Header Ads

5 things to start your day

Good morning. A possible next phase of China's crackdown, signs of a Fed taper in fall and a French-British tussle over travel rules. Here's what's moving markets.

Evolving Situation

After France was left out when the U.K. loosened entry requirements for most of Europe this week, the French government has redoubled its efforts to get the U.K. to reverse Covid-19 restrictions on visitors from France, ahead of a British reassessment of those rules on Thursday. French Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said the U.K.'s policy requiring travelers from France to isolate for up to 10 days and take two tests is based on questionable science. Meanwhile, in an effort to curb Britain's 'pingdemic' of contact tracing notifications, the country's government has restricted the parameters of the National Health Service's Covid-19 phone app. 

'Spiritual Opium'

Just as a selloff in Chinese stocks, triggered by a broad-based regulatory crackdown in the country, seemed to have stabilized, Hong Kong-listed shares in games maker Tencent slumped by the most in a decade. The reason: An offshoot of China's official news agency denounced the "spiritual opium" and "electronic drugs" of games, stoking fears Beijing will next set its sights on online entertainment. Tencent's peers Netease and XD also slumped by more than 10% each in Hong Kong. However, the paper has since removed the online link to the article, and Tencent pared its losses.

Taper Timing

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support an announcement soon on scaling back the central bank's bond purchases if the next two monthly employment reports show continued gains. "I think you could be ready to do an announcement by September," Waller told CNBC in an interview late Monday. A few regional Fed presidents, including Waller's former boss at the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, have urged the U.S. central bank to get started this fall with tapering of bond buying in light of the risk of higher inflation.

Oil Risks

Oil prices are steadier on Tuesday but holding declines as investors weigh the potential impact of the delta coronavirus variant on demand. Traders also need to balance this against the action which has now been pledged by the U.S., U.K. and Israel against Iran over a deadly drone attack on a tanker last week, which could have implications for global oil markets, just as Iran's new president starts his term. On Tuesday, the oil sector will also be closely watching the latest earnings from BP, with the group under scrutiny over how much money it will return to shareholders. 

Coming Up…

Societe Generale and Standard Chartered earnings are already out the gate, with both joining banking peers in beating profit estimates. It remains a busy morning of mid-year results, with heavyweights including BMW, BP, Infineon and Stellantis on the agenda. Later, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has said he's no cheerleader for digital assets, is scheduled to speak about cryptocurrencies at the Aspen Security Forum.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

China's clampdown on private enterprise may have raised questions about the investability of the nation's stocks but traders have no such qualms about its government bonds. The benchmark Chinese yield slid to 2.8% Monday -- its lowest in more than a year -- as slower economic growth and a spike in virus cases boosted bets for monetary easing. Monday's rally follows seven consecutive weeks of gains, the longest winning streak since the trade war with the U.S. broke out in 2018. Investors like Chinese bonds for their premium to global peers -- more than 160 basis points in the case of 10-year Treasuries -- and their low correlations with the rest of the world. In fact the average 60-day correlation of a Bloomberg Barclays gauge of Chinese government bonds to an equivalent index of Treasuries has been basically zero over the last decade. That boosts their attraction to fund managers as a diversifier, particularly in an environment where Treasuries are seen by many as overvalued.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

No comments