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A guide to fixing the movie business

The pandemic didn't kill the movie business. It did expose its flaws.

For years, studios and theaters have stifled efforts to change the moviegoing experience. They have maintained a status quo that has been good for the biggest studios and theater chains, but bad for independents and consumers. 

Theaters and studios have boasted of record box office figures in recent years by charging higher prices for tickets. But those records obscure two nettlesome data points. People are going to the theater less often than ever before, and the average theater is usually more than 70% empty.

Weekly moviegoing hasn't been a thing in half a century, but even people who used to go to the movies once a month now go every three months, if that. And yet, the movie business hasn't changed much about its business model to adapt to this new reality.

Here's the good news. The pandemic, while harmful at first, now offers an opportunity to reset the business. Studios have already forced theaters to accept that movies will be available online sooner than ever before. Stopping there would be a shame for everyone involved. Sure, "Shang Chi" is a hit. But that doesn't mean we should just go back to the way things were.

Here are a few changes that could make the movie business smarter – and the theater experience better for those of us who love them.

Implement flexible pricing

You pay the same price to see "Shang-Chi" on opening weekend as you do "Free Guy"  in its fourth week. You also pay the same price to see a movie on Wednesday night as you do on Saturday night.

Few businesses ignore basic supply and demand to this degree.  If more people want to see a new Marvel movie opening weekend than anything else, it should be more expensive. If more people go to see movies on weekends, those tickets should also be more expensive.

Raising prices comes with risk. If you charge too much for a new movie, people may not be able to go. But there are a lot of people who would pay $30 or $50 to see "The Eternals" on opening weekend.  Anyone who hesitates to pay that price could wait for a week or two when the price be lower. And if the person doesn't want to pay the price at all, they can wait to watch it at home.

This cuts both ways. You might entice people to come to see more movies if they knew there was a deal. Why not offer older Marvel movies on Tuesdays for $6? Or have a Friday night special for date night? Two tickets for the prices of one. Speaking of...

Experiment with programming

Watching a trailer for the new James Bond movie, the last with Daniel Craig, I was struck by a desire to revisit the previous installments. I can't be the only one. The Bond franchise is one of the most popular in movie history.

Why wouldn't theaters offer a new Daniel Craig Bond every week until the day that one opens? Surely there is as much demand for "Casino Royale" as "Malignant."

This doesn't just apply to movies by the way. Movie theaters offer massive screens, and comfortable seats. They are a good place to watch video entertainment in many forms.

Why not use theaters to show more of what people want to see? Big football games. TV series finales. Live concerts.  So many theaters are empty because they are playing movies most people didn't want to see in the first place for weeks longer than anyone has any interest. AMC just did a deal for NFL Sunday Ticket, so perhaps we are headed in this direction already.

Embrace streaming

The proliferating number of movies streaming at home could actually be a good thing for theaters. it enables them to offer more new product. If AMC took a new Netflix movie every week (with an exclusive window), it could replace some of the holes left by recent consolidation.

Sports teams feared TV until they realized the added exposure could benefit their bottom lines. There isn't such a stark divide between in person sports and home with movies, but it's similar.

Trying to stop people from consuming media the way they want to do it seldom works. The music industry didn't solve for piracy until Spotify offered a more convenient way to consume music online. 

The moviegoing experience has to be meaningfully different from or better than the at-home experience. Otherwise there is no reason to leave your house and spend a lot of extra money. 

To that end… better food, drinks and seats.

This is the one improvement theaters have started to embrace. But not fast enough. Why does every movie theater still offer the same assortment of snacks and sodas that they did years ago? Why don't more theaters offer alcohol, or meals?

I go to a movie at least once a month, and I always need to eat before or after. But what if I could show up and eat a meal at the theater? I saw "Shang Chi" at the Americana, a ritzy mall in Glendale. It's already got Din Tai Fung in the building, and great Armenian food from Mini Kabob near by. Why not bring them into the experience, or plan to offer In N Out on one night of the week?

These are just a few ideas, many of which companies have no doubt explored. One obvious hurdle is the consolidation (and thus homogeneity) of so many theaters. Different theaters should program to their immediate audience, not to some generic consumer. Unfortunately, the pandemic will only accelerate consolidation. But a cinephile can dream. — Lucas Shaw

The best of Screentime (and other stuff)

The Facebook Files
A remarkable series of stories about Facebook from the Wall Street Journal, covering how it allows celebrities to play by different rules, is used by drug cartels and couldn't stop vaccine misinformation.
A New Media Startup Treats Reporters Like Social Media Influencers
Profiling a new outlet covering Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Washington D.C.
Police Raids on Movie Screenings. Censors Closing in. Hong Kong's Filmmakers Fight to Stay Free
"Police raids on movie screenings — unimaginable in Hong Kong a few years ago — are the latest reality in Beijing's relentless suppression of the territory's civil liberties."
These Are the World's Richest Families
"As the pandemic reshaped the way we live and work, the 25 wealthiest families on the planet added $312 billion to their collective fortunes."
Norm MacDonald Was Tolstoy in Sweatpants.
A great tribute to the late comedian from Geoff Edgers.

The music industry's biggest company goes public

Photographer: Larry Busacca/Getty Images North America

Photographer: Larry Busacca/Getty Images North America

Universal Music Group will go public this week when owner Vivendi sells shares in the company the Amsterdam stock exchange. The listing is expected to value Universal at around $40 billion.

While UMG is an emblem of the music industry's turnaround, its value is also a reflection of a singular success story. No company in modern music history has dominated the charts to the degree that Universal has over the past few years. Last year, the company accounted for nine of the 10 biggest acts in the world. The year before that it had eight. This year, it is responsible for pretty much all the biggest new releases so far -- Drake, Kanye West, Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish and Morgan Wallen.

The architect of its strategy is Lucian Grainge, a British record executive who has fostered competition between the many labels under his umbrella. While Sony and Warner often have one or two labels humming at any given time, Universal often has anywhere from two to four labels with huge releases in the market concurrently. (The Financial Times has a glowing profile of Grainge, featuring cameos from Taylor Swift and The Weeknd.)

The music industry was near its nadir when Grainge took over the company in 2011. The company's value has more than tripled since 2014, and doubled in just the past four years. Credit Suisse valued UMG at about 10 billion euros (or $12 billion) in 2014, at which point most analysts thought it was worth less than that.

The Emmys!

One of the downsides of doing this newsletter on Sundays is that I can't respond to events that happen on Sundays (like the Oscars and the Emmys). I have a couple of thoughts on what the Emmys mean for Apple and Netflix that I am going to hold for next week.

But for now, know this… Netflix is going to end this year's cycle with the most wins. The company already has 34 wins. Here's the top five by company:

  1. Netflix 34
  2. Disney 21
  3. WarnerMedia 15
  4. ViacomCBS 8
  5. NBCU/Apple 7

Peacock prepares $2 billion soccer bid

All of the biggest media companies are exploring bids for the rights to broadcast (and stream) the English Premiere League, the world's top domestic soccer league.

Comcast has the rights through the end of the current season, and would like to keep them. The EPL has been a key part of its strategy for its streaming service Peacock. The EPL is also inclined to stick with Comcast's NBC, which has been a good partner.

But the EPL believes it can get the best deals if it takes the rights to the open market, where Disney, WarnerMedia, ViacomCBS and Amazon all potential bidders. The cost of the new deal is expected to top $2 billion and stretch at least six years (if not more). 

Sports leagues used to prefer short deals, but many of them are now opting for longer ones to ensure they get paid as the pay-TV universe shrinks.

The No. 1 movie in the world is…

 "Shang Chi." The film grossed about $22 million in North America this weekend, bringing its domestic total to $177 million and its worldwide total to $321 million.

Why ScarJo's lawsuit won't be the first of many

Two top Hollywood lawyers explain why actors won't be racing to copy the actress' suit against Disney.

"First, although hers was not the first such suit (albeit the first filed publicly), the average studio contract gives studios a lot of discretion to determine how to distribute their films — if they choose to release them at all. Absent something else — a series of buyouts, an email from the studio's chief counsel promising a wide theatrical release — the average profit participant has a steep road to climb.

Second, we've never met a client who preferred to litigate when there was a business deal to be done. In that vein, it's probably not a coincidence that the other stars who were rumored to be "unhappy" with their Disney day-and-date releases are now attached to sequels."

Deals, deals, deals

Live Nation will acquire a majority stake in OCESA Entretenimiento, one of the largest concert promoters in Latin America. The purchase price is about $441 million.

Live Nation initially announced this deal in 2019, but it was delayed by the pandemic. Consider this deal a sign of things to come. The pandemic was brutal for small promoters, venues and employees. But it wasn't so bad for the big players. Live Nation's stock has flirted with record highs during the pandemic, and will be able to use its durability to go out and acquire smaller players that it wants.

  • SM Entertainment, one of the biggest companies in K-Pop, is selling a 20% stake. Two Korean media giants are seen as the leading contenders to buy it.
  • Twitch is close to settling its dispute with the National Music Publishers Association, one of several music groups that has accused the live streaming site of violating its copyrights. (Speaking of Twitch, the Washington Post ran a very good story on its competition with YouTue this week.)

Weekly playlist

I saw Brittany Howard and Jamila Woods at the Hollywood Bowl Saturday night. Howard is one of the most captivating performers working today; her music is so much more resonant live than on record. I'm also a big fan of Woods' cover of Tracy Chapman's "Fast Car."

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