell, use colloquialisms in serious articles, click-bait headlines, and most articles are opinion pieces.
yep... saw a few comments last week that this is usually a test day for them. curious to see trump's response if/when they test into the ocean
Yep, unless you're working with an unusual setup it's the same water that comes out of the tap.
Yeah, I've had a couple instances in my life where I thought that there was a high risk of potential local societal collapse. The NE blackout in the early 2000s, a couple hurricanes. The FIRST thing I do is always to fill my bathtub with water. It could come in great handy for a variety of reasons, not least drinking.
Yeah, it's like shooting an apple off someone's head.
Yeah, but I'm sure he wants to keep that dictator position to keep on going. There's nothing he can do with his military that would allow him to keep that position for himself or his next of kin.
Yeah, but his point was that to test an IBCM defense system, you need to launch an ICBM. As these are easily detectable and there are no unaccounted for launches, the chances of there being a functional, deployed and TESTED system is virtually zero.
Yeah, because that's how Snakes fight! Right up in your face, with fangs and... knives and stuff!
Yeah this season of the Bachelor is getting intense
Yea that would be the big scare, if China decided to get involved militarily on the side of NK. That's the real risk here.
Yea but this time we're all gonna die
Wow....from missiles to faucet eh???
Wow touché. That was a bit of optimism on my part.
Would you like to learn more?
With decoys the enemy is making you suffer before a shot is fired. You pay for the most advanced aerospace technology the world has ever seen, they pay for mylar balloons.
Why?
Why not? Kim is a third-generation dictator, a boy king. That's produced a whole lot of crazy historically.
Why do you think the US will go into North Korea. We got missile that can launch from the sea. If anything, I see China going in and cleaning up shop after the US bombs them.
Who would put their taint in the water?
While Mr. Kim said he had decided not to launch the attack on Guam yet, he advised the U.S. “to take into full account” whether the current standoff was to its benefit. He also said it was incumbent on the U.S. to “stop at once arrogant provocations against the DPRK and unilateral demands and not provoke it any longer,” using an abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the formal name for North Korea.
While I definitely respect Secretary Mattis, I must admit I just giggled at the thought of a guy with the nick name of Mad Dog being the most adult and likely sane person we have in this administration.
While diplomacy is our preferred means of changing North Korea’s course of action, it is backed by military options. The U.S. alliances with South Korea and Japan are strong. But Pyongyang has persistently rebuffed Seoul’s attempts to create conditions whereby peaceful dialogue can occur, and has instead proceeded on its reckless course of threats and provocation. As a result of these dangers, South Korea’s new government is moving forward with the deployment of U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense against the threat. We commend South Korea’s decision to deploy this purely defensive capability.
Where can I learn more?
When was the last time we swiftly defeated anyone?
When the guy named "Mad Dog" is the most rational person in the government...
When Kim Jong Un is descalating a situation, you know the world is fucked.
When going to war with a power like the United States, it is EXPECTED you are going to be bombed from the air. So everyone knew the US had SOMETHING to bomb with, and the US had effective older bombers they could use, and it was assumed they would use them. That's where the effectiveness of keeping something secret comes from, you have to have something else which already does a pretty damn good job, so that the enemy plans around THAT and not what you are actually going to use.
What's NK's end game here? If they were to attack the USA do they really think they'll stand a chance of surviving the fight?
Whatever that means.
What if the biggest secret is simply in how good the simulations are those days?
What exactly is to come?
What do you think a spy does?
We've sat around and twittled our thumbs for too long. Now look where we are. Should we just keep sanctioning while NK keeps developing? Probably not.
We've been Boned!
Well, with a small 1-4 missile strike that NK might be able to do in case of a war, it should be enough.
Well people knew about it well before that, it had been operating since '83 and "went public" in '88. Before it was officially declared there was lots of talk about the new "Stealth Fighter", too. Books were written, posters were sold, Trapper Keepers were adorned and computer games were made. No one knew what it really looked like though so it was all conceptual design. Most cooler looking than the real thing, none stealthy at all.
Well one reason to keep it a secret is that MAD requires both sides being vulnerable. If it turns out the US is no longer susceptible to nuclear attack, then that could be very destabilising.
well NK missiles aren't exactly well known for their accuracy. even aiming "near" Guam could be extremely dangerous and if you only have a small window at the beginning of the launch to intercept and do something about it that leaves little room to calculate to see where its actually going.
Well it's water, held in a ceramic container with rubber and metal bits floating inside. If it sits for a long time it will get funky, but yes, it's perfectly safe. Poop doesn't go up inside the tank or anything.
Well at least one positive comes out of this.
We'd still look at a huge number of casualties if something happens, and that subway is far from going all around the entire Seoul area. NK missile/nuclear capabilities are definitely limited, but they have artillery pieces all around that border, pointed all over Seoul area and other cities in range. With more than 20m South Korean people within range.
We will likely strike back for an attempted attack on the US.
We urge all nations to honor their commitments to enforce U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea and to increase diplomatic, economic and political pressure on the regime, specifically through the abandonment of trade, which finances the development of ballistic and nuclear weapons. The U.S. continues to consolidate international unity on the North Korean issue through increased engagement at the U.N., at regional diplomatic forums, and in capitals around the world.
We tried.
We launch missiles near his castle. Or wherever the fuck this cartoon villain lives.
We have Aegis warships all over the Pacific and Patriots all over South Korea and Japan.
We don't need to know where it will land. If it goes anywhere near one of these two anti-missile systems - barring any faults in those systems - it's getting shot down. Mattis, however, seems to be speaking to the point that even the attempt is a provocation of war.
We also have a massive amount of active troops stationed in both locations.
Wait... I'm supposed to clean the faucet aerator? Dear god, I feel sick
Wait, I'm the war manual.
Very useful and informative with the paywall.
Valve: "We make games?"
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Urg, Murdoch is a scummy bastard even when you get outside of his political opinions. The News of the World phone hacking is enough to make that clear.
Un's grandfather oversaw 11 tests. Un's father over saw about 44. Un has over seen 86.
Unless...they're testing them on the SECRET BASE ON THE FAR SIDE OF THE MOON and then just recallibrating the weapons for earth's gravity and atmosphere once they install them here.
Unfortunately, Trump would probably not see the strategic importance of that and would just think we're giving away something valuable in exchange for nothing. He's already said that we "should have kept the oil" after invading Iraq. Plus he wants Europe to pay for NATO and Mexico to pay for a border wall.
Unfortunately, it's impossible to predict the track of an ICBM that closely. If we see a rocket headed that way, we have to assume the worst, and respond accordingly.
Two questions, what is a faucet aerator and how do I wipe it?
Turkey isn't I the north Atlantic, either. Article 5 still applies. The decision is ultimately political: I have zero doubt that NATO allies would back America if NK starts shooting nukes or ICBMs.
Try telling that to the millions of North Koreans that had no say in their government's actions. Oh you can't, I don't see them bitching about how bad their lives are on social media for you to drop them a line.
Try 8 dragons versus a teepee of elderly wildlings
Trump or not. You blow up Guam, it's go time. Can't get much further past the red line then dead Americans.
Trump is unlikely to use nukes on NK. They might launch a few nukes at us but we don't need anything other than conventional weapons to take them out, an we wouldn't want to use any because South Korea will want it's land back.
totally prepared in case Undertaker throws Mankind off that steel cage.
Too late to vote now, There's no getting off of Mr.Bones Wild Ride.
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To look like his popular Grandfather who is pretty much their George Washington.
To get into the regime you do so through family ties or long-time service. It's hard to place an agent there, I imagine they'd likely have to flip someone already in the hierarchy.
To be fair, Valve also forgot Valve was a thing
TIL don't trust water, it is wet longer than anything else and therefore filled with bacteria.
Those of us who are not so easily defined sit here completely flabbergasted at the idiocy of it all.
This would not be so unstable if NK was something like a part of Russia or China, and if the nuclear weapons in NK were understood to be nominally in Russian or Chinese hands, with the further understanding that the missiles are physically there but are backed up by the main strategic nuclear forces of Russia and/or China, but they're not!
this time
This thread and the Charlottesville one has convinced me that I no longer want to use Reddit at all as a news source. I'm going to just sit in the NFL sub now.
This sub has the biggest hardon for war with NK it's fucking insane.
This is really funny but also this situation is really sad.. truly comedy and tragedy
This is not good. I posted on Facebook that I would eat dog shit and stream it live if North Korea launched a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States.
This is like having an asshole neighbor who dry fires his rifle at you from his backyard.
This is exactly the kind of sensationalized bullshit that actually scares the public and moves us closer to war. Dishonest journalism. Terrible article. It reads like a high school burn piece. Just read the title and then look at the splash image right below it. It looks like the cover of a Tom Clancy movie. Fucking ridiculous.
This is basically him trying to get out of all his big talk. He'll say he's gonna keep watch and then he'll just try to slowly back away. He may be an idiot but he isn't suicidal.
This is basically a way to ensure their terrible system survives. They can keep torturing, milling, starving, and depriving their citizens without intervention as long as they have nukes.
This is an official department of defence outline of the US ABM capabiities. Note how the GMD is the ONLY system capable of targeting ICBMs.
This idea that China or Russia will tolerate a US presence in North Korea with no response is a fantasy, after Kim is gone will not be the end of it, there will be a very well armed insurgency.
This guy
This ain't civ, why would the US want to build bases on NK lands? We have SK, Japan and Guam for that. Not to mention random islands in the pacific.
They're not going to do shit, and I'm not sure how people keep falling for it.
They wouldn't 'get away with it'. If it was fired towards Guam, two outcomes are possible.
They won't at this time, they signed a defensive pact 50+ years ago that renews at 20 year intervals. Keeping your word is important in international diplomacy, so I don't expect anything right now
They will arm Guerillas to keep that from happening.
They need a Snickers.
They know they wont. I think it's more of a propaganda machine. They can't be that crazy to go on a suicide war
They have, what, 30 or so missiles? Most of those aren't long range IIRC - not only that but since they're running off of what is essentially 1960s technology, they're unlikely to have effective countermeasures. So, not only would a huge portion of their missiles be shot down, but we would level them almost immediately. We have satellites, we know where their military bases are. I would even go so far as to say that SK isn't in too much danger from nukes. The biggest threat to them is from North Korea's artillery. Seoul is within range of NK's artillery and could be destroyed pretty quick. That being said, we would more than likely begin a counter attack within a few hours if NK began attacking. I'm not very worried about NK, or even China. China has even said that if NK attacks first, they will let us handle it. Even if China does try to intervene, they aren't going to launch nukes at anybody. We're their biggest trade partner and wiping us out would devastate them financially as well as physically(MAD). And they know that.
They don't think they would survive. That's why there is no chance they will actually attack.
They could get liberated like they've never been liberated before.
They backed out of it. However, Kim said he would change his mind if the "Yankees" act out again.
They already are.
These two children have their little hands on their big red buttons, while the other 7 billion of us just watch and hope they don't screw all our lives up.
There's something ironic about a potential nuclear missile test (and subsequent potential nuclear annihilation) to commemorate a surrender caused partially by a nuclear attack.
There's really no way to conduct this test without it turning ugly. KJU should definitely avoid this test.
There's no reason they'd want it. It's a massive fucking refugee crisis with a bunch of people who have been brainwashed and deprived of information of the outside world. The best case scenario after the fact would have the Korea's unite and all US forces to return south of the 38th once the South's government had security over the north.
There would also be massive amounts of civilian casualties. Seoul is within artillery range of NK, millions of people there including millions from other countries. I'd like to think there is a lot of pressure behind the scenes from China not to do something. If we start seeing Chinese leaving Seoul then we know something is about to go down, but I'd be extremely surprised if there was any kind of warning like that.
There won't be anyone to run an insurgency in NK after either.
There were more nameless people who died in the fight for Liberation, such as the Korean Liberation Army that fought the Japanese Army in Manchuria. They were even trained by the OSS (predecessor to the CIA) to be an important part of the liberation of Korea on August 20th, before the Japs surrendered on the 15th.
There is currently no system in existence capable of reliably intercepting an ICBM out of boost phase. When something is flying from orbit at 20-30 times the speed of sound, the laws of physics tend to get in the way of shooting it down. US currently has 3 systems designed to counter a ballistic missile threat. THAAD, SM-3 and GMD.
There is a classic Yes Minister clip explaining it, and tactics used to stop people from ever actually using their nuclear deterrent.
There have been 8 hours between the two articles... Maybe some serious buttslapping great diplomacy has been lead by Gen. Matthis
Then I started reading and was pleasantly surprised. Thanks for posting this for me, friend.
Then I got the thought that "maybe there are some secret interceptors, which we don't know about", to which I got this very informative reply which, honestly makes this even worse:
Then how the fuck am I going to take my bubble baths, smart guy?
Their entire subway system doubles as a nuclear/chemical bunker. It's not like they haven't considered the possibility of attack.
The world's super powers already have a pretty effective anti-missile defense strategy; both Russia and China could launch a few hundred missiles at the same time, and simply overwhelm any defense by sheer numbers. Combine that with the fact that these powers have had decades to perfect missile technologies, and not much would change in that respect.
The US does superbly against a uniformed military. The gulf war is a good example of that. North Korea's air force is full of older planes that couldn't compete against the older US jets, so the US would knock them all out of the air and then proceed to destroy every military target in the country. Looking at their inventory of fighters, I don't see anything more advanced than what Iraq had in 1990, while the US has since developed and fielded more advanced fighters.
The US does not have something which does a pretty damn good job at stopping missiles, so you want to announce you do as soon as you have it so that you have that shroud to hide future developments.
The U.S. will continue to work with our allies and partners to deepen diplomatic and military cooperation, and to hold nations accountable to their commitments to isolate the regime. That will include rigorous enforcement of sanctions, leaving no North Korean source of revenue untouched. In particular, the U.S. will continue to request Chinese and Russian commitments not to provide the regime with economic lifelines and to persuade it to abandon its dangerous path.
The U.S. is willing to negotiate with Pyongyang. But given the long record of North Korea’s dishonesty in negotiations and repeated violations of international agreements, it is incumbent upon the regime to signal its desire to negotiate in good faith. A sincere indication would be the immediate cessation of its provocative threats, nuclear tests, missile launches and other weapons tests.
The subways are equipped with stations -- like vending machines -- which have gas masks, oxygen bottles, first aid kits, etc. And they're reinforced to withstand a direct nuclear hit.
The situation is pretty straight forward. If best Korea attacks first they lose the game. All their allies bail and the us won't stop until the Kim regime is either dead or hiding for the rest of their lives.
The scary thing is that tinpot dictators look at the chaos and weak presidency here in the US and think it's a great time to pull shit, but their miscalculation is that what a weak US president really needs is a war.
The sanctions don't get fully enforced
The report, published early Tuesday, could help dial back tensions that had spiraled last week following an exchange of threats between North Korea and U.S. President Donald Trump.
The real trick is to watch Dennis Rodman's location. If he visits somewhere not in the US, be on alert.
The people under him call him the Warrior Monk, and if you look into his approach to the wars in the Middle East, you'll see why.
The only media reporting this (41 mins so far) is News Corp. Murdoch has a huge stake in "whatever" news drives the odds closer to disaster.
The object of our peaceful pressure campaign is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. has no interest in regime change or accelerated reunification of Korea. We do not seek an excuse to garrison U.S. troops north of the Demilitarized Zone. We have no desire to inflict harm on the long-suffering North Korean people, who are distinct from the hostile regime in Pyongyang.
the nazi rally where 20 people got run over didnt happen in my country.
The modern implosion design does so with a very carefully calibrated set of shaped explosives. Slamming an interceptor into the nuke will most likely damage the assembly and prevent it from reaching significant explosive yield. If the nuke isn't pulverized by the impact, the conventional explosives might still go off and scatter enriched nuclear material over the target like a dirty bomb, but that's a longer term danger.
The missions we can do with the long range endurance of the B1s, B2s, and their crews coupled with our aerial refueling capabilities are crazy.
The media has hyped it up too much, they aren't going to attack. That would be suicide. They are making a display of force. We should worry mor about our own president acting on these empty threats than NK actually attacking us.
The legality is set but pulling the trigger on NK is a different matter. With this administration, I'm not sure Mattis would be giving the sole authority to launch a counter-strike without presidential approval.
The Gulf War.
The GMD is our best bet if it's mid range and already in space (like you said). However, the GMD interceptors have infamously failed at shooting our own tests six out of nine times (I forgot the exact number, but the around that number).
The fucked up thing here is, after all this talk, we really couldn't afford to let them shoot near another country/state/base. You can't exactly tell if it's going to be near or actually hit until it gets too close to react. It's one of those things that I could see us reacting too even if it's just a launch "near" Guam.
The Fairfax ones - SMH, the Age and Canberra Times - are good quality, but their journalism is counterbalanced with a healthy dose of clickbait shit.
The fact that this even needed to be said is disappointing. I guess OP is just dense.
The entire video is good, and it's fairly recent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXo-Vov_98Y
The downside is they'd consider it totally acceptable to intentionally send units on suicide runs in order to achieve their overall goal.
The current US experimental system actually got a public list of tests:
The biggest news right now in Korea is contaminated egg story.... So I don't know if this new.com.au has any merit or not.
The amount of brainwashing going on is insane
The "T" in THAAD stands for "terminal" since that's the phase they target. A missile isn't gonna get shot down during boost, basically because a kinetic weapon just isn't gonna catch it. They track and wait for re-entry and smack into it. Also, THAAD is 100% successful since 2005.
That's why everyone keeps an ample length of breathing tube in their fire prep kit next to their toilet. Better to be safe than sorry.
That's what gets me. If NK just so much as launched a missile near Guam or a US ally, the US would have to start launching interceptors but AFAIK each individual interceptor has a success probability <50%. So the idea then is to send multiple interceptors per missile. God forbid if NK launches multiple missiles.
That's the situation we're in now. The current political wisdom is to do nothing, just use words and try not to provoke North Korea.
That's the problem. The best chance to intercept a missile is in the early stages of deployment. I'm no expert either, but I presume it will be practically impossible to tell whether or not the missile will actually hit its target (assuming Guam is the target) until the later stages, by which time it will be nearly impossible to intercept. If NK launches and it even looks like its heading for the US, the US needs to respond almost immediately by intercepting the missiles.
That's the main reason why a "preemptive strike" against NK is extremely risky, that's literally putting at risk the lives of millions of South Koreans.
That's the best case scenario for everyone involved, really.
That's not to say that they do have the capability, only that your last point is flawed
That's how it would work in any administration. The SecDef can't just work unilaterally.
That's because Best Korea is heaven. What do they have to bitch about?
That's basically the backstory of D.Va, lol.
That'd be difficult, I'm not from the United States.
That...That seems like an oversight...Given the history and all...
that would be a great movie or book
That was the Bachelorette! The Bachelor in Paradise is all new tonight or so my girlfriend tells me
That sounds like the best way to handle it if somehow the US is forced to go to war with NK.
That is what the last three Presidents have done. The scenario we have now is exactly the scenario that people were warning about 20 years ago. Back then, everyone laughed and said there was no way that North Korea would ever be a problem. Hell, even when Bush Jr. lumped them into the three top greatest threats in the world, everyone laughed it off. Then just like Clinton before him and Obama after him, he just pushed the problem forward. I haven't been hearing that much laughter recently.
That is NK's endgame: food. It needs it, badly. If it opens up, requests aid and admits crisis then it is just asking to crumble and be reunified by SK. I think we can all agree that would be a good thing, but unfortunately the ruling elite enjoys being the ruling elite and the people are too weak and/or unorganized and suppressed and/or brainwashed that they can't do anything about it.
That is an offensive weapon. The statement was regarding defensive weapons.
That heavily depends what is on the top of the missiles Kim fires.
That egg story sounds fascinating.
Thanks for the good calcium Mr. Skeltal
Thanks for the advice, although I'd rather just die
Thanks for sharing!
Thank you. That's really fucking cool
Thank you, god bless.
Thank you for the history lesson; happy independence day!
Thank fucking christ we have Mattis. He's the only adult in this entire administration, notice how he didn't do any dick waving? "You attack us, we're at war, end of story." No bragging, no taunting, no reassurance to the public of how big OUR dicks are compared to theirs, just flat information.
Tell me more about this bunker.
Survival Tip #1 Tunnel Snakes Rule
Starcraft remastered was released today. If there was ever a point where South Korea was most vulnerable, it is now.
Speaking of which, I got a legendary fat man. I'm all like, "awesome, don't see those often."
Spain, Portugal, France, and UK will not help for sure. The whole reason it says North Atlantic only is because US didn't want to help their allies maintain their colonial interests, not only it didn't help it actively undermined them.
South Korea knows well enough any sort of reunification would be parallels with another US in Iraq, but next door to them. The problem at hand is that their nuclear arsenal is reaching a level that becomes a threat to most of the world. The consequences of letting them continue to build and test more nuclear bombs is they will inevitably become a sustainable threat that isn't just lackluster taunts. The overwhelming fear in leaders is a assassination. Then the next 'great leader' is 10x as crazy and genuinely believes the propaganda they try so hard to enforce. There's no winning in this situation. Do you bite the bullet and try to resolve it before it becomes a problem, or do you just swipe it under the carpet for tomorrow?
South Korea has had a long time to anticipate that one of these Kim nutjobs will go too far and kick the hornet's nest.
Sounds like a way to play it safe while maintaining his propaganda image; They can just pretend that they're being "merciful" while really just avoiding provocation altogether.
sorry not sorry
Something to keep in mind about any North Korean missile aimed at Guam. . .it doesn't necessarily have to be an ICBM. Guam is only 2000 miles away from North Korea, they could hit it with one of their IRBMs (Hwasong 10 and 13, or the Pukguksong-2). I don't see them using an ICBM on Guam, especially if there's accuracy issues. It's a hell of a lot harder to hit an island than a giant friggin continent.
Something has to be done eventually. 20 years ago people had the wait and see attitude and they went on to develop nuclear weapons. 10 years ago that continued and they developed multiple nuclear weapons. Today they're working toward being able to launch them and developing their striking range.
Some of us are already living in that world my dude ??
So, to say that Koreans, both North and South, are taking credit for something they did little about is completely false and bullshit. Even though the war was ended by the two atom bombs dropped by the US, we Koreans still celebrate the end of oppressive colonial rule in Korea, mourn the losses of the thousands of people who suffered and died under the Japanese rule, and commemorate the brave martyrs that fought and sacrificed themselves for the liberation of Korea.
So, normally, I'd say this: Mathis IS somewhat of a voice of reason. But what he's really saying is not as drastic as it sounds. He's saying that 'it could escalate to war very quickly' because that's what happens if someone hits a US territory with a ballistic missile in the vast majority of plausibly non-accidental situations. And he's saying that publicly as a warning to NK--as in, if you actually strike a US territory, Fire and Fury would follow. Reading between the lines a bit, I'd say his position is along the lines of 'if you fire s missile into the waters near Guam there will be consequences, it if you hit an actual target of importance to the US we're ready to fuck your shit up in an unprecedented fashion'.
So, if the demonstration NK intends to do is to throw a missile at Guam, to get us to behave in accordance with their wishes, they are effectively deterring us. But for such a small country, we cannot afford to be deterred. It would tell every small country that resists becoming polarized with the USA, China, Russia or some other major power that MAD logic is keeping safe, that they can get nuclear weapons and pursue a goal on their own without fitting into the imperfect nuclear state world order.
So you have clean drinking water. Assuming radiation doesn't leak in.
So yeah. That was longer than I expected. Sorry.
So this is unstable. We're not going to risk losing a city the size of Los Angeles (18 million people) over the lives of the people of NK (25 million). This can't go on. At some point NK will misjudge the situation, and get nuked.
So they will do a major exercise of some sort. Perhaps launching multiple (empty-shell) rockets towards the Sea of Japan.
So is he trying to make Americans panic?
So if he fires into the sea near Guam I'd say it's over.
So I'd say another question we have to ask ourselves is, in which phase of flight will the missile be intercepted? If the US waits until we can determine the exact landing location it might be too late to shoot it down.
so how long till it gets dark there
so did Valve
Simply put: US ABM is the best in the world yet it still ain't shit and would struggle to intercept even the most primitive and small scale ICBM attack.
Shit, i used to drink out of the hose on the side of my house. I think I'll be ok.
Shade
Seriously, how did they not see that opportunity?
serious what is his haircut end game
SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided not to launch a threatened missile attack on Guam, Pyongyang’s state media reported on Tuesday, but warned that he could change his mind “if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions.”
SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided not to launch a threatened missile attack on Guam, Pyongyang’s state media reported on Tuesday, but warned that he could change
seinfeld theme
Say they launch at Guam or mainland but miss horribly in the ocean hundreds of miles off. What would be the appropriate response?
Salami tactics.
Russia also has a border with North Korea which is very close to the home of the Russian pacific fleet, Vladivostok, they will not tolerate US bases in North Korea lying down.
Rule 3 has no borders
Right now we have the same logic that people had about hijacking before 9/11: Just cooperate with the hijackers and all will be okay.
Respect intensifies
Remindme! 1 day
Reminder that you can't do shit about any of it so don't let the fear politik get you down or ruin your day
Really weird you mention this. I literally just saw a Sturgis Cops episode where they mentioned how Dennis Rodman was coming through and they were being kept briefed on his location.
Quick question, how quickly could Seoul be evacuated/locked down in case of an emergency.
Probably that theyll decide to do it when our joint drills with SK start later this week
Probably not. The most recent round of sanctions, however, is 1/4 to 1/3 their entire exports. It could be a major difference maker.
Probably another attempt of NK to demonstrate "their power"
Pretty sure everyone knows this is all propaganda for North Korea. If they launch anything close to America, they lose what credibility they have with China. Japan, US, and South Korea would respond with moral authority.
Pretty sure anywhere but international waters is an attack.
Please, tell your friends all over reddit. I'm fucking baffled that the dolts on this website actually think Trump has any fault in this particular issue.
Please vote? For what? Another president that'll appease the bastard? I'm not saying we need a nuclear war, or that Trump is fit to take care of NK, but we don't need another president to just put this off. I believe Mattis will advise and preform appropriately, he is the most well put together and competent in this administration.
Please vote.
Please stop spreading this rumor. Most artillery can only reach the northern fringes of Seoul proper. So Ilsan, Paju, Uijeongbu as well as the likes of Nowon-gu are in range. But central and southern Seoul, as well as much of Gyeonggi-do (Bundang, Anyang, Suwon..) and Incheon are out of rangez. Only the rocket-propelled artillery can reach beyond those northern fringes; and that artillery is of very questionable effectivess (plus it has slow loading times).
Please read the blue clues
Personally I'm okay with spending money on the big, scary shit that keeps MAD intact. That's actually defense related, when you think about it. It's the absurd spending on conventional arms that bugs me, since we don't seem to use them for anything but destabilizing smaller nations. Even so, I'd be the first to admit that I really don't know much about military-geopolitics. Frankly, I doubt that most people outside of the DOD and it's international counterparts actually do, so... Perhaps we're all stupid and all of this stuff is actually necessary.
People've been saying that regarding Korea for the last twenty years
People also aren't figuring that many many of the NK civilians are going to fight to the death as well. It's a Jim Jones / branch davidians style cult
PAC 3 won't do shit to an ICBM. They are meant to intercept short range ballistic missiles like scuds and shoot down aircraft. Aegis on the other hand has a better shot. They've intercepted ICBMs with it before in testing although it isn't a 100% sure thing. I would imagine if there was a real threat they wouldn't just launch one missile to intercept it though. The whole pacific fleet would fire. That ups the odds a bit. There's also THAAD stationed in SK which is also meant for this kind of thing. Ironic the south Koreans had a problem with THAAD a few months ago. Even more so if it ends up saving lives.
Outlets are reporting North Korea has "backed off" their threat with Guam. I'm on mobile so I can't link right now but WSJ is one that is reporting.
Our diplomatic approach is shared by many nations supporting our goals, including China, which has dominant economic leverage over Pyongyang. China is North Korea’s neighbor, sole treaty ally and main commercial partner. Chinese entities are, in one way or another, involved with roughly 90% of North Korean trade. This affords China an unparalleled opportunity to assert its influence with the regime. Recent statements by members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as well as other regional and global voices, have made clear the international community holds one view regarding North Korea’s provocative and dangerous actions: They must stop. Pyongyang must stand down on those actions.
Our diplomatic approach also proceeds through the United Nations. The Security Council’s recent unanimous vote imposes new sanctions on North Korea and underscores the extent to which the regime has chosen to isolate itself from the international community. This vote, which also had Russia’s support, reflects the international will to confront the North Korean regime’s continuing threat to global security and stability.
Our capabilities to intercept an ICBM are still very limited. While we have had some success in the past with tests featuring intermediate-range ballistic missile targets that have approached ICBM speeds, we only recently had our first successful test intercepting and destroying a true ICBM class target. We knew when it was launching, where it was launching from, and the trajectory ahead of time and no decoys were used.
Or you took it out to make a pipe screen when you were a teenager...
Or if your brother in law dropped an upper decker last Easter
Operation alphabet sling
One reason to keep some defenses secret might be to prohibit adversaries from creating weapons or methods of deployment that sidestep our ability to defend against them.
On what basis, though? All physics say massed defense is nearly impossible.
On the surface that makes sense. But the US really doesn't want China to expand their territory, and some (a majority last time I checked) in South Korea still want unification.
On the same day as 9/11 the fourth flight of passengers realized the new reality: no cooperation. You probably can't even save your own lives, but you must not cooperate with hijackers.
Okay so if you get falsely accused of the crime that you didn't commit, then went to jail, but someone bailed you out. Wouldn't you celebrate that?
Nuclear weapons are very fragile and have to detonate in a certain way: the fissile core has to increase in density until it is supercritical and be held in that state for as long as possible, a very difficult task since there is a tremendous amount of energy being released that want to blow the core apart as soon as possible
Now if that knowledge became known, all other nuclear armed countries would race to duplicate the defensive technology to keep MAD intact. As it stands, assuming a country has defensive capabilities, broadcasting it to the world would be bad military strategy.
Nothing is going to happen
Not to boast here, it would be a horrific event for the world. The NK army of 1 million brainwashed starving people equipped with 1950s tech would all certainly fight to the death, and they would get that wish.
not really sure how else you suppose we should respond, whether it was trump, hillary, or bernie in office, if NK launches a missile at our territories, which is inhabited by US citizens and has military bases on it. making jokes about trump's little hands or being a child changes nothing about the reality of the situation. but youd probably still rather make dRumP memes.
Not necessarily. An ordinary space launch vehicle behaves in mostly the same way as a missile, and the military launches plenty of those. I wouldn't put it past them to say that they had a failed satellite launch when they were actually testing an anti-missile system.
Not if I’ve got a fucking bleach tablet in all of my toilet tanks.
Not even an attack on Hawaii would :/
Not at all comparable. They had hundreds of rocket scientists working on that specific case for weeks beforehand and even then they weren't certain that they would succeed. This is a general case where we don't know the specific coordinates and will have to do everything in a couple of minutes by automated systems.
Not a Trump fan and I know that the way he's been handling this is not favorable, but this could have/would have happened regardless of Trump.
Not 24 hours. Our military presence in SK is minimal. Artillery along the border and the constant finding of tunnels (we know we don't find them all) points more towards the likelihood of a repeat of the actions pre-ceasefire.
North Korean state media said in its report Tuesday that Mr. Kim had made his decision not to fire on Guam after visiting a military command post and examining a military plan presented to him by his senior officers.
North Korea, send your best player. let us settle this like men.
North Korea now faces a choice. Take a new path toward peace, prosperity and international acceptance, or continue further down the dead alley of belligerence, poverty and isolation. The U.S. will aspire and work for the former, and will remain vigilant against the latter.
North Korea has officially unzipped it's pants. Ready your anuses for a whole lot of nothing... probably.
North Korea Backs Off Guam Missile-Attack Threat Kim Jong Un warns he could change his mind if the U.S. persists in ‘extremely dangerous reckless actions’
Normally I'd say that the NK will launch some sort of attack to save face while making sure whatever 'attack' they throw won't have any significant risk of pushing the US too far.
Non paywall?
Nobody knew about the F-117 Nighthawk until we were bombing the Iraqis with it and they couldn't shoot back
No0o, it's so you can take cold baths, obviously.
No, this is wrong. And once they've gone too far and nuked Los Angeles, you will realize that sitting around and hoping they will not do something like that was the wrong idea.
No fuck you. If they shoot at us we level their country.
NK's SRBM's and MRBM's can be intercepted by THAAD, Aegis destroyers or even Japan's PAC-3 Patriot interceptors.
NK would be destroyed before anything even hits the west coast, their long distance missiles are questionable at best. You'll have to wait longer for your fallout DLC.
NK will push them back until US forces can arrive en mass to push them back to the far north... where China will enter exactly the same as last time in order to push back.
NK started it anyways. We're kinda of reaching a not much else we can do point.
Nk sits on 6-10 trillion us of untapped valuable minerals. I'm certain China would want North Korea.
NK military would be body-slam wiped out by the USA within 24 hours. Hopefully they realize this.
NK is in an awful state. It's people are starving, the country is essentially barren of life outside of Pyongyang. All food goes to the military. The country needs aid, but it can't ask for it because it wants to maintain the closed relationship with the outside world. So instead, it makes threats and shows of force that will provoke other nations into voluntarily giving it the food and aid it needs, in exchange for say, halting a particular military exercise.
NK is a rhetorically loose cannon, who also does things like torpedo ships, shell islands, etc, and while we wage war games with our allies, that's because we can afford to, and it makes sense to practice to win, because losing to NK would be a disaster. They have a huge army, but probably a poor one. It probably has elements that are elite, and a large amount of conscripts that would fight badly.
NK has to tread carefully here if they have no intention of waging another full scale war. If they want a show of power, they have to do it in a way that cannot be misconstrued as an attack on US or allied territories. Launching a missile to "land near Guam" could very well be misconstrued as an attack.
Nice paywall
Next of kim*
News.com.au is trash
Needless to say, if it targets and strikes US territory, this would prompt a military response.
National Liberation Day of the MotherFatherland. The end of WWII. Dunno which motherland though.
Nah.
Nah, they're gonna go across the 48th where we don't expect it... and push down towards Seattle!
Nah, China would totally be willing to turn NK into a banana republic. It would keep US interests off its border, and settle the region down. Probably even improve their trade in the region given a post Kim regime demilitarization.
Nah that at least doesn't make my anxiety increase at all. Lol
My girlfriend stays wet for quite awhile. Also filled with bacteria.
My birthday is this weekend, I've been asked if I'm worried I won't make it until then a few times. The answer has always been no, North Korea isn't going to do shit. It's like the most dangerous game of "I'm not touching you" I've seen.
Mr. Trump warned Pyongyang last week that the U.S. military was “locked and loaded” and could engulf the North in “fire and fury,” while North Korea, through its state media, had threatened to fire four missiles in a bid to surround the U.S. territory of Guam in “enveloping fire.”
Mr. Mattis is U.S. secretary of defense. Mr. Tillerson is U.S. secretary of state.
Mr. Kim added that the planned launch could still be carried out at any moment, and said that such a strike would be a “most delightful historic moment” that would “wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”
mr. bones, off me
Mr. Bones, I want to get off your wild ride.
More like North Korea better hope.
More like letting them control the anti missile shield with their mouse, 400 APM should be more than enough
Mister bones me
MISTER BONES KILL URSELF
Meanwhile, NK has been on a steady development cycle of nukes and icbms. Imagine doing this again when they can actually reach LA.
Meanwhile in the U.S, IdrA wishes cancer upon his enemies before promptly ragequitting the troop-management overlay, deeming the battle a total loss. South Korean allies are left in a state of bewilderment at the loss of General Grack and his forces.
Means he ain't gonna do shit.
Maybe they just sell more supermodels to China? We can't sanction perfect $100 bill currency..
Maybe in your timezone!
Mattis has already said that if they shoot a missile at the US, he assumes they have hit us, and it is game on. He didn't sound like he was fucking around.
Mattis already has control of the situation; we are currently at war with North Korea. The war was never ended. We just have the ceasefire. If North Korea violates that, it is completely within Mattis' wheelhouse to bring the wrath of God down on them.
Mate, I'm starving but I'm not throwing dogshit over the neighbours fence.
Many rose up against the Japanese colonial rule, the most significant of which was the March 1st Movement, where people rose up in a peaceful protest against the Japs, before they were put down with force. The leader of this movement, a 19 year old girl named Yun Gwansun, was imprisoned and was tortured to death. There were many other martyrs for the cause, such as Yoon Bong Gil, who killed and injured many important Japanese military figures in Shanghai, and Ahn Jung Gun, who killed Ito Hirobumi, a former Prime Minister of Japan.
Man, I don't even know what timeline I'm in anymore. Looking at the recent news, one would think they're in an alternate universe where the Confederates and Nazis won.
Makes sense they would do something tomorrow since it's National Liberation Day of Korea
make him president instead, will you?
MadDog2020
MAD also doesn't apply when your enemy doesn't have enough firepower to completely obliterate you to begin with.
Low key tho, there could be some Zoolander type shit going on there. Dennis rodman is actually a CIA agent sent periodically to check on the state of affairs in NK. I've heard of stranger things happening.
Loser has to play the dota 2 card game for all eternity
Looks like the next 24 hours are gonna be some serious shit.
lol, kim jong un finally realized trump might actually do it if pushed.
Logically, I know something like this has to exist, but the fact that it exists still scares me.
Logically a strategic defence system such as an advanced ABM capable of destroying ICBMs should not and would not be secret once deployed. In the same vein as Dr. Stragelove's "The whole point of a doomsday device is lost if its kept a secret", the effect of a top level BMD would be lost if its existence is hidden. Its primary role is to deter aggression and to factor into the enemy calculation. If anything its better to overstate your ABM capabilities than to understate them. Not disclosing it would invite attack where they might not be one. An attack which the "secret and untested ABM" may not be able to intercept, but may have been able to deter.
Literally no one believed me. Other kids made fun of me, said I was seeing UFOs. No one believed me, except my Dad. He refused to say whether or not he knew anything about it and merely said "That's really interesting. You might be on to something there". Of course he was Chief of Safety at the time and later admitted that an F-117 did make an emergency landing that night. And few years later when it was unveiled to the public I finally was able to put together what I had seen for the first time.
Literally every other article on the subject from the last hour or so is one saying that the "doomsday" threat from NK nukes has been averted for the time being. This is the only one trying to fear-monger, and it's rising up the front page like wildfire.
Like threading a needle
Like NK hasn't been provoking the USA for years.
Like hitting Guam
Like he always does. It's still completely unacceptable behavior and if China truly loosens its stance on protecting NK then I hope action is taken, although I wish someone besides the US was taking that action.
Let's just hope that current U.S. leadership understands that and doesn't overreact to paranoid sabre rattling.
Laser and rail-guns are in development for missile defence roles, but good old laws of physics are making it a very slow and difficult process. If it does exist then it certainly has never been tested simply because all ICBM launches needed for tests are detectable and accounted for. If we know anything about complex systems such as ABM, they never work up until a dozen or so tests into the program. Chances of an untested, fully developed and deployed system that is effective is virtually zero
korean here. don't feel sad for us. we're safe.
Kimmy has backed off of the threat
KCNA: Kim Jong Un is not ruling out a plan to launch missiles towards Guam, but will "watch a little more" the actions of the U.S. ( Will Ripley CNN)
Just wanted to add on, ever since middle defense has been actively pursued in the US (specifically the Clinton and Bush administrations), we've had a lot of tests on our own systems.
Just turn off TV and internet and you won't even know about this stuff, sleep like a baby ;)
Just to add - any effective dirty bomb wouldn't be made from enriched plutonium or uranium. They don't produce very much radiation when sub-critical. That's why we don't worry very much about debris from an intercept.
Just think of all the even cooler shit we could have if NASA had the military's budget.
Just the fact that it comes from the toilet makes me not want to drink it in general.
Just means that all the fighting-age men will be jacked up on Red Bull and ready to fight to get their internet service back
Just look at Spain and Morocco, or France and UK and the Suez Crisis. NATO only applies to Europe.
Just because I kept looking at it for information about who actually did it and people kept on doxxing some innocent guy and trying to create a narrative when all I wanted was information. I'm not from the US so I just wanted facts, I didn't want it to be a political objective and multiple people kept attempting to use it in that way.
Japanese system's, as well as THAAD, are incapable of taking out ICBM's in their booster stage.
I've heard somewhere that the water in the back of the toilet is safe. Any truth to that?
I've got some guns, some loud dogs and
I've brushed a lot of the recent NK news as the usual posturing and nonsense we are used to.
I've been slowly getting my room remodeled and at putting primer in the walks tomorrow. NK better not ruin my plans here squints and points
It's what I hate about trying to have an ear to the floor while things are occurring and what I feel is wrong with reporting right now. Fear spreads and sells. Not sure how you could fix that easily though.
It's unpleasant to even contemplate war, but if war is inevitable, sometimes it's better to have it sooner than later. We may want to avoid hundreds of thousands of casualties right now, but next year we'll be trying to figure out how to avoid millions -- or even tens of millions.
It's times like this where I'm glad I live in an underground Vault.
It's the water that fills the bowl after the flush. It wouldn't be my go to water, but I guess it would do in a pinch.
It's the 15th of August. Anniversary of the Liberation/Independence from Japan.
It's so easy, too. Take a current event, buy upvotes to the front page, post and upvote top level comments telling people how to think about any given subject... and boom, the hivemind latches on. Now it might as well be the truth no matter how skewed.
It's role is a bit different compared to deterrence.
It's right now for them don't forget the timezone difference.
It's not that simple.
its not sabre rattling if they actually launch towards USA
It's not like the B1s fly to Korea everyday. I'm certainly not privy to their schedule but I'd assume they fly maybe a few times a month and go up to Korea once every few months in time with periods of tension or regularly scheduled training such as the upcoming Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills mentioned above. Those start next Monday and if the situation doesn't escalate further today or tomorrow that's where I'd look next to expect a launch.
It's not good news. Although I believe the US would swiftly defeat NK, many many SK citizens will die in the process.
It's not an easy situation and after 15 years in Iraq and Afghanistan it sure as hell isn't a popular idea, but something has to be done before his crazy threats that we laugh at are a reality. I don't think anyone wants troops on the ground but a massive amount of air strikes on military installations is gonna have to happen at some point.
It's not about taking credit, it's about being free from Foreign occupation... Just another name to an independence day.
It's more alarmist bullshit. NK will not launch missiles at us no matter what the President says to them. In fact, even though I disagree with almost everything else he's done, I'm glad he telling Kim to eff off.
It's just past 8am there, so quite a while.
It's just past 8 am for them right now so they've got 16hrs to go if they want to do something on the anniversary.
It's impossible to pinpoint exactly where a warhead will land until far too late. If rockets are launched towards Guam, our response has to be swift and decisive
It's hard to believe SK can penetrate them with agents.
It's far more likely that the US agrees to let China manage NK's new government in exchange for China giving up claims in the South China Sea.
It's been out of control for years, it's just now the power has shifted.
It's as close to a no win situation as you will see in the real world.
It's also pay day for me so these fuckers better chill the fuck out.
It's a way to later back down while saving face.
It's a skyrim reference, right?
It's a moral dilemma for sure. Waiting and doing nothing could mean having a powerful rogue state that keeps making strange/selfish demands. Hold it's neighbours hostage in a sense. What if now is the only window to "fix" NK? I know I'm naive, I don't want death, I just wonder if the "do nothing" strategy will hurt more over time.
It's 13½ hours ahead of E.S.T. there. So as of this minute it is 8:10am, tomorrow.
It'll do.
It'll be like Ender's Game times 30 million.
It works in fallout.
It will be considered an attack on the United States.
It was already starting to get dark so it was hard to make out shapes in the sky, but I was pretty good at triangulating where I should look based on sound. I liked to watch for my Dad returning from TDY and got pretty good at plane spotting, a couple of times I said which flight I thought he was in and he was impressed I was right. What I wasn't good at finding were black shapes I'd never seen in the sky but it was periodically smoking so the trail was easy to follow once I'd found it.
It may not even get near Guam before Japan decides for everyone by shooting it down.
It makes a big difference if "near" refers to a different bearing or a different distance. Different bearing, you know early it'll miss you unless it changes course. If near means close vs far then it can be difficult to tell, because primary radar does not have great altitude resolution.
It has nothing to do with statehood. Article 6 says only attacks on territory in the region of the north Atlantic counts.
It has been estimated that 50% of Russian Nuclear missiles would fail to hit their targets in a nuclear war. NK's capability would be even worse. Assuming 25% of their ~16 weapons get off the ground and aim in the right direction is charitable. At that point we're trying to stop 4. Obviously not a situation you want to be in, but much less of a risk than previously posted.
It ended last week!
It don't think it would. For article 5 you have to also take into consideration article 6 which reads
It doesn't matter to China how a war between North Korea and the USA happens. They aren't going to fight America in defense of North Korea, it would do them absolutely no good.
Isolation and containment is still probably the best strategy. Add more sanctions on Russia for helping NK with their tech. China is now getting sick of NK's shit. With good diplomacy, China may force a regime change without the US or SK needing to get too involved.
Is there anywhere I can read about this a bit more in depth?
Is it just me or has the testing become more common in the past 2-3 years?
International theory like this assumes rational actors
Interesting fact about PAC-3, not only can it shoot down Scuds but apparently it can also shoot down a slow and low flying drone. That sounds stupid but it's actually really impressive that a system designed to shoot down supersonic targets at tens of thousands of feet up can also shoot down something 100 feet off the ground moving at walking speed that is small enough to be considered "stealth" as far as radars are concerned.
Installing Thaad launchers on the Korean Peninsula and conducting joint military exercises are defensive preparations against the acute threat of military actions directed against the U.S., our allies and other nations. China’s demand for the U.S. and South Korea not to deploy Thaad is unrealistic. Technically astute Chinese military officers understand the system poses no danger to their homeland.
In this situation the risk to the US is very low. Not only do we actually have defensive capabilities that could defend against their few weapons and are at no risk of being overwhelmed, but also OP failed to calculate in the likelihood of weapon failure without any defensive deployment.
In the past few months, multiple illegal North Korean ballistic-missile and ICBM tests—coupled with the most recent bellicose language from Pyongyang about striking the U.S., Guam, our allies and our interests in the Asia-Pacific region—have escalated tensions between North Korea and America to levels not experienced since the Korean War.
In the event of the emergency, this is one of the first things you should do. 100 gallons of potable water is good to have before water sources get tainted.
In response, the Trump administration, with the support of the international community, is applying diplomatic and economic pressure on North Korea to achieve the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and a dismantling of the regime’s ballistic-missile programs. We are replacing the failed policy of “strategic patience,” which expedited the North Korean threat, with a new policy of strategic accountability.
In other words, MAD doctrine is not applicable to NK.
In order that however, you need to know more about how it works instead of how effective it is.
In a NK defeat, there would probably be thousands of civilian suicides as well.
Implying hilliary would handle this any differently.
Imho we gave to respond even if it's not headed to mainland Guam, but just the ocean aroujd Guam. As the nunber 1 superpower for decades, the US cannot afford to have NK give us an air bitch slap like that. If they launch and fail in waters near them that might be ok. But a launch headed near Guam basically means they can hit Japan and keep going.
Imagine the failed North Korean missile tests were actually them testing an invisible missile defence system on themselves. They'd be advanced and we'd have no idea.
Imagine NK like a smart, but petulant child. It knows the limits to which it can misbehave and not be punished, and it has learnt that if it just about pushes those limits it will be given food in order to calm down. This is exactly why NK does what it does.
I'm seriously dreading for the Japanese and S Koreans. Stay safe :(
I'm really torn on how I feel about this. I hate seeing so much of the annual budget go towards defense, but damn if I don't love all the cool shit we have.
I'm not terribly concerned still. North Korea is a spec of dust compared to the USA's gigantic military. I don't want war, but I think that the states are fine if NK tries to do anything.
I'm not sure why people are upset at Trump over this specific incident. If someone threatens to launch a missile at us (And I really can't trust NK that it'll just be a 'near miss'), then I'm glad our president is willing to respond violently. It's his job to protect us, and he's doing it here. I'm totally fine with hating him for other stuff, but I'm also pretty on board with the whole 'fire and fury' thing.
I'm not sure where you got your info on the Patriot's capabilities, but during Iraqi Freedom, they had a 100% success rate against tactical missiles, and unfortunately a 100% success rate in friendly fire incidents against F-18's and Tornado's.
I'm not sure China would attack the USA even if the USA attacked NK unprovoked. Neither China or the USA want that fight to happen.
I'm not good at writing out my full fledged thoughts apparently and I made myself sound extremely selfish. I don't just care about the USA. I hope for peace and well being in all of the world.
im not doubting their power, im believing that that will all fizzle out... nobody wants to die
I'm no military or missile expert, but that's really sketchy. For every missile NK "tests" that the US is forced to intercept, NK approaches closer to a breaking point where the payoff for the US to attack missile sites outweighs the success chance of interceptors.
I'm just going to grab a pint and wait for all of this to blow over
I'm gonna be real pissed if I don't get to see who wins the Game of Thrones. Like come back from the dead pissed.
I'm flying back to school this weekend and the first thing I thought was they better not do anything that would prevent me from heading back.
I'm excited for when all the shit becomes unclassified in like 50 years
IIRC they will use the hwasong-12 which is an IRBM, not an ICBM.
IIRC SIOP says that an attack on the US, even a failed one, should be treated as if it was a complete sucess in terms of response.
If you let them get away with firing missles near Guam, then what next? The next middle test they will fire will probably be 'near' California.
IF you hear that some nukes go off or just as a precaution if some missles do go off, fill your bathtub with water and seal up all your windows and doorways leading to exterior with garbage bags. If you have a basement, go there, and wait for help/word of what to do. Google can also give you more advice.
If what you say is true this is terrifying. I thought our missile defense capabilities were far beyond what you outlined.
If we advertise it, they are more liable to engineer a solution.
If they can avoid the fight without looking like they're abandoning an ally, they will.
If the us strikes first they lose out on the world stage which would mean gigantic economic and social losses.
If that's what the launch was dependent on I'd guess that they probably expect us to cancel them today and if we don't they launch today.
If South Korea had an RTS overlay for actual military units then they could have the best people managing their troops.
If NK launched nuclear missiles the reaction would most likely be convential weapons targeting NK power centers and a complete blockade of the country.
If NK fires near guam we'll have no choice but to respond with deadly force.
If NK fires into the sea "near" Guam...how close does it realistically have to be to convince China that it was an offensive maneuver?
If Kim starts shit, NK will be on its own.
If James Mattis says something, we ought to listen- he's one of the smartest people in the government
If it's aimed at Guam then changes courses by its guidance system (unlikely) I imagine the U.S. will have already shot whatever counters they have.
If it is shot down, there is no way to prove that it wasn't fired as a direct attack, this would prompt a military response.
If it gets through defenses and impacts the sea without causing damage, it is a fait accompli that demonstrates the capability to strike at will despite the missile defense systems in place. This would be unacceptable and probably prompt a military response.
If I tell you the US could intercept 80 percent of ICBM's fired with our newest defense system, you would have no way to know how to side step it, because you ONLY know that it is 80 percent effective.
If I shoot you but miss, would you treat it as if I had hit?
If I ever actually heard a news report about a nuke detonation, I'd probably grab a bottle of strong whiskey and a pistol. Drink until the all clear, or have the ultimate "fuck this shit" at the ready in case I heard of a detonation nearby via emergency broadcast.
If an incoming ICBM reaches post-boost phase, we are fucked.
If a nuclear warhead is on one of those missiles China and Russia are not going to do anything. No one in history has ever seen a war like the one that will follow after that.
Id imagine the extent of our missile defence capability isn't publically known
ICMB interception is not an easy task. (taken from another thread)
ICBMs move very fast. Our Minuteman IIIs have a top speed of 15,000 mph. They can strike a target within about 30 minutes from more than 6,000 miles away. As they drop stages they become lighter and progressively faster.
I wouldn't want to be Mattis at all.
I worry that the US will attempt to call it a first move when really, it doesn't pose any sort of actual threat, and China may not be on board with that rationale.
I wonder if that would be enough to invoke article 5 of NATO. Shit would really hit the fan then.
I wonder if Kim thinks the U.S. doesn't have any more nukes since Alex Rodriguez 'retired.' No more A-Bombs from A-Rod?
I wish you good fortune in the wars to come.
I wish the U.S. secretary of defense. and U.S. secretary of state. Used any means of communication that didn't require a subscription to read. Here's what they wrote in a joint statement:
I wish the U.S. secretary of defense and U.S. secretary of state used any means of communication that didn't require a subscription to read. But you should have made an effort to find what they wrote directly rather than through a clickbait summary. Here's what they wrote in a joint statement:
I was watching this earlier, and in it a NK defector talks about food-aid and how he believes it's NK's goal. The government in North Korea will tell its citizens that all aid is sent by NATO / Red Cross (as opposed to also SK and the US) as a result of great diplomacy by NK.
I was stationed on the ship that shot down that satellite. Look up operation burnt frost if you want to know more.
I want to be the guy that names operations
I used to be a waste lander like you, until I took a mininuke to the knee
I understand our obligation to retaliate. But this is not good news.
I thought so too before I started digging about all of this and it was honestly scary.
I think you have to measure his statements within the context of them being responses to some reporter who's probably going banana blast nuts over the situation.
I think you all should be watching and listening to "Mad Dog" Mattis. He'll beg them ,with tears in his eyes, to back down, or he'll effing kill them all. Or something similar. Trump wouldn't make that call, his advisors are probably controlling everything, except the Presidents mouth.
I think this launch was dependent on b1b flights from Guam to SK. There haven't been any for the last 12 hours. But that's just speculation.
I think this is the quote they are reffering to. You can read the rest of the KCNA release and more articles from them here.
I think it was more to silence any dipshit reporters that would question whether NK firing a missile near Guam is an act of war. That's why he simplifies it by saying "yes, that's called war if they shoot at us".
I think all these crucifixes will be seen as bad taste.
I support almost nothing Trump has done, but this is not at all his fault.
I saw in a movie once that I can survive a nuclear blast in a refrigerator; so I'll be in there if anybody needs me!
I reserve the right to not survive to see a world where the living envy the dead.
I really don't like Trump but I hate that no matter what he does in this situation he'll get shit on. In many ways NK is a lose lose situation, and a lot of people will criticize WHATEVER Trump does in response.
I really don't know enough about China to have an idea of how they would respond, but where do you think the line is for North Korea's "first move"?
I pray that trump has handed military response authority over to Mattis should missiles turn to birds.
I never said it was. I meant that the fact that China is staying neutral is the "good news", not the threat of war.
I meant that if this situation was escalated to a war, I think that the USA and our allies will be able to make sure that as many people as possible are safe.
I mean, what is he supposed to do (or say) though, really.
I mean, they're only 5.5 games back from the Red Sox, and a game and a half up for the Wild Card. Not exactly "miserable" from where I'm sitting.
I mean, that still works; he's probably the least chaotic member of the administration as well.
I mean, it goes without saying that a direct strike on the US would mean war.
I mean, have you seen that guys haircut?
I mean if they launch missiles towards the US it's only natural that we retaliate.
I live well out of the blast zone of the nearest targets (Atlanta Hartsfield and Dobbins AFB). Next month, I'm taking a canning class.
I like how this is somehow about Trump all of a sudden.
I laughed a little too hard at this. Thanks!
I know, I just want to get information instead of having it being used as a tool. When news is still unfolding it seems to be completely wild and harder to control so I don't have the stomach for it I suppose.
I imagine he means that you can't know, for sure, how long a particular rocket stage will burn. Without knowing that, at least, it'd be impossible to know exactly where it would land until its accelerant is spent.
I honestly thought I was in a /r/RedSox thread for a second. Had to check which thread I tapped on
I heard that South Korea changed its strategy since the 90s by securing Seoul in any direct conflict with North Korea.
I hear Jesus is coming back too.
I have no idea what site is actually the most credible source of news in Australia, I just know if it's made-up and/or irrelevant, it's a slow news day.... and perhaps that's a good sign -- no 'actual' news is good news.
I have a well and I have a generator that will run the well pump.
I grew a huge something back there when i was in college. I was amazed by it, and asked some students what it was. It grew in complete darkness, Without nutrients. What was that? It was blue, and looked like an anemone.
I got a kneecapper's fat man.
I found this comment a good one regarding north korea.
I feel like "war" with NK would be like leftover Lannisters vs. Dothraki and a dragon
I don't think it does, after the initial onslaught is over China and Russias geopolitical situation remains the same regardless, they want the US not to be able to station bases in what is now North Korea, they will do so by funding insurgents to deny the US of the territory. Where it escalates from there is anyone's guess.
I don't know where this quote comes from, but it's accurate..
I disagree with the final analysis you have. The whole point of the current state of nuclear policy in the world is that no matter who strikes first, you have mutually assured destruction. It prevents any nation from firing nuclear weapons. The second you can reliably destroy many of those weapons, MAD no longer applies. A first strike + the defensive system would be able to destroy a nuclear armed country.
I could go on. But my point is that things are so fucking nuts that even though I'm almost certain NK won't provoke war I'm doubting myself a bit because I in no way predicted this insane timeline.
I chuckled at the fact that he basically took a second to immediately correct himself if a foreign power attacks us.
I checked many Korean major newspapers. They are quiet on this issue. In fact one article that I found on Chosun.com (the biggest newspaper in Korea and most "trustworthy") says that Kim for now will be "watching" US's future action and behavior meaning there's nothing imminent to worry about. I found similar articles in various other major newspapers as well that implies the tension is loosening.
I can't find this from any other sources.
I break legs 20% faster with a goddamn nuke
I believe he is rather unpolitical.
I am willing to spend 5% of our budget on defense if it means we get all these cool toys AND keep the world at peace.
I am so sick of this shit.
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I agree with that, but I was talking about the idea of defensive capabilities in general, not for this specific situation.
I agree completely. I don't know why so many people just assume the US would win, I mean of course, but there are many hidden costs here that the surrounding countries want to avoid.
Hypothetical:
Hwasong-12 (range 5000-6000km) and Hwasong-14 (range 6,700-10,000km) missiles are the biggest threat.
However, as soon as it happens we have to move, fast. Of course the US is militarily superior in every way, we're fucked AMERICA, but North Korea still has the potential to inflict some serious damage, especially because we haven't perfected missile defense, and probably won't for a while.
How fast can we sew on a new star to the flag?
How do you rate this attraction?
how do you know so much about our missle defense? Genuinely curious, I am always trying to research it but come up short
How do they know that the rocket missed its target by a couple miles or so? If it breaks the countries ocean boundaries, that's a first move. North Korea is being the annoying kid at the pool who gets two inches from your face saying "I'm not touching you" over and over again. Eventually, the kid is going to get slapped.
Hopefully they try the 48th parallel this time. They'd be invading Siberia instead of SK.
Honestly, given the geopolitical power parity between the US and the DPRK at that time, 20 years ago was a prime time for us to invade them.
Honest question, which Charlottesville thread are you referring to, and why?
Holy shit, that article sets a completely different tone. Almost hard to believe they are actually reporting on the same set of events.
Hold on, let me check the war manual.
hm.....................
Hi there, just pointing out that by Australian standards, consuming information from news.com.au is roughly akin to drinking from the toilet.
hey, neither are the Russians, and they put Trump in power!
He's truly an amazing man. Intelligent, analytical, unbelievably well read, and diplomatic. If Mattis were to run for president, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.
He's polite, he's proffesianal, but he has planned how to kill the North Koreans. Mad Dog Mattis oorrah
He's in very bad health and his regime is in very bad shape. His peoole are starving worse than ever before. And they are learning more than ever before. And their god king has diabetes and a terrible smoking habit. His only way to maintain control is through these tests. But his older advisers will keep them from doing anything stupid. And remeber, they have agents in SK just like SK has agents there. We both know whats good.
He's backed down from his threat on Guam.
He's a thorough professional, through and through.
He's a North Korean spy.
He's a good man, and thurra.
He's a good boy.
Here is a table outlining ABM effectiveness and performance. Note how GMD is the only ABM type that does not have "Not Applicable" in the ICBM column. As you can see THAAD and SM-3 are useless against ICBMs.
Heh, I remember they freaked a few years back when we flew a B2 all the way from Idaho, over to SK and back without landing it.
He still hasn't gotten over Jackie Bradley Jr. robbing him of that home run.
he really wouldn't be. spies, reconnaissance, and foreign intermediaries would have much better information than Rodman, who probably only has a few conversations about sports and culture to report. Dennis Rodman is however the only American known to have ever met Kim Jong Un.
He needs to get back on track. His dad throwing BP and him hitting them into orbit is our ICBM defense system.
Haha I get it cause your username!
Ha, when I first saw this wall of text in my inbox I thought Oh god, I must've really pissed someone off...
Guess I won't be sleeping for a while.
Guam is a territory that is both below the Tropic of Cancer and not in the North Atlantic.
Good news? NK will make the first move which means China is not getting involved.
Good god, I'm terrified at how refreshing this is.
GMD consists of 3 dozen missiles stationed in Alaska and has very limited capability against ICBMs with an overly optimistic "at best" 50% intercept probability. This is further limited by the tiny number of interceptors available for the GMD , thus the entire US GMD capability becomes saturated by just 10 primitive ICBMs with no decoys or MIRV. Even with just 12 warheads the probability of no missiles getting through is sub 20%. If you change the number of incoming missiles to say 20-30 then you are already looking at a likely scenario with 10-15 penetrations.
Fuckin righto mr paranoia.. Millions of people all over the world collect rainwater in tanks which fit your exact description and there is no problem unless something gets in there and dies.. Calm down
Fuck, thought it started next week. I missed it :(
Fuck, better clean my bathtub
FUCK THE YANKEES
FTFY
Fortunately the military is run by people who actually know the real answers to such things.
Forget them intentionally launching one, look at how many times the US and Soviet Union almost accidentally launched one or had a false alarm that the other had and nearly responded. Those were the two best militaries in the world and they came close to fucking up several times. These clowns are bound to fuck up for sure if they get launching capabilities.
For the US the main issue would be showing their hand when it comes to how effective those defensive systems are. These tools have never actually been used in combat, and showing off these capabilities on a smaller foe could give too much information to larger foes.
For the rest of the world, it was V-J Day, the day the war ended against the Japanese after four years of war. However, for us Koreans, it was a liberation day after thirty five years of oppression. Starting from 1910, when Korea was forcibly annexed, thousands of people died resisting the oppressive Japanese government. The Japs took crops and land from Korean farmers by force, forced Koreans to change names to Japanese ones, and tried to remove Korean culture for good. During WW2, Japanese military forcibly conscripted either into the Army, or to work on Japanese occupied islands in the Pacific to build airstrips and fortifications.
Fine by me. All the republicans I'm friends and family with love that Trump pretty much delegates all of the military decisions to Mattis. Trump cares about the economy, and he's letting someone with tons of experience handle foreign affairs. I trust Mattis 100% with this situation.
Find out at 11!
Fill yr bathtubs
Except usually the inside of your reservoir is never cleaned, and a dark, damp area is great for bacteria. Just like your faucet aerator probably has mold on it if you've never wiped it.
Exactly. And Kim wants to keep power. That's how all the good dictators do it
Exactly why he'd make a good president. Exactly why he'd never be elected.
Everyone's been worried about the attack on the fire nation during the solar eclipse but they were completely overlooking the attack on korea during the statecraft release..
Everyone's a critic
Everyone calm the fuck down...
Everyone calm down. http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-fg-guam-north-korea-20170814-story.html
Every single NK specialist says the same thing over snd over. North Korea isn't crazy. It's never been crazy. It's an ultra rational brutal regime that understands what it's doing. NK has never been irrational in its pursuits.
Even more reason for a rapid response, even less time to react.
Even if you dragged a Block IIA equipped Ticonderoga-class cruiser onto land, into DPRK territory and parked it right next to the ICBM launcher and then fired an SM-3 just seconds after the ICBM - the interceptor will not be able to catch the ICBM. In fact the launch time would be the closest that interceptor would ever get to the ICBM. In a real scenario there would be a significant time delay, radar limitations and geographic distance to set the SM-3 even further behind.
ELI5 how you shoot down/intercept a nuclear missle without it detonating?
Either it is successfully shot down in the outbound phase, or it makes it through defenses and lands in the sea as planned.
Eh. I'd go with my recently-filled tub first. Since it's wet all the time it's possible stuff has been growing in there. Otherwise it should be perfectly potable water.
Eh, steal the biggest boat you can find and head offshore.
Edit: The day Japan surrendered WWII. Taking a lot of credit for something they did little about IMO.
Edit: swift my be a bit of optimism on my part
Edit: Personally I think Mr. Un knows better. He went to school in Switzerland. Meaning he's been outside the bubble and knows how the real world works. Firing that missile(s) would be his final act. But he has to uphold the appearance of no fear for the sake of his con. Just hoping the shit talk stays just that.
Edit: my comment was not meant to reflect tried and true military/political protocol. I don't know what I'm talking about... It was only a thought.
Edit: just wanted to clarify that Aegis and THAAD are only capable of making the intercept if the missile is on the boost phase. If it's on mid course or terminal phases then things get a lot worse. GMD which is stationed in Alaska can intercept an ICBM on mid course but it's even less reliable than Aegis is. Aegis ABM and THAAD are both derived from missile systems meant to shoot down aircraft. They have been optimized and extended for the new role but at the end of the day they can't and probably never will be able to intercept an ICBM at any stage of its journey. GMD is quite literally shooting a spaceship down by hitting it with another spaceship. Needless to say that's not easy. All of these systems are also pretty new as military hardware goes and also untested in a real scenario. They have worked in tests but those were tightly controlled and we knew the specifications of the target as well as where it was going. The closest real world situation we have is probably the early patriot systems shooting down scuds in the Gulf War, almost 30 years ago. I shouldn't have to tell you how different this is.
Edit: Just let that sink in for a second. Dennis fucking Rodman is likely one of the best intel assets on North Korea that the CIA has.
Edit: I'm in NY, anyone know if/how I can stream the west coasts broadcast?
Edit: For everyone asking me for a link to the stream, unless I've missed something, NK hasn't nuked anyone so I'm not eating dog shit...yet.
Edit: Fixed E.S.T instead of E.D.T. Oops!
edit: Despite what people are replying with, I actually don't want innocent Koreans to die. I don't want Japanese to die. I don't want anyone to die. I don't want a war.
edit: deleted 1 word because I didn't like how it sounded
edit: And the United States REALLY doesn't want to shoot those counters. Beyond the war that would be the response, if the counters work then the world may shift to a global missile defense arms race with more counters and more things like "stealth" missiles explored. That's not a race this planet wants to have. The United States likely much prefers the unknown realm of how effective missile counters are.
Edit for your edit
Dota 2 card game with the salt of CS:GO, LoL, and Overwatch with the neglect of TF2, HL3, and Day of Defeat
doot doot
Don't write off NK's 'power'. While they're of course no match against any world power, we all started somewhere. They may not have the arsenal touted by the US, but they do still have ICBMs and nuclear capabilities, the latter bring confirmed capable of putting on the former. They may not be 'powerful' in the USA-China-Russia(etc) way, but a madman with a gun can cause a lot of havoc. Let's all hope it fizzles out, and that fear was well placed but unconfirmed.
Don't sweat it, dude: They have no ICBM capability. They're like literally half a world away.
Don't let the prolonged insurgency operations fool you into thinking the US can't disable a technologically inferior military in a jiffy.
Does the missile have to have a nuclear warhead? Say it lands in the surf, 1 meter from the beach. At what point do you just say "look, effectively, Guam was attacked."
DoD was always my favorite mod. Avalanche was my jam
Do it or don't. I've got places to be.
Didn't we go to war with Iraq over some satellite pictures as well?
Did you just assume my time zone?
Dem Aaron Judge strikeouts tho...
Defense Secretary James Mattis says North Korean attack on U.S. could "escalate into war" quickly (CNN)
Dear God...this is worse than I imagined.
Damn, I forgot DoD was even a thing.
Crazy, but not stupid. Dictators who maintain power can be paranoid, and crazy, but they know how power works, and they are far from stupid.
Considering we already knew where our tests were going to go, it doesn't bode well when you think of having to intercept a missile that wasn't planned in your schedule.
Come on, for fucks sake. You know nothing about Korean history but you're just underrating what was happening. You're making Reddit more ignorant.
Chinese led regime change would be the best possible outcome. They would never allow North Korea to become a US allie sat on their border:
China will proxy war against the US to get it out of NK territory before it can build bases on the Chinese border.
China will not assist NK given they have nuclear weapons and are threatening to use them now, period.
China really can't afford to fund a large insurgency right now and insurgencies tend to create lots of refugees, which China also can't handle.
China has always honored its treaties; they waited until the Soviet treaty expired before attacking Vietnam (a Soviet ally)
China has a strong incentive to pursue the same goals as the U.S. The North Korean regime’s actions and the prospect of nuclear proliferation or conflict threaten the economic, political and military security China has worked to build over decades. North Korea’s behavior further threatens China’s long-term interest in regional peace and stability. If China wishes to play a more active role in securing regional peace and stability—from which all of us, especially China, derive such great benefit—it must make the decision to exercise its decisive diplomatic and economic leverage over North Korea.
China does not want to get unwillingly dragged into a nuclear war with the US by Kim. Who the hell would.
Check out Day of Infamy, Valve allowed them to remake some DoD maps including Avalanche
Calling it now... they're not gonna do shit.
By the time the first rocket stage of an ICBM stops firing the missile is 200-300km up and is travelling at Mach 20-25. That is just 1-3 minutes into the flight. That is already several times beyond the top speed parameters of an SRBM or IRBM for which the japanese system has been designed.
By Jonathan Cheng Updated Aug. 14, 2017 9:36 p.m. ET
By Jim Mattis and Rex Tillerson The Wall Street Journal
-Butch
But you're willing to sacrifice Seoul (25.6 million) and possibly Tokyo (38 million) to do so? There's nothing about this problem that's clear-cut and simple.
But you're actually on EDT, not EST.
But with an umbrella
But with an ICBM...wait
But with a shotgun.
But there's nothing to suggest that will ever happen. And the world should never tolerate a guy like Kim having a stockpile of nuclear ICBMs, period. If the trajectory continues as it has for years, the problem is just going to get worse, and the inevitable conflict will produce geometrically more casualties every year that we twiddle our thumbs and hope for the best.
But then a kaepernick article shows up and ruins that too
But now is my chance: I knew about it. I knew about it and I knew what it looked like. I knew because I saw one in the air on a clear evening, in distress and limping toward Nellis. I was like 7 or 8 and was playing out in the vast stretches of empty desert near my home in Vegas when I heard a jet with an obvious problem heading toward me. I'd spent a lot of time in and around the Air Force base because my Dad was a fighter jock and knew what a healthy jet engine sounded like. This wasn't it.
But Mattis has been a calm voice of reason through this. So him saying it could escalate to war very quickly seems like an actual big deal.
But it's fair to say ANY shots remotely near another country would be an inflammatory act.
But it boils down to this: Kim has been on a very clear trajectory for a while. He's only gotten more belligerent as his capacity to make war has grown. And he has declared his intention to amass a stockpile of nuclear ICBMs. If you think there's a point at which he'll become calm and rational, and denuclearize, then great. No worries.
but i jizz in the shower
Best timeline.
Best case scenario, we obliterate the current regime, then hand it off to the Chinese as a sign of good faith diplomacy.
Believe it or not, Trump is not the bad guy in this situation.
because there is no diplomatic excuse for this.
Because North Korea surprise invaded across the 48th parallel and that fomented the Korean War, we have to believe that they continue to believe in a first strike takeover of the Korean peninsula.
Attacking missile sites is another can of worms. That escalates the conflict even further and the moment the US attacks the missile sites, it will drag SK into the fray. If the US is going to attack the missile launch sites, it had better be prepared to immediately help defend SK from a NK assault.
At minimum you could boil it and then be perfectly sure
At least people on both sides are finally seeing this now. Those of us in the middle were treated like we were crazy or on the other side because we called this shit out.
Assuming they do work, we have around 70 interceptors on the West Coast. In a real life scenario we'd use more than one interceptor per missile (incase one of them fucks up, we don't want all our lives being lost cause our only interceptor didn't work), assuming North Korea fired more than one. We could potentially exhaust our interceptors before North Korea exhausts their own ICBM supply (which isn't that many, so we should be good if it's a short term war).
Assuming that you don't use any kind of cleaning tablets or similar products, it should be okay. Probably not ideal, or necessarily the cleanest, (I mean, how often do you clean THAT part of the toilet) but better than nothing in an emergency.
Aside from that, just like China doesn't want a US-assisted South Korea extending all the way through current-day North Korea next its border, the US and South Korea don't really want China extending down the peninsula right next to South Korea either. Especially considering Seoul is right on the border. It's really better to have an independent country there, if possible, which isn't for sure of course.
As they have been for a while now.
As someone who works closely with the US Navy I can confirm they’re only hope was with Mattis. The number of sailors reading Aristotle following his appointment was staggering. He truly is their command in chief.
As if China would just let us roll up to their southern border. Get real.
As far as your point about overstating such a system as a tactical advantage look no further than Reagan's "Star Wars" initiative.
As an Australian I can trust a Marine. No other American soldiers but I have, would and will trust a marine to hell and back. Oorah.
As always, we will embrace military preparedness in the defense of our homeland, our citizens and our allies, and in the preservation of stability and security in Northeast Asia. And we will say again here: Any attack will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons will be met with an effective and overwhelming response.
Are they attacking or not, make up your minds. Fuck.
Apparently NK has decided not to launch a missile at Guam, but this says they are moving missiles into position.
Apparently easy in particular because all big programs have to be shown to the congress.
Anyhow it was a lot lower than I'd expected based on the sound (it was very quiet relative to the F-4s, F-15s and F-16s I was used to) and it looked like it should not be in the air. With my angle and the dim light it looked like it didn't even really have wings. I could tell it was headed toward Nellis but it was the craziest thing I'd ever seen.
And you cannot hide such a system. If you want to test it's real capabilities, you have to launch a fake ICBM which does a suborbital hop. And that'll light up on everyones monitors.
And there's probably several hundred thousand US expats/tourists/soldiers/exchange students/teachers living in each of those cities. Anyone who has a simple solution for the NK issue doesn't know the issue well enough.
And if they keep it up, hopefully there isn't anyone to take his place. I'd love for it to end peacefully, but if that isn't the case...I think he needs to be put in his place.
And I think there's a 90% chance that is exactly what will happen. The only reason I have 10% doubt is that, as a somewhat reasonable person, if someone told me that 2016-2017 politics would be markedly affected by Pepe memes, Trump would be president and would demonstrate apparent reluctance to condemn Nazis, and was (briefly) represented by an Italian stereotype who replaced a press secretary who literally hid from reporters in some bushes, all while firing the FBI director and publicly stating he did so because he didn't like being investigated and no one in his party cared...
And here's the non-inflammatory version of this action.
And for a somewhat better cause.
And don't forget, 1 tbsp of bleach to 1 gallon water makes it potable, with some exceptions.
And anyway, Kim's full of shit just like the last 5,482 he's rattled his tiny saber. Fuck that obese munchkin.
An Aegis system definitely shot down a satellite crashing towards Earth at a reported 17,500 mph in under 10 seconds once. It is practically tested, as well as range tested and simulation tested.
Alternatively, ABC is still as reliable as ever.
Also, the water in the back of the toilet is safe.
also you have an entire water heater full of clean water.
Also there were tremendous and desperate efforts to take the country back, a lot of Korean resistances were sacrificed.
Also putting a tube down the toilet and pushing it up through the u-bend offers safe air to breath. It's recommended in the event of a fire or other situation where you can't get oxygen otherwise.
Also doesnt apply with irrational actors. MAD relies on the other side not wanting to die. If one of the sides doesnt give a fuck if it gets obliterated, all bets are off.
All South Korea needs to do is hire RTS ESport pros to plan the war effort and NK doesn't stand a chance!
Agree with him, reminds me of the Anabaptist occupation of Munster back in the 1500s. They kept taking it to new extremes when prophecies were not fulfulled.
Aegis destroyers are also a no-no.
Actually, I'd say that's exactly why Trump's campaign succeeded. People don't trust the career politicians he was up against.
Actual answer here - I have a degree in War and Security so I feel I should weigh in:
According to article 6, an attack on Guam is not valid to invoke article 5.
Absent China using its influence to show the world how a great power should act to resolve such a well-defined problem as North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missile capability, others in the region are obliged to pursue prudent defensive measures to protect their people. China’s Security Council vote was a step in the right direction. The region and world need and expect China to do more.
A timezone where man evolved from Corn!
A rogue state would likely be firing off more than one missile along with a number of decoys -- while we certainly could obliterate North Korea in response, chances are pretty likely that we would fail to intercept all of them. Unfortunately, the analogy of hitting a bullet with another bullet is very much still in play.
A rocket launched towards Guam, hitting "nearby" makes it sound like we're supposed to wait and see BUT - Guam is not just US territory, it's also a major base for the land-based nuclear retaliation forces of the US (along with the center of continental US). And a major naval base for projecting US power in a drawn-out conflict.
A NK civil war would be horrific, millions would die of starvation and pure genocide. Any rebellion would need to be by an arm of the military, and SK would have to pull a Crimea and hold a "vote" to reunify the countries. Even then, the region is so unstable, SK would have to pour billions - if not trillions - into it in order to house and feed the starving refugees, create towns, cities and infrastructure, farming.. It would take years, and a lot of money.
a lot of the tech we have today wouldn't be possible or available without the military and its budget, so dont fret to much. but of course with any govt spending there is usually frivolous things, so things shouldnt go unchecked.
A friendly non-nuclear NK that isn't egging on the US would easily be worth the disputed claims in the South China Sea.
A couch.
20 years ago China would have been more likely to escalate the situation than today.
16% goes towards defense. To put that into perspective 26% goes to Social Security and 24% to Medicare/caid.
+1 I appreciate the in-depth reply, but I'd love to get your opinion on the best in-depth readings on this topic, specifically something that expounds on the food crisis in NK
“If the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions on the Korean Peninsula and in its vicinity, testing the self-restraint of the DPRK, the [North] will make an important decision as it already declared,” the report quoted Mr. Kim as saying.
...he prefers his call sign "Chaos" instead of mad dog from an interview I read.
.......I dont know if I should fear the coming apocalypse or look forward to /r/outside's nuclear wasteland survival update
(Typical Yankees fan cynicism from Kim, amirite?)
(not discrediting your post, but note that this person isn't who was replied to?)
(For a deeper analysis of the issues in this story, please see “North Korea Backs Off Threat to Hit Guam”)
"ZOMG!!! WHAT IF THEY SHOOT A MISSILE AT AMERICA?!"
"You're a pretty cool guy. Don't go to the US tomorrow."
"Yes, that's called war, if they shoot at us." Lol this guy.
"Yes, that’s called war, if they shoot at us."
"Yes, that’s called war"
"Wait, you've been wearing my mutilated corpse around as trophies? How barbaric!"
"The report comes as US Secretary of Defence James Mattis warns any further escalation could rapidly lead to war: “Yes that means for a lot of young troops they’re going to be in a wartime situation"
"Sorry, didn't see the red dot"
"Please vote."
"North Korea's Kim holds off on Guam missile plan; Seoul says will prevent war by all means" - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKCN1AU04U
"Moon, half of the second batallion just got nuked"
"Kinda like going up to Jackie Onassis with a rifle pendant on, you know. 'Thinkin' of John, Jackie.'"
"it could escalate to war"
"I think if they fire at the US it could escalate to war very quickly."
"BLURGHALHAHL WAR!? LIKE A REAL WAR?!?!"
- Bill Hicks
Where can I learn more?
watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot.
Trump vowed last week that the U.S. would respond to an attack from North Korea with "fire and fury," and is "locked and loaded" should the country come close to attacking Guam.
Today is a public holiday in North Korea (Liberation of the Fatherland Day), and previous missile launches have been timed to coincide with such calendar events to maximise internal propaganda impact.
Their entire subway system doubles as a nuclear/chemical bunker. It's not like they haven't considered the possibility of attack.
The second you can reliably destroy many of those weapons, MAD no longer applies.
The best time to disarm him was ten years ago, the next best time is today.
Taking a lot of credit for something they did little about IMO
So this is unstable. We're not going to risk losing a city the size of Los Angeles (18 million people) over the lives of the people of NK (25 million). This can't go on.
requiring his Marines to be well-read in the culture and history of regions in the world where they are deployed
People've been saying that regarding Korea for the last twenty sixty years
on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
North Korea’s has today repeated previous assertions that its plan was to fire missiles to land in the ocean “near” Guam, not at Guam itself. The US has stated this would be an unacceptable provocation.
Nobody knew about the F-117 Nighthawk until we were bombing the Iraqis with it and they couldn't shoot back
Military service
Mattis told reporters in Washington this morning the situation could escalate to war “very quickly”. He said it could be assessed “within moments” if a missile fired from North Korea was on track to hit Guam. If missiles were fired at US bases: “I think if they fire at the US it could escalate to war very quickly ... Yes, that’s called war, if they shoot at us.”
just wanted to clarify that Aegis and THAAD are only capable of making the intercept if the missile is on the boost phase.
I thought our missile defense capabilities were far beyond what you outlined.
Edit: Just let that sink in for a second. Dennis fucking Rodman is likely one of the best intel assets on North Korea that the CIA has.
do you just swipe it under the carpet for tomorrow?
dead Americans in the American territory
Because North Korea surprise invaded across the 48th parallel and that fomented the Korean War, we have to believe that they continue to believe in a first strike takeover of the Korean peninsula.
Asked how the U.S. would respond, Mattis initially declined to say. When pressed, he said that if U.S. radars and other detection and tracking systems determine that a missile was going to fall into the sea, short of Guam, then the matter would be taken to President Donald Trump for a decision on how to respond.
artillery pieces all around that border, pointed all over Seoul area and other cities in range. With more than 20m South Korean people within range.
An Aegis system definitely shot down a satellite crashing towards Earth at a reported 17,500 mph in under 10 seconds once. It is practically tested, as well as range tested and simulation tested.
... (but) he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot,”
"If they shoot at the United States, I'm assuming they've hit the United States. ... If they do that, then it's game on."

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US satellites observe North Korea moving missiles into position, Mattis warns of high alert

KIM’S SECRET MESSAGE

DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

‘DELIGHTFUL HISTORIC MOMENT’

‘WARTIME SITUATION’

HOLIDAY SPECTACLE?

INTERNATIONAL CONCERN

ALL COMMENTS

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