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China’s Evergrande risk

As President Xi Jinping looks to bring "common prosperity" to China, bailing out a billionaire isn't a great look.

Yet allowing a default at China Evergrande Group, owned by Hui Ka Yan, is also risky: The world's most indebted property developer has assets equivalent to 2% of China's gross domestic product. A collapse would hurt millions of homeowners, company employees and retail investors.

The company's bonds are down 75% since late May, and slipped further today after S&P Global Ratings said it was on the brink of a default. The credit assessor said Beijing would only intervene if contagion infected multiple other major developers.

Global investors are watching anxiously. Evergrande on Thursday must pay some $83.5 million of interest on a five-year dollar bond, and failure to do so within 30 days may constitute a default. It also owes $36 million on an onshore bond due the same day.

So far, Chinese officialdom has been silent. State-run media have barely mentioned Evergrande, even though Hui told staff he believed the company will step out of its darkest moment soon.

For Xi, the company's fate may come down to another risk assessment: What is the threat to the Communist Party? As much as the president enjoys cutting billionaires down to size, he likes staying in power even more. Daniel Ten Kate 

A trader at the New York Stock Exchange Monday amid a rout in global stocks. 

Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Falling short | Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a third term in Canada's snap election but failed to regain the parliamentary majority he'd sought. While he will be able to pursue his left-leaning agenda with the backing of smaller parties, his Liberals lost the popular vote to the Conservatives, with Canadians worried about growing debt levels and the transition from an oil-producing nation to a low-carbon economy.

Subs ire | The European Union is discussing a possible delay to trade talks with the U.S. amid outrage from France over a canceled Australian submarine contract that was scuttled in favor of a new defense pact with Washington and London. France asked the European Commission to postpone the first meeting of the Trade and Technology Council in Pittsburgh on Sept. 29, sources say.

  • France isn't the only country upset about the "Aukus" security pact. Some Southeast Asian nations fret the partnership could provoke China and spur a regional arms race.
  • U.S. President Joe Biden is due to meet separately with his British and Australian counterparts as leaders gather for the annual UN General Assembly. Biden speaks today at the UN while Xi will deliver a pre-recorded address via video.

The shift from fossil fuels to clean energy will accelerate demand for metals like lithium, cobalt and rare earths, a potential bonanza for investors. The transition could require as much as $173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, according to research provider BloombergNEF. 

Winter reckoning | Germany's resolve to expand renewable energy will be tested in the coming months as higher costs get passed onto consumers. While a rebound in demand and tight supplies have driven power, gas and carbon prices in Europe to records, the turmoil has barely caused a blip in campaign rhetoric ahead of Sunday's election.

  • The U.S. is growing concerned over Russia's restrictions on natural-gas exports amid fears some European countries may not have enough supply this winter.
  • The U.K.'s grid operator delayed the restart of a key power cable from France after a fire by almost a month, potentially deepening the nation's energy crisis.

Pushing back | Google employees joined politicians and activists blasting the internet giant for pulling a voting app from Russia's opposition leader ahead of parliamentary elections last weekend. Staff members protested the decision in internal forums and on a messaging board that has served as a breeding ground for disquiet within the company. One image circulating inside Google depicts a man reading a magazine below the slogan, "Putin the user first."

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Cultural war | Officials in China are seeking to narrowly define what — and who — is acceptable. The media regulator used the word "niangpao," which roughly translates as "sissy men" and is a slur to bully gay men, to tell TV companies to "strictly control the selection of program actors and guests." The move is linked to Xi's "common prosperity" drive, which aims to reduce economic inequality and, increasingly, extends to efforts to wipe out other kinds of difference.

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What to Watch

  • The Department of Homeland Security is probing a confrontation between border guards on horseback and Haitians seeking asylum in the U.S., with a video showing an agent waving what looked like a whip.
  • Melbourne's construction industry will shut for at least two weeks amid concerns that right-wing groups who infiltrated the union movement are behind violent anti-vaccination protests in the Australian city.

  • A member of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's delegation to New York is in isolation after testing positive for Covid-19, adding to concerns the UNGA could trigger a spike in cases in the city.
  • Sudanese forces quashed an attempted mutiny at a military barracks near the capital, after an apparent bid to overthrow the transitional government installed after Omar al-Bashir was ousted as president.

  • Europe's biggest trans-Atlantic airlines and airports reacted jubilantly to a U.S. decision to allow most vaccinated foreigners to enter the country, ending a ban in place since March 2020.

And finally ... The Taliban administration set up after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is only an interim one and over time will include women, minorities and professionals, the group's main spokesman said. His pledge, which included no timeframe, came as the group unveiled an all-male list of deputy ministers.

A demonstration for women's rights in Kabul on Sept. 3.

Photographer: Hoshang Hashimi/AFP/Getty Images

 

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