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Making waves

Australia's move to dump a massive contract with France for conventional submarines and switch to nuclear-powered vessels built with U.S. help has significant ripple effects for global security.

The first takeaway is the U.S. geopolitical priority is China, China, China. The submarine plan is the centerpiece of an enhanced U.S.-U.K.-Australia alliance with the goal of countering Beijing. President Joe Biden has spoken of the need to train his energies on China, and the recent withdrawal from Afghanistan reflects that too.

The second is Biden wants Australia to have an elevated role in Asia supporting the U.S. militarily, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison shares his view of Beijing as the biggest threat over the long term. That's even as this move will invite yet more trade peril for Australia's commodities-dependent economy and retaliation from China.

In China, it will reinforce the view that countries are trying not just to compete with it but contain it — to throw a military net around it, particularly in waterways like the South China Sea. Beijing warned the plan would stoke an "arms race."

For Europe, it's a spur to think about greater defense self-reliance as U.S. priorities lie elsewhere. It's awkward timing for the European Union's push for a broader role in the Indo-Pacific, given the U.S. sees the U.K. instead as the bigger partner.

It's a prestige blow to France — not just for the money but for President Emmanuel Macron, who already has a slightly fraught relationship with Biden. Paris has directed its ire over the contract shelving at the U.S., not Australia.

The French loss is the U.K.'s gain: It fits Prime Minister Boris Johnson's narrative of a post-Brexit "Global Britain" striding out of the European shadows and onto the world stage in its own right.

Australia won't have a nuclear submarine in the water for years. But the security impact will be immediate. Rosalind Mathieson

A Chinese nuclear-powered submarine. 

Photo credit: AFP/Getty Images

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Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here or check out prior episodes and guest clips here. A key guest on today's show will be House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, talking about Congress's busy autumn and the key legislative priorities.

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And finally ... Australia's prime minister trended on Twitter after Biden appeared to forget his name during their virtual press conference last night. Morrison spoke first, followed by Johnson, before Biden had his turn. "I want to thank that fella Down Under," Biden said. "Thank you very much pal. Appreciate it, Mr. Prime Minister." The hashtag ThatFellaDownUnder took off shortly afterward.

Biden listens as Morrison speaks via videoconference yesterday.

Photographer: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg




 

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