Header Ads

5 things to start your day

OPEC deal, delta surge, and Biden's China rethink. 

Boosting output 

The deal reached over the weekend by OPEC and its allies to increase monthly supplies by 400,000 barrels a day reduces the risk of an inflationary oil-price spike. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded below $70 a barrel this morning. Strategists see the deal leading to some short-term price weakness as investors unwind bullish positions. While the deal reached over the weekend spans more than a year, it remains flexible with the alliance continuing their monthly meetings from September. 

Rising cases 

The resilience of the pandemic remains a major issue for the global economy. Cases are surging in Asia, with Indonesia's daily case count surpassing India, Singapore's hitting an 11-month high and Thailand reporting the highest number since the pandemic began. In Europe, the U.K. is lifting coronavirus restrictions today as cases there surge to the most in the world and Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating after his close contact and the nation's health minister tested positive. U.S. cases jumped more than 60% last week, and while hospitalizations remain a fraction of the peak, they too are rising rapidly

Trade deal? 

The Biden administration's view on the trade deal between the U.S. and China was clearly shown by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a New York Times interview where she said it failed to address the "fundamental problems we have with China." Her comments come as the world's two largest economies faceoff over over a vast range of issues from Hong Kong to human rights to the pandemic. In Congress, a recently passed House bill which aims to hobble China's ability to recruit American scientists shows Washington's willingness to confront the Asian nation's growing influence. 

Markets drop

The pandemic is front and center of investors minds this morning as global equity gauges plunge on renewed fears for economic growth. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.3% while Japan's Topix index closed 1.3% lower. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.6% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with energy and mining stocks the worst performers in a session that is seeing every industry sector drop. S&P 500 futures pointed to losses at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.259% and gold was down. 

Coming up... 

While it is a quiet day on the economic data front, it may be an interesting one for cryptocurrencies. Janet Yellen convenes a meeting of U.S. financial-market and bank regulators today to discuss rules for so-called stablecoins. While it will be come time before recommendations are issued, the meeting shows the increased scrutiny for coins. Also today International Business Machines Corp., PPG Industries Inc., Prologis Inc. and Steel Dynamics Inc. report results. 

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the weekend.

And finally, here's what Cecile's interested in this morning

A market narrative that's lurched from an inflation to a growth scare is tripping up Wall Street's most trusted strategists and hedge funds alike. Speculative investors, driven by surging inflation and stronger-than-forecast retail sales, have ramped up short bets on Treasuries even as yields keep falling. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, combined leveraged fund net-short positions in 20- and 30-year Treasury futures climbed to the highest since February last week.

It's a painful bet as benchmark Treasury yields skirt 1.245% Monday, the lowest since mid-February. One school of thought is that bonds are signaling they think policy makers will withdraw pandemic support too early. Another holds that global growth has already peaked and is now set to decline, and that a rebound built around hopes that the pandemic is over was always going to be fragile.

The question for the market is - will the shorts capitulate quickly, or are there diamond hands in the Treasury market?

Follow Bloomberg's Cecile Gutscher @CecileGutscher

Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

No comments